Joining LeBron James and Kemba Walker in our “Why Not The Nuggets” series today is; Kawhi Leonard.
The Spurs Small Forward is, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski, currently distant and disconnected from the Spurs organization and coaching staff. According to reports, the rift centers on the handling of Kawhi’s rehabilitation from a right quadriceps injury.
Denver Nuggets
The news has sparked a lot of talk about the possibility of Kawhi leaving the Spurs and what it may take to pry him away from the elite franchise and elite coach in Gregg Popovich.
Kawhi is on the 3rd year of a 5-year contract he signed before the start of the 2015-16 season. It pays him in excess of 18 million per year. He has a player option in 2019 and can become an unrestricted free agent in 2020. Pretty favorable numbers for perspective suitors and taking him out of the “rental” player status that can undervalue trade returns.
Conventional wisdom informs us that the Nuggets would have to part with at least one of the “big 3” in order to acquire top-5 talent like Leonard. One proposal had both Jokic and Murray included in a trade package that netted the Nuggets only Leonard (instead of, say, Leonard and Gasol). It’s difficult to envision the Nuggets parting with either player, much less both but let’s explore the possibilities, including either or both of those core players and also some creative ways we may be able to keep our core and still add Leonard.
First, let’s see what we’d be getting in Kawhi: He’s an elite defender, who has won Defensive Player of the Year twice, in 2015 and 2016. Last season, he averaged 25.5 ppg, 5.8 reb and 3.5 ast. He shoots 88% from the line, 48.5% from the floor and 38% from 3. He currently has a 26.5 PER rating. He is, legitimately, a top-5 player in the NBA.
It is debatable whether the Nuggets have had a top-5 player, in their prime, on their roster at any point in their 50-year history. Carmelo Anthony is as close as it’s gotten but there would be a healthy debate as to whether he’s ever been top-5. From that standpoint, it would seem imperative that if that talent is available, the Nuggets should do what is needed to elevate the Franchise.
Trade scenarios are like lotto fantasies, you can propose anything you can think of. We could say, let’s offer Michael Malone and Rocky and see what they say…….The thing is with contemplating a trade like this is that it is extremely unlikely. It’s not confirmed that Kawhi Leonard is even available, via trade. It’s not certain that Kawhi Leonard has any interest in playing for the Nuggets. It’s not certain that we could acquire Kawhi Leonard without gutting our current team. With regards to that uncertainty, my proposals are not, necessarily, dollar-for-dollar NBA approved scenarios. They are more along the lines of what we could (or should) be willing to part with to secure this type of talent.
In my mind, Gary Harris and Jamal Murray are off-limits. It is far too difficult to find a back court combination with as much potential as these two. I would put them up against Lillard/McCollum and CP3/Harden any day. Only Curry and Thompson, in my mind present a more lethal back court than the Nuggets’ pair.
It would benefit to look at some historical information regarding the Spurs; Popovich has been a genius at grooming and utilizing front court players. From The Admiral to Timmy D to the resurgence of LaMarcus Aldridge, the Spurs have never lacked for a devastating presence at the 4 or 5. Their style allows talented bigs to run a low-risk, inside/outside post game that utilizes Bigs with touch masterfully. Nikola Jokic is tailor-made for the Spurs system and I believe Pop could push his game into the stratosphere.
See, what I’m getting at, is that for the Nuggets to take that next step, a step that under current conditions was going to take a couple more years, they must be bold. I’m proposing something like:
http://www.espn.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=ycbsor98
The Nuggets get:
Kawhi Leonard, SF
Joffrey Lauvergne, C
The Spurs get:
Nikola Jokic, C
Will Barton, G/F
Emmanuel Mudiay, PG
Wilson Chandler, SF
It would hurt, to be certain to see Nikola leave the Mile High City, he is, perhaps the only Unicorn the Nuggets can claim in their long draft history but the return is an almost instantaneous elevation to the top of the Western Conference. The trade grades out, although a realistic scenario would almost certainly involve at least 3 teams or several draft picks to sweeten the deal for the Spurs.
The Nuggets would have to recall Monte Morris for the backup PG duties, Plumlee would become the permanent starter at 5. So, a starting lineup of Plumlee, Millsap, Leonard, Harris and Murray would be the ideal outcome of this deal. A second squad consisting of Lauvergne, Lyles, Juancho, Beasley and Morris would be the biggest challenge facing the Nuggets. While the potential for a solid bench is there, it would rely on very young, very inexperienced players to keep the momentum of the starters. Not ideal but still a measurable step up.
If we were to just pencil in some of the matchups with the top teams in the West, the Nuggets are in pretty favorable position. Warriors would be Pachulia v Plumlee (wash), Draymond v Millsap (wash), KD v Leonard (holy cow! wash), Klay v Harris (wash) and Steph v Jamal (I’m a homer but advantage Steph. Jamal has the ability but it’s Steph Curry). Still advantage Warriors but not by much and if Jamal can hang 38, keep up with Steph, anything can happen. The Rockets and Thunder may have greater talent at the very top but 1-5 and certainly 1-14 is advantage to the Nuggets.
So, come on, Karnisovas, come on, Connelly, the city of Denver has grown at an astounding rate over the last few years, I believe it’s time for our NBA franchise to similarly graduate into the world of superstar talent. Opportunities that the Nuggets can benefit from don’t come along that often, were they able to seize upon this, as they nearly did with Dwyane and Kyrie, it would signal that they are not content with being a team that’s just fun to watch but a team that sees deep playoff runs as a possibility.
A team that’s scary.