The Nuggets are in trouble, check that big trouble of having what was a historic season go up in flames tonight. Denver faces a 3-1 series deficit to the Golden State Warriors, after losing Game four 115-101 on Sunday night. The Nuggets have been outplayed and out-coached by the surging Warriors, having no answers for anything the Warriors do on offense or defense. If the Nuggets lose again this series, it will be the ninth time in their last ten playoff appearances, that they’ve been eliminated in the first round. With Denver having basically nothing to lose at this point, I think they should look to two bench players to possibly be the unsung heroes in reviving the Nuggets chances to win this series.

Stephen Curry has torched the Nuggets all series long, they’ve simply had no answer for him. Curry is averaging 27.3 points, 10.0 assists, 2.7 steals, shooting 50% from the field and 47% from the three point line in the series. He has constantly given the Nuggets fits in the pick and roll game, while also taking advantage of a slower Andre Miller multiple times this series. Now I expect Denver to probably start Iguodala on Curry for game five and the rest of the series but, they also should look to Julyan Stone to help on the defensive end. Stone is obviously quicker than Miller and I don’t believe Curry would have such a speed/quickness advantage on the second year guard, out of UTEP. Also at 6’6″ tall, Stone has the size to potentially give Curry problems, with his aggressive defense and long wing span, Stone could provide Denver the defensive presence they so desperately need this series. Stone’s size could also help Denver out on the glass, as guard Jarrett Jack has averaged 5.3 rebounds per game in the series so far. I think playing Stone for 10-20 minutes in game five, may be a smart play by Coach Karl.

Another area where Denver has struggled a lot in this series, has been the fact that they’re getting no production or physical play out of the front-court. Centers Kosta Koufos and JaVale McGee have been playing poorly, to say the least this series. The Warriors have out-rebounded the Nuggets in every game in the series, primarily due to the efforts of center Andrew Bogut and forward Carl Landry. Bogut and Landry have combined to average 23.1 points, 12.8 rebounds, 2.25 blocks and 2.0 steals this series against Denver’s big’s, outplaying and beating them up severely. Koufos and McGee have combined to only average 8.0 points, 6.6 rebounds, 1.0 blocks and 0.75 steals per game in the first round. The answer for Denver’s front-court woes could be, Russian center Timofey Mozgov who has seen limited minutes this season. However in games where he played 10+ minutes this season, Mozgov averaged 4.8 points, 4.8 rebounds and 0.75 blocks per game. Mozgov plays fairly physical post defense and is arguably more skilled than both Koufos and McGee. He also has solid touch around the rim and a little 10-12 foot jumper, that could help Denver disrupt Golden State’s zone defense. Mozgov could be the answer for Denver’s lack of physicality in the front-court and rebounding issues in the series. At this point these suggestions may be me just having foolish optimism but, the Nuggets have their backs against the wall and at this point have nothing to lose. Mozgov and Stone could possibly be the difference in Denver’s season ending tonight or continuing on to a game six in Oakland.

Apr 23, 2013; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Nuggets point guard Ty Lawson (3) guards Golden State Warriors point guard Jarrett Jack (2) in the second quarter during game two in the first round of the 2013 NBA playoffs at the Pepsi Center. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Last night was bad. Let’s get that out of the way.

The Nuggets gave up 131 points, at home, in a playoff game en route to their first loss at home since January. Golden State deserves credit — they were on fire from everywhere. They shot 64.6 percent from the floor and 56 percent from three, prompting head coach Mark Jackson to say that the Curry-Thompson backcourt is the greatest shooting backcourt in the history of the NBA. Jackson was over-exaggerating but last night they actually looked like the two best shooters in NBA history.

The Nuggets were lost defensively. Andre Iguodala looked fantastic in the first quarter but disappeared into the abyss the rest of the game. Kenneth Faried looked slow and, well, injured. Corey Brewer took more 3-point shots than Steph Curry did, which just seems inconceivable. Kosta Koufos got bullied by Andrew Bogut and had to be subbed out. Anthony Randolph tried and brought some energy in the fourth quarter but was exposed on the perimeter defensively. I hardly remember Evan Fournier playing other than some early turnovers. The only guy to really bring it was Ty Lawson, who finished with 19 points and 12 assists.

But here’s the good news for Nugget fans: it’s a seven game series. And the Warriors aren’t hitting 64.6 percent of their shots regardless of how open they are. With that said, though: this series could go downhill for the Nuggets if head coach George Karl doesn’t make some adjustments defensively and to his rotation.

“So what adjustments could be made?” — Ahh, I’m glad you asked.

The small ball lineup

About 30 minutes before tipoff, a report came out that Carl Landry would start in David Lee’s place. Landry made sense as he is a natural four and would allow for a smooth transition for the Warriors without their All-Star power forward. But at tip-off  coach Jackson sent out a small-ball set with Harrison Barnes at the power forward, Klay Thompson at the 3, Steph Curry at the 2 and Jarrett Jack running point. While this didn’t really hurt the Nuggets at first, because they started Wilson Chandler as their small-ball power forward, it affected the game in the long run once substitutions were made.

There’s two trains of thought here: 1) adapt to the Warriors style and beat them at it or 2) use your seven footers to punish the Warriors on the defensive end. For periods at a time last night, the Nuggets tried strategy #2 and failed miserably. When fatigue would set in and the Warriors would concede to a more natural lineup, Denver would be fine. But when Barnes played the 4, he would have an advantage stretching the floor on offense that was enough to allow him to stay in despite his rebounding woes on the other end. Barnes finished with 24 points on 14 shots and really became the x-factor for what the Warriors wanted to do on offense.

Coach Jackson made moves last night. His savvy rotations on offense and “score-outside-to-open-up-the-inside” strategy outclassed coach Karl in every sense. Coach Karl must figure out, which I’m sure he will, how to match up with the Warriors defensively.

I’m not sure Karl can afford to have two big guys on the floor for the rest of the series. Some combination of Lawson-Miller-Fournier-Brewer-Iggy-Chandler must fill the first four positions at all times — with Faried, McGee, Koufos and Randolph rotating at the five spot. That is, of course, until the Warriors are forced (by fatigue) to play a more conventional lineup away from their small ball starting lineup of Game 2. In that case, the Nuggets could match up accordingly with two bigs in the game at the same time.

Pick-and-roll defense

Wait, did Denver even play pick-and-roll defense last night? Well, they tried… sort of. Almost every time down the floor the Warriors would set a strong sick pick with shooters running off a series of screens on the baseline. If the ball handler on the ball screen didn’t have an opportunity to score, he would look for the shooter who was either flaring or curling off the opposite down screen. This type of action can be tough to guard as the Warriors ran the floor with four shooters and stretched the Nuggets defense, leading to easy buckets inside once the Nuggets over committed.

How do you go about fixing this? Well you can have your bigs on defense hedge the ball screen hard, which I don’t recall ever seeing in Game 2. Nate Timmons of DenverStiffs has an excellent video series for Game 2. In the second video at the :15 mark you can see Klay Thompson dribbling around a Bogut screen at the top of the key. Iguodala tries to fight over the screen but eventually gives up and goes under. Koufos sits back, allowing an open jumper which Thompson (and Curry) was knocking down all night.

If I’m coach Karl, I would want my on ball defender to jump over the screen and fight over the top. While that’s happening, the big man guarding the screener would need to come out hard and attack the ball handler. Where you get burnt in this defense is on the weak side when the big man rolls to the basket. That’s where your weak side defenders have to be conscious enough to clog the lane then have the speed to recover to their man in the corner. The Nuggets have that type of team speed but I’m not sure everyone could be disciplined enough to implement this strategy in the short span between Game 2 and Game 3.

Either way, Karl has to address these defensive issues because the Warriors were getting wide open three after wide open three in the half court set.

The Steph Curry problem

I don’t know that you can really fix this. Steph Curry is one of the most effortless scorers in the game and stopping him consists of the basketball Gods plucking their hands in and pulling shots off the rim. Because when he’s doing this, no defense in the world is going to stop him. Last night, there was no stopping Curry. If you let him breathe, he’s hitting a pull up jumper in your face. If you smother him, he uses his (underrated) handle and finds the open man, which he did 13 times last night.

So what do you do?

Well, for one, you hope he has one of those rare “off” nights like he had in Game 1. For two, well… there’s really not much else you can do. You can face guard him completely, every inch of the floor, but that only opens up space for the three other 3-point shooters on the perimeter. I think it’s best for Nugget fans to just pray. Pray for the basketball Gods to decide they’ve had enough of Curry nailing every shot he throws up.

Overall:

There’s no reason to panic or overreact if you’re a Nugget fan. George Karl is a great coach. He got out-coached by Mark Jackson last night, but that happens. Just like great players like Steph Curry can have off games — coaches can have off games too. And what do great coaches do in the playoffs? They make adjustments. Karl will make adjustments. The Warriors won’t shoot 64.6 percent from the floor again. The Nuggets are a better team than the Warriors. They’re resilient. And they will be fine.

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