What Should The Nuggets Do With Their Salary Cap Space?

The Denver Nuggets have had one of the most disappointing seasons in recent memory. They were never contenders in the Western Conference and it ended up costing Brian Shaw his coaching job. He was replaced by Melvin Hunt a month ago, but the team has played sub-.500 ball with their interim coach in place. With the team sitting at 28-48, the only thing to look forward to is the upcoming offseason.

The NBA recently negotiated an eight-year extension with ABC/ESPN to air their product on television. The new deal is expected to send the league’s salary cap through the roof by 2017, but experts forecast that the cap will only have a modest increase this summer — from $63 million to $67 million. That number could go as high as $92 million in 2016, and then $110 million in 2017.

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How does that effect the Nuggets? With the way the current collective bargaining agreement is structured, a player that has been in the league six years or less can receive only 25-percent of the cap as a maximum salary. That means if the cap is set at $67 million for next season, the majority of free agents can receive $16.75 million annually. If those free agent opt to wait for 2016, they are looking at signing contracts in the neighborhood of $23 million annually. If teams have money to spend, they might as well try to lock players into long-term contracts before the cap takes a sudden spike.

The Nuggets currently have $46,797,433 in committed salary on their books for next season. If the cap is set at $67 million, the team could have $20.2 million in available cap space. This class could have big-name players such as LeBron James, LaMarcus Aldridge, Marc Gasol, Kevin Love, DeAndre Jordan, Paul Millsap, Jimmy Butler, Greg Monroe, Kawhi Leonard, Draymond Green, Al Jefferson, Tyson Chandler, Robin Lopez, Brook Lopez, Tristan Thompson, Monta Ellis and Wesley Matthews on the market. The Nuggets could go the route of attempting to sign one player to a maximum contracts, or they could fill out the roster with lesser-known, but high-quality players. However, before they can decide on a path to take in free agency, they will have a few decisions to make regarding their internal free agents.

Will Barton has been a surprise for the team since coming over from the Portland Trailblazers in the Arron Afflalo trade. I’m sure Denver would like to hold onto him, but he will be a restricted free agent. While other teams will be able to entertain the thought of signing him, Denver will be able to match any contract offer he signs due to his restricted status.

Jameer Nelson is the one player on the team who will have his own fate in his hands. He has a $3.25 million player option for next season and that could end up being a steal if he decides to exercise it. He has been one of the best sixth men in the league since Hunt took over as the interim coach.

The two biggest questions marks will be Wilson Chandler and Randy Foye. Both players have team options on their contracts; Chandler for $7.17 million; Foye for $3.14 million. Are these two players better than what the Nuggets could find on the open market, and would it be worth giving up this last opportunity to sign some bigger names for under $20 million?

When you break down Chandler’s game, you will find out he is a slightly above average player at his position. He is currently averaging 13.4 points, 6.0 rebounds and 1.7 assists per-game, while shooting 42.6-percent from the field and 34.1-percent from beyond the arc. His offensive game is one-dimensional, consisting of face-up drives to the hoop and a lot of three-pointers. He takes more three-point attempts than he really should (40.0% of his shots are threes) when you consider that he isn’t he even ranked in the top 100 in three-point percentage for forwards. It’s understandable that he would want to shoot long-range shots since his mid-range game in non-existent — he shoots 28.7-percent from that part of the floor.

Mar 16, 2015; Memphis, TN, USA; Denver Nuggets forward Wilson Chandler (21) lays the ball up against Memphis Grizzlies forward Zach Randolph (50) and Memphis Grizzlies center Kosta Koufos (41) during the game at FedExForum. Memphis Grizzlies beat Denver Nuggets 92-81.Mandatory Credit: Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports

While he has his flaws, if you understand how to use Chandler, he can be an effective player for your team. He is an above-average defender, especially on the perimeter — opponents shoot 33.0-percent from the three-point line against him. On offense, he will never be a catch-and-shoot three-point specialist. He is far more effective when he is able to make a move on his defenders. When he dribbles one time prior to taking a shot, his percentages jump up across the board.

Chandler will never be a player you can build a team around and I’m sure general manager Tim Connelly recognizes that. He is 27 years-old and he has pretty much plateaued over the past few years. Generally, he is a consistent player and you can feel comfortable having him start for your team, but he hasn’t been a reliable option in the clutch. In the last three minutes of a game where the Nuggets are down five points or less, he shoots 16.7-percent from the field, 12.5-percent from three, and 66.7-percent from the free-throw line, but the Nuggets aren’t paying for him to be a Damian Lillard-type player.

You would think that Foye could be that end-of-game shooter for the Nuggets, but he is pretty one-dimensional himself. He is currently averaging 8.0 points, 2.0 assists and 1.4 rebounds per-game, while shooting 37.2-percent from the field and 35.2-percent from the three-point line. He is a marksman who does nothing else but shoot long-range shots (64.3-percent of his attempts). You can’t really blame him; he can’t hit a shot from the paint (22.2-percent) or mid-range (31.3-percent). Unlike Chandler, he is a bad defender no matter where is on the floor. He consistently gets beat by his matchup and he is a liability on that end of the floor. If there is one silver lining to his game, he can hit some three-pointers in the right situations. He is a solid long-range shooter on pull-ups (38.5-percent) and he has a hot (warm?) spot — the right corner (40.0-percent).

If I were Tim Connelly, this decision would be easy for me. Randy Foye is 31 years-old and past his prime (if he ever had one). He would be on his way out of town. The team will have a lottery pick in this year’s draft and his option money could go towards paying that prospect. There is no point in bringing him back, unless you want an option to shoot threes off of the bench, but players like that are a dime a dozen. Denver would be better off finding a cheaper alternative.

As far as Chandler goes, I would let him hit the open market. While he is a solid starter, I’m trying to maximize that cap space this offseason. I would go for the home run and hope that I could land Draymond Green, Jimmy Butler or Kawhi Leonard. While Butler and Leonard are long-shots, the Golden State Warriors have a lot of money tied up between all of their players. It’s a very real possibility that Green bolts for greener pastures. If all else fails and you strike out, you have Danilo Gallinari on your roster and some flexibility for the next go-around.

This offseason will be a huge one for the Denver Nuggets. If their management proves to be shrewd enough, they can build a contending team a lot quicker than you realize. The only problem will be the fact that every other general manager is probably thinking along the same lines. This may be a make-or-break summer for Connelly and his cronies.