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Timofey Mozgov Trade Rumors: Why the Nuggets Shouldn’t Trade Him

By S.E. Shepherd

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Nov 25, 2014; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Nuggets center Timofey Mozgov (25) during the game against the Chicago Bulls at Pepsi Center. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports

The Timofey Mozgov trade rumors are heating up again, but Nuggets fans should pump the brakes if they think moving Mozgov is the right call.

With the NBA’s trade season in full swing, the rumors surrounding potential trade destinations for Denver Nuggets center Timofey Mozgov are once again flying fast and furious. Even before the season began, there was noise out of Cleveland that the Cavs coveted the big Russian. And now, with the Cavs underperforming and facing the prospect of Anderson Varejao being out for the remainder of the season, the volume on the Mozgov-to-Cleveland talks has been cranked up to 11.

The Nuggets have Mozgov under contract through the 2015-16 season, with that final year being a team option, meaning they are likely to make a decision regarding his future sooner rather than later. If they don’t intend to pick up his option or if they lack confidence in their ability to re-sign the big man, it would make sense to move him now while interest in his services seemingly is at an all-time high, especially considering he’ll turn 29 later this year. But I think shipping Mozgov off to Cleveland, or anywhere else for that matter, would be a mistake.

Let’s take a look at three reasons why the Nuggets should ignore the suitors and keep Mozgov in Denver.

1. He’s a Known Commodity
Fans are notorious for always thinking the grass is greener on the other side of the fence, but the fact is we know exactly what to expect with Mozgov. He’s a big, physical 7-footer who can protect the paint, clean the glass and get out on the break. You can pretty  much pencil him in for 7-10 points and 8-10 rebounds a night. Sure, you can also pretty much bet on the fact that he’s going to rack up somewhere between 2 and 5 fouls per game, and odds are he’s likely to get himself into early foul trouble every other night, but at least he’s consistent. Mozgov is never going to be a star in this league, but he’s an above average center who can protect the paint and alter shots around the rim. Whether you love him or hate him, teams burn through a lot of big, slow-footed players trying to find a guy who can contribute what Mozgov brings to the Nuggets.

With the recent development of rookie Jusuf Nurkic, I’ve seen a lot of fans and basketbloggers opine that it means the Nuggets no longer need Mozgov. I simply do not agree. I am as high on Nurkic as anyone, but the kid has played just over 20 games. A lot could happen between now and whenever we find out exactly who Jusuf Nurkic will be in the NBA. He could regress, he could get injured or he could simply hit a low ceiling. The point is moving Mozgov because a rookie has put together a nice stretch of games is short-sighted at best. Let’s see how Nurkic plays with another 20 games under his belt before we decide Mozgov is no longer an asset for the Nuggets.

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2. He’s a Bargain
The Nuggets are paying Mozgov $4.65 million this season, and the team option year would cost the team $4.95 million. That is pennies compared to the salaries of other decent centers in this league. Consider the fact that guys like Nene, Anderson Varejao, Jordan Hill, Brandan Wright, and Chris Kaman all earn more per year than Mozgov. Would you rather have any of those guys over Mozgov? I wouldn’t.

I mean, Mozgov isn’t even the highest paid center on his own team! JaVale McGee (who is a player I like but even I’m starting to think the dude is nothing but a potential bust) is earning more than $11 million to basically wear a suit on the bench this season and post cool pics on Instagram, and J.J. Hickson (another guy I don’t dislike but who can’t give Brian Shaw enough reasons to give him more minutes than Mozgov) is being paid $5.381 million. Both of those guys out-earn Mozgov, but they don’t out-play him. So if the Nuggets are itching to make a move this season, I’d much prefer to see them send McGee or Hickson packing (assuming there’s a team out there interested in either one of ’em).

The Nuggets have Mozgov locked up this season and next at bargain-basement prices for a guy who basically averages close to a double-double every night. There are a lot of teams that would kill to be in a similar position.

3. What Would We Get in Return?
This is the biggest question Nuggets fans need to ask themselves before they start shoving Mozgov out of town. Anyone familiar with ESPN’s Trade Machine knows there are a million different ways to engineer a trade, especially if you involve three or more teams. But for the point of this conversation, let’s look at the current roster of the Cleveland Cavs since they are the team rumored to be most interested in Mozgov. Look over that roster and the guys that team might be reasonably expected to trade and tell me who you’d like to get in return for Mozgov. Tristan Thompson? Just what we need on our roster, another undersized power forward. Shawn Marion? Maybe if we could get the early 2000s-model, but in his current form: not interested. Mike Miller? Brendan Haywood? Nope and nope. Maybe the Cavs want to offer up draft picks instead. Oh wait, all they really have on the table are a couple of conditional first rounders in next year’s draft. Those could be tempting for the Nuggets, since they don’t have a first-round pick in 2015, but I find it hard to believe Cleveland would include a first-round pick in a deal for Mozgov. Beyond that, all Cleveland has is a bunch of 2015 second-round picks (the Nuggets already have three of those themselves). Again, I realize Cleveland could get creative, involve other teams, and build an offer that might make Denver curious, but I can’t foresee a scenario where the Nuggets end up with anything other than a 30+ year-old shooting guard who might contribute as a perimeter defender or a collection of cap-space throwaways that would signal to the Denver fan base that the team is ready to go into full-on rebuilding mode. Quite frankly, neither of those options sounds very appealing.

By all accounts, teams are burning up the phone lines trying to work out trades, and the Nuggets seem to be a team on the other end of a lot of those calls. I think there are several players on this Nuggets roster that could/should be on the table in terms of trade talks, but unless someone put together a deal that is impossible to turn down, I hope the Nuggets keep Timofey Mozgov in Denver for the foreseeable future.

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