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Denver Nuggets: Three very bold predictions

By Grayson Moore

DENVER, CO - APRIL 9: Jamal Murray (27) of the Denver Nuggets smiles as he walks off the court after the second half of the Nuggets' 88-82 win over the Portland Trail Blazers on Monday, April 9, 2018. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post via Getty Images)
DENVER, CO - APRIL 9: Jamal Murray (27) of the Denver Nuggets smiles as he walks off the court after the second half of the Nuggets' 88-82 win over the Portland Trail Blazers on Monday, April 9, 2018. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post via Getty Images) /
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DENVER, CO – APRIL 9: Gary Harris (14) of the Denver Nuggets makes a game-clinching steal against CJ McCollum (3) of the Portland Trail Blazers during the second half of the Nuggets’ 88-82 win on Monday, April 9, 2018. (Photo by Aaron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post via Getty Images)
DENVER, CO – APRIL 9: Gary Harris (14) of the Denver Nuggets makes a game-clinching steal against CJ McCollum (3) of the Portland Trail Blazers during the second half of the Nuggets’ 88-82 win on Monday, April 9, 2018. (Photo by Aaron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post via Getty Images) /

Prediction #1: Gary Harris will be a member of the All-Defensive First Team

This really isn’t as bold of a prediction as it appears to be on first glance.

Denver Nuggets
Denver Nuggets /

Denver Nuggets

Harris had a defensive rating of 112 last year with a -1.5 defensive box plus/minus. He has never had a positive DBPM score in his career and he obtained just 1.5 defensive win shares last year. So why would he make an All-Defensive team at all?

There are 2 answers to that question: 1. There are few defensive stats that actually portray a player’s defensive ability and 2. In the few that are an accurate display of a player’s defensive ability, Harris is, at worst, above-average.

For example, among shooting guards who played at least 50 games last season, Harris ranked 18th in ESPN’s defensive real plus/minus, a much more accurate plus/minus measure than DBPM. He also averaged 1.8 steals per game, which ranked 6th overall in the league and ahead of All-Defensive teamers like Robert Covington, Jrue Holiday, and Dejounte Murray.

Harris also allowed his opponents to shoot just 44.8% from the floor and 34.4% from 3, both well below league averages(NBA.com). The Nuggets were also a worse defensive team when he was off the floor.

When Harris was riding the pine, the Nuggets allowed an offensive rating of 113.2, which would have ranked worst in the league. When he was on the court, the Nuggets allowed an offensive rating of 110.1, and while that may not seem that impressive, it would have ranked as the 13th worst in the league, an improvement from the 6th worst finish that the Nuggets actually put up. Opposing team’s turnover percentage went up when Harris played and their assist percentage went down. The Nuggets’ steal percentage also went down and many offensive stats took a plummet as well.

Harris has improved every year he has been in the league, especially defensively. After earning 3 All-Defensive Second Team votes last year, look for Harris to improve yet again. Maybe All-Defensive First Team is a lofty expectation, but he certainly has the defensive capability to. All he needs is the national recognition, which leads me to my next prediction.

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