Does Nuggets Future Feature Gary Harris at Point Guard?
As a college player at Michigan State Gary Harris was one of the best players not only in the Big Ten but in the entire country. In high school he was a Parade Magazine All-American and Indiana State Gatorade Player of the Year. He was invited to the Jordan Brand Classic game and was rated as the number two shooting guard in the country according to the ESPNU 100, after averaging 25 points, 3 assists, 7 boards, and 4 steals per game. In college Harris was Big Ten freshman of the year, first team All-Big Ten and defensive team honoree, as well as honorable mention All-American in 2014.
It is inarguable that Garry Harris’s pedigree warranted a high draft pick and substantiated optimism surrounding his ability to be a franchise cornerstone for whatever team drafted him. He was a top-5 talent as a two way player available in the draft last year. Outside of Doug McDermott he was arguably the best shooter available in the draft. He was just as big a contributor as Andrew Wiggins or Jabari Parker especially considering the injury problems, himself included, that Tom Izzo’s team struggled with last year. He was consistent on the floor rarely experiencing a drop in production which can be largely attributed to his ability to dominate on either side of the floor.
The problem surrounding Gary Harris has always been his tweener status due to his skill set and his size. Harris undoubtedly has an “NBA body”, at 6’4, 210 pounds he has staying power in the league. However as the current season has unveiled, his skill set does not distinguish him as a pure point guard or enough of a scorers scorer to play the two-guard in big minutes. He has been stuck behind Ty Lawson, Aaron Afflalo, Randy Foye, and Jameer Nelson all season. When he does get minutes he has been relatively ineffective. Part of his struggles seem to be caused by indecision on his role and when to assert himself.
The Skill Set is There
Sep 29, 2014; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Nuggets guard Gary Harris (14) poses for a portrait during media day at the Pepsi Center. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
Coming out I saw Gary Harris becoming a Bradley Beal clone, except less athletic, more defensively focused, and optimistically a less injury riddled player. But what Beal has that Gary Harris doesn’t is consistency: whether it is in terms of position, locker room characters, and most importantly (granted they just got off of a six game losing streak) a winning atmosphere through a coach that has personnel to fit what he wants done on the floor. That said, Harris’s best option at reaching his star potential is playing point guard. The circumstances that he finds himself under currently, and the projection of his team and the league at large in four to five years make this so.
Harris was dominant at times on offense and almost always the best defensive player on the floor no matter who they played at Michigan State. The only player on his team that came close was the resident power forward/center Adreian Payne who averaged about a block and a steal a game with a 97.6 defensive rating per 100 possessions in his final season. In the same 2013-2014 season from the guard position, Harris averaged about a half a block, two steals, and a 99.3 defensive rating per 100 possessions. Part of what made him so good on defense was the fact that Gary took away the other teams’ best perimeter player on offense. His size and strength allowed him to get into the midsection of opposing wing players making it hard to be effective as a slasher or ball handler, and equally hard to effectively outmuscle him in the post. Guarding the other teams “one” he has the length, with a 6’7″ wingspan and 8′ standing reach, to not only get a good hand on just about every jumper but also to get his hands in passing lanes and disrupt a ball handlers rhythm in running the offense.
Offensively he was elite in the country, per 40 minutes he averaged 20.7 points, 3.3 assists, and 5 free throw attempts. In college he was a primary source of scoring. Whether he brought the ball up the floor or not, he either initiated the offense or at least got a touch for the majority of the possessions. He was the best three point shooter on the team and outside of Keith Appling he was the guy who was the late in the shot clock play maker. He didn’t play much point guard due to having both Trice and Appling’s roles defined as the point guard, but he easily could have stepped into that role. Harris was never out of the fold in the Spartan offense as he contributed .188 offensive win shares per 40 minutes (average is .100), a 26.8 usage percentage, a 51.8 effective field goal percentage, and a 22.5 PER.
Most importantly to the argument at hand was his 16.8 assist percentage, which defines the amount of field goals made that a player assisted on. For reference of his effectiveness Nik Stauskas, a player whose stock rose as high as it did due to his passing ability and who also didn’t have nearly as much backcourt competition, was at 18.8, Zach Lavine was 12.6, and James Young had a 10.8. So while Harris didn’t produce point guard like numbers in that category he was elite as a shooting guard. The potential is there for him to slide over if his college days are to count as anything.
Shaky Start
Nov 12, 2014; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Nuggets guard Randy Foye (4) during the game against the Portland Trail Blazers at Pepsi Center. The Trail Blazers won 130-113. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports
The backcourt logjam has been a definite hinderance to the development of the Nuggs first round selection. He was stuck behind players who, at this point in time, clearly offered a greater chance at winning games. Coming into the year the Denver Nuggets were supposed to contend for the six through eight seed in the Western conference playoffs due in large part to the talent level of the guards on the team. On paper Ty Lawson, Wilson Chandler, Aaron Afflolo, and Jameer Nelson as a backup point guard would be a daunting task to guard especially in an uptempo offense. Harris at best would have been a wildcard who could come in off the bench and score a corner three or two and get a couple of steals. But due to a conflict in coaching philosophy and roster content the Nuggets struggled and so did their rookie. Having held onto Afflalo up until the trade deadline kept Harris in a box not to be unleashed until there was less than half of the season left.
If anything this year should be considered a redshirt or a wash year for Harris as his learning curve has been steep to say the least. While playing time and team constitution have a lot to do with a rookies production level, Harris is responsible for his play as well. Going from the NCAA level to the NBA level a bump in intensity and concentration is necessary. An understanding of the circumstances on the court is something that is supposed to develop and lead to an uptick in effectiveness. So far rookies like Andrew Wiggins, Marcus Smart, Jordan Clarkson, and Elfrid Payton have all been steady contributors to their teams even in environments missing a winning atmosphere. These players have experienced change throughout the year, for example Payton’s head coach being fired and a spot opening up for Smart after the Rajon Rondo trade, and have had noticeable if not quantifiable upticks in activity and impact on the game. Wiggins had gone from being an almost unanimous expendable trade piece in the Kevin Love sweepstakes, to playing at such a high level that questions have started to rise about whether or not the Cavaliers actually won the trade. Rumors have even started to surface about the semantics of the trade and whether or not Wiggins would have been on the team still had he chosen Lebron James agent and the Klutch Sports Group.
Harris is not Wiggins in any context: talent level, athleticsm, body, or in the hype department. But Wiggins jump didn’t come as result of a new coach, or a new system, or being thrust into the starting lineup. Kevin Martin did go out early in the season so I wouldn’t turn my nose up at an argument that Wiggins got more of an opportunity in his absence, but the important thing is that Wiggins seized the opportunity and became a more aggressive assertive force on his team. Prior to the Afflalo trade and in the last 7 games Harris’s minutes went up to around 21 (his season average is 13). With that said, Harris’s scoring has only gone up to 6.3 (season average 3.6), he is only making 2 field goals (season average is 1), and there is virtually no difference in his 1 free throw made.
Future
Obviously Harris will need to ratchet up his production moving forward but Denver could be the place to make that happen. Head coach Brian Shaw has had a clear clash with the players on this Nuggets team. The roster is clearly consisting of remnants of George Kar’ls fast paced up and down style of game. The players on this team know to run and outscore their opponents while that is not what a Shaw team would look like and play like if he had his way.
Prior to becoming the Nuggets head coach Shaw was an assistant under Phil Jackson in Los Angeles for the Lakers and, under Frank Vogel and Larry Bird in Indiana for the Pacers. In Phil Jackson and Tex Winter’s “Triangle” offense the half court is the emphasis, ball movement and getting the best available shot by stressing and flexing the defense into getting out of position are the main objectives. While fast breaking is not discouraged the team tries to control tempo and grind the game out through getting higher quality looks than the opponent. In Indiana the emphasis of the team is defensively. Indiana tries to hold the other team to the least amount of points possible and shoot a high percentage in the paint and get wide open threes.
If Shaw were to combine these two principles into one system what you would see is a Memphis Grizzlies or Chicago Bulls type of team. Obviously the current roster does not fit this mold so struggling is to be expected. An almost complete overhaul would be needed because at just about every position personnel does not fit the system. Currently at point guard Ty Lawson and Jameer Nelson are neither going to be best suited in a slow, pick and roll offense as they both need to be out in the open court to find open shooters and passing lanes. Randy Foye and Wilson Chandler also don’t fit the system because they too thrive in running the fast break and getting open threes and dunks. However Danillo Gallinari, Kenneth Faried, and Jusuf Nurkic provide the size, scoring, and defense at the small forward through center positions to play in the half court.
Size is a big deal in half court teams because often times getting a good look will either come down to being able to see over or around your man to make a good backdoor or entry pass, or to even simply shoot over top of your man. At 6’4 Gary Harris posses the height to be an effective half court offense initiator. He also has the shooting stroke to make a defense play him honestly enough for him to get into the lane and distribute to an open big after his defender steps over to help, or to dish to Gallinari on the wing for an open three after his defender crashed the lane to stop the drive. He is a smart enough player to understand the complexities of a read and react half court game as well.
Obviously Harris will need to work on his game in all facets most importantly his ball handling and passing ability, but Gary Harris could be a really good player for years to come if he finds himself in the right position. An absolutely unrealistic player to pattern his game after would be Deron Williams. They are similar size and both are jump shoot first players with physical tools and mental dexterity to find and create shots for teammates. Luckily for Harris he will know his fate soon enough because either Brian Shaw will be fired and an uptempo head coach will be brought in, or the Nuggets will go into rebuild mode with him being the main focus for player development. If the Nuggets are smart they will hold onto their gem of a coach in Brian Shaw and let him build and win the way he wants to. If that happens, Harris’s defensive prowess combined with his offensive potential could lead to wins for years to come.