The Nuggets Rebuild Is Already Over

Only five games remain in the 2015-2016 season for the Denver Nuggets, then once again Pepsi Center will sit empty during the playoffs. Despite the ups and downs, this year is far from being a failure. Denver will miss the postseason for the third consecutive year, but with a 32-45 record they have more wins in a season under Michael Malone than they ever got under Brian Shaw.

More importantly, the entire team culture has turned around 180 degrees. Instead of reports of a hostile locker room, these Nuggets support each other no matter what. Instead of callous, uninspired basketball, this team plays hard until the end and fights in every game. These guys have had a lot of growing pains this year, but to see them smile and high five each other in meaningless games is a beautiful sight. For the first time in years, things are looking up.

That’s what makes this off season so intriguing – there is so much that can happen and so much speculation to go around. Denver can potentially find itself with three first-round draft picks with the help of Portland and Houston. General Manager Tim Connelly has been a savvy drafter in his tenure thus far, so three first rounders can do nothing but good for the Nuggets. Additionally, the salary cap is expected to increase to $89 million next season. The Nuggets currently have about $61 million on the books for next year. That’s a lot of money to play around with.

Already there have been many theories about what the Nuggets should do this summer. Will they use the extra cap space and try to convince a big-time free agent to play in Denver? Will they trade up in the draft and go after Ben Simmons or Brandon Ingram? Or will they try and make a blockbuster trade for say, DeMarcus Cousins or Jimmy Butler?

Undoubtedly, the Nuggets find themselves in a great position with a lot of flexibility. But while having all of these options is nice, this is where I believe it might be best for Denver to back off a little bit on shaking things up. The Nuggets have already done all the dirty work. The tank, whether intentional or not, has been successful and Connelly has pieced together a roster that I think will make the playoffs in years to come.

I know, you’re thinking that there’s no way that a team 13 games under .500 right now will be able to compete, especially given how deep the Western Conference is. I think otherwise.

Going into next season, this would be the Nugget’s depth chart not including draft picks and assuming DJ Augustin resigns (which he needs to be) and that Darrell Arthur exercises his player option:

If healthy, this roster will make noise next year and in years to come. No, they won’t win a championship in 2016-17, but if kept together, why can’t they be contenders in 2018 and beyond?

The current roster has good combination of veteran experience and a powerful youth movement. Gallinari and Faried, probably the most expendable of the Nuggets, are also the glue to the team right now. Before his season ending ankle injury, Gallo averaged 19.5 points and 5.3 rebounds per game. The entire world saw how good Faried can be in the 2014 FIBA World Cup, and while he doesn’t always play to his potential he still has a positive impact on the game. The Nuggets are 71-45 in games where Faried has a double-double.

The long awaited return of Wilson Chandler will also give more depth to the three spot which has been the weakest position this season with his absence. Chandler can also play the two in bigger lineups and is a versatile defender.

Then come the young guys, where we can proudly call the rebuild a success. With his innate ability to draft quality talent, Connelly has found four absolute gems: Emmanuel Mudiay, Gary Harris, Jusuf Nurkic and Nikola Jokic. Do you want to see the future of Denver basketball? Look no further at the two rookies and two sophomores listed above.

Mudiay had a terrible start to the season, but for a kid who until October had never played a meaningful game in the USA since high school, he has performed admirably. His numbers in March testify of his ability to adapt to the NBA’s steep learning curve: 15.8 points, 4.8 assists and 3.9 rebounds while shooting 38.9 percent from three. Harris has had a terrific sophomore campaign and is making his mark on defense. If his shot continues to improve he will be a force to be reckoned with.

Last season, Nurkic established himself as a bruiser in the paint. This year, Jokic has been turning heads with his crafty passing ability and an outside shot in addition to his size in the key. He is a darkhorse candidate for Rookie of the Year. The Jokic-Nurkic combo provides an interesting dilemma for who will start at center, but clearly the hope is that somehow they can learn to play with each other at the 4 and 5 and give Denver a sizable advantage in the frontcourt.

The other reason I feel so strongly about this roster is that the bench has been phenomenal. As a whole, Denver’s reserves rank 2nd in the league in bench scoring with 40.8 points per game, 3rd in rebounds at 18.4 and 5th in assists with 9.4 per game. In many outings the bench has carried the entire team, including the game last week against Los Angeles where they combined for 71 total points.

Individually, much as been said all year about Will Barton, but since the trade deadline the bench has ridden the coattails of DJ Augustin. Augustin came to Denver on 2/18, and since then he’s scored double-figures in 17 of 23 games after only doing so four times this season with Oklahoma City. He’s also 13th in the NBA in fourth quarter scoring since joining Denver by shooting 50 percent from the field and 43.2 percent from three. It would be a huge mistake for Denver not to resign him.

Of course, the one area where my argument lacks validity is that currently the Denver Nuggets do not employ a superstar, and in a way this has really been their Achilles heel. Many will say that Gallinari has to be the go-to guy. But in a lot of games this season, including ones where Gallo was playing, there hasn’t been the one guy who you know can take the last shot or creating winning opportunities. The Nuggets have failed to close out too many games because of this.

My only real answer is that who’s to say this kind of player isn’t already on the roster? It certainly could be Mudiay IF he can totally mend his shot in the off season. Mudiay is already good at driving and taking contact in the lane and he definitely doesn’t shy away  This season has shown what Mudiay’s floor is, but his potential is still unlimited.

Jokic and Nurkic also have the potential to be stars. Jokic is already being compared to Cousins and once he spends a summer with Steve Hess and actually gets some meat on his body, he will have a more dominant presence in the paint. Big Honey is in the top ten in most statistical categories among rookies, including second in PER only to Towns. He’s done so averaging only 21 minutes per game. If his development continues to blossom, he very well could be just as good or better than Cousins. Like Mudiay, the sky is the limit.

Nurkic  on the other hand has struggled this year after missing the first half of the season due to injury. His playing time has been limited and he had a stint in Michael Malone’s doghouse, but when he has played he always impacts the game. His presence as a rim protector alone is enough to bolster the defense but even better is that he’s hitting his stride offensively. In his last seven games he’s put up 12.9 points, 5.3 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 2.0 blocks and 1.0 steals per game. And he’s shooting 55.6% from the field, in line of what an elite center should be shooting at. Nurkic has missed the last three games with illness and he has been sorely missed. Any player that can have that big of an impact, especially off the bench, is worth keeping around.

Make no mistake, I’m not saying that Connelly should absolutely stick to his guns and ride this exact roster out into the future. There are still a few spots to be filled and still the draft picks to consider. With the cap space, I know that Connelly will have some stuff up his sleeve. I’m just advocating for keeping the core of this team intact and only making big moves if they will absolutely improve the team both short and long-term.

For example, do you make a trade with Sacramento for Cousins or try and pick up Al Horford in free agency when you have the two of the best, if not the best, young centers in the game? To get Cousins either Nurkic or Jokic would have to be included in the deal. Is it worth giving one of them up for someone who has a lot of known issues, no matter how good he is?

Is it worth packaging Gallinari with a few others to move up in the draft at the mere chance of landing Simmons or Ingram? Is it worth selling the farm for Blake Griffin? In most of these cases, I think not.

The entire core of this roster was hand picked by Connelly himself. Giving them the opportunity to play and grow together is in everyone’s best interest. If the right deal comes along, I trust that Connelly will take it. He knows what he’s doing. But if that doesn’t happen, that’s okay too. This team is going to be good no matter what.