Pivotal offseason awaits Nuggets as Northwest Division gets stronger
By Evan Fiala
The regular season is officially over and while 16 teams will now try to contend with Golden State for a championship, the Nuggets are focused on taking the next step in the rebuilding process. With an incredibly young yet talented roster, tons of projected cap room and three first round draft picks (thank you, Houston!), Tim Connelly has put the Nuggets in one of the best positions heading into the summer in a long, long time.
It’s easy to be very optimistic about the current core of Emmanuel Mudiay, Gary Harris, Nikola Jokic and Jusuf Nurkic and how much growth they will experience this offseason. Many fans, myself included, have visions of the Nuggets making the playoffs in 2017 with a team very similar to this one. If Connelly can continue to be savvy with his drafting and make a few other moves, a 7 or 8 seed in the playoffs next season is not out of the question.
However, take a step back to see the bigger picture of next year’s Western Conference and the road for the Nuggets postseason is a lot bumpier than it seems. Of this year’s playoff teams it’s probably safe to say that Golden State, San Antonio and the Los Angeles Clippers are shoe-ins for next year as well. Even if Kevin Durant leaves Oklahoma City, Russell Westbrook is good enough to get the Thunder back in, and it’s also likely a healthy Memphis team returns. That leaves three spots for Dallas, Portland, Houston and Utah to fight for again, while Minnesota will also be a dark horse for the eighth seed. Throw Denver in the mix and that’s six teams vying for three coveted spots.
For the Nuggets to make the playoffs, a lot of improvements will need to be made by the individual players, by the coaches and by management. Of course, the playoffs on their own are not the final goal. Danilo Gallinari said it best when he said “We should be thinking about championships. I’m tired of thinking about playoffs, playoffs, six, seven, eighth spot. I want to think about championships.” But for a team that hasn’t seen the postseason in three years, the playoffs are still a key benchmark and the next step up the ladder.
One of the areas where the Nuggets need to improve is within their own division. In 2015-2016, Denver went 4-12 against its Northwest opponents, a record that is unacceptable for any team even thinking about trying to contend. The Nuggets don’t need to win the division, a feat they haven’t accomplished since 2010, but what they do need is to win every tiebreaker scenario possible. One needs to look only at Utah this season, who even if they beat Kobe in his last game, would’ve lost the tiebreaker to Houston anyways for the eighth seed because of an inferior conference record. If the playoff race is close next year like it was this year, every division and conference game will count.
What’s scary for Denver is that the Northwest division has the potential to be one of the deepest in the league. All other teams are poised to get stronger this summer which will undoubtedly make Denver’s ability to get in the playoffs and win tie breakers much more difficult.
Oklahoma City faces the real possibility of losing Kevin Durant in free agency, which could very well shake up the pecking order within the division. Russell Westbrook has shown that he can dominate without him, but in the 65 Durant-less games Oklahoma City has played in the past two seasons the Thunder are only 30-35. Durant or not, OKC is still laden with talent and has the Nuggets’ number. Denver has only beaten the Thunder twice in the past three years, and have lost by an average of 14.3 points in their losses. For now, Oklahoma City will remain the team beat in the Northwest.
Portland has surprised everybody this year by earning the fifth seed despite losing four starters last offseason. Damian Lillard with the help of C.J. McCollum and a band of role players have had a magical season, including going 3-1 against Denver. Lillard, McCollum and Meyers Leonard are all 25 or younger and present a solid foundation for Portland to build on this offseason. Lillard was somehow snubbed of an All-Star invite for the second consecutive season despite being worthy of it, especially after what he’s accomplished essentially by himself. The Nuggets may lack the star power that Lillard provides, but they do have a much deeper bench unit.
Utah is very similar to Denver in that they are young and have shown tons of promise, though the Jazz are clearly a few steps ahead at this point. Utah swept the season series in 2016 for the first time since 2002-2003 and have seemed to figure out the formula for beating the Nuggets. Most notable is the Jazz defense anchored by Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors, which had the best defensive rating in the NBA over the last month of the season.
Despite missing Dante Exum in 2015-2016, the Jazz gelled pretty well. With Exum back and Gobert, Trey Lyles, and Rodney Hood a year older the Jazz youth are positioned well to support Gordon Hayward and Favors. They were pretty much a blown-home-loss-against-the-Clippers’-bench away from making the playoffs and will be playing 2016-2017 with a huge chip on their shoulder. In my opinion, the Jazz are the biggest threat to any potential near-term success for the Nuggets.
The only divisional team that the Nuggets had success against this year was Minnesota, winning the series 3-1. That’s the good news. The bad news is that Minnesota is once again due a lottery pick, and the thought of possibly adding Ben Simmons or Brandon Ingram to a team that already has Karl Anthony-Towns and Andrew Wiggins is both unfair and scary.
Even without the lottery pick, Minnesota is the team that will make the biggest overall improvement next year. Towns has already shown why he was the number one draft pick in 2015 and the clear front-runner for Rookie of the Year, placing in the top ten in all relevant categories for a center in his first NBA season. Wiggins, who also won Rookie of the Year, had an up-and-down sophomore campaign but will only get better as well.
Depth continues to be a concern for Minnesota, an area that the Nuggets don’t necessarily lack in at the moment. Who the Timberwolves surround Towns, Wiggins and Zach LaVine with will make or break how quickly this team progresses. Regardless, Towns will be a one man wrecking crew if he needs to be and Denver will need to find a way to keep him at bay for years to come.
Needless to say, the way Tim Connelly handles this offseason will alter the Nuggets franchise for years to come. Denver can’t afford to play catch up in their division any longer and will likely need to surpass Utah or Portland to make the playoffs, all while holding off the surging Timberwolves. Each of the 16 division games will be a must win.
Whether it’s by letting the current core develop together, free agency, trade or in the draft, the Nuggets will look to improve, and within the division is a great place to start.