Each game presents a puzzler…which Denver Nuggets’, Trey Lyles will show up?
Trey Lyles proved himself offensively capable…in about 50 percent of appearances. There were nights Lyles dominated as the game’s best player. In other contests, Trey barely produced a whisper.
Denver Nuggets
The talent is undeniable. Lyles hit double figures 38 times in 73 games last year (ESPN). This is too frequent to be luck or coincidence. Trey Lyles can can score the basketball.
But why the inconsistency? Why does Lyles fluctuate between 19 points and two, taking no middle ground throughout long stretches?
As a coach, this causes major headaches.
It turns out minutes play a huge factor for Lyles. Sure, this is the common for most players. But Trey is an especially extreme case.
Let’s take a look:
Lyles in under 15 minutes:
When Trey played under 15 minutes in 2017-18? He averaged just 2.8 points in 18 appearances (ESPN). Watching these games, fans observe Trey’s tentative body language. In some regards, he looks afraid to shoot.
This low production means one of two things. Either Lyles is a slow-starter. Or, he doesn’t feel included offensively during short stretches.
Lyles in 15-plus minutes:
When Lyles played 15+ minutes (55 games), his scoring skyrockets to 12.4 ppg. Trey scored in double-figures 67 percent of these games (ESPN).
Fans see a more comfortable Trey in 15+ minutes. Shots are available, and he clearly feels valued. This is when Trey potentially turns the tide in close games.
Lyles in 25-plus minutes:
Lyles tears it up when playing 25+ minutes. Trey averaged 17 points and 7.4 rebounds in 23 games. He also converted 55 percent of field goal attempts, and splashed 44 percent from three-point range (NBA).
Now we’re talking legitimate star numbers. If Trey averages starter minutes, he could flirt with 20 and 9. General managers needing power forwards should inquire, honestly.
Conclusion:
Nuggets fans are confused. Lyles often demonstrates huge potential. Yet the roller-coaster ride has proven jerky and unpredictable.
Both Lyles and Coach Malone can improve.
Lyles cannot establish himself as inconsistent. Unfortunately he has done just that. There will be more low-minute games. This must no longer serve as an excuse.
Trey must be aggressive in the early-going. Make it his goal to score in the first two possessions. Or drop multiple baskets in the first four minutes. Find a way to contribute early and often.
Meanwhile, Malone has to take risks. Going with Mason Plumlee is safe…that’s understandable. And there’s a time for that. But Plumlee’s defensive package comes tandem with Plumlee’s offensive skill set. The latter isn’t always pretty.
What if Lyles took minutes from Mason in certain defensive situations? Plumlee is okay…but Trey is a better overall sub.
Like Plumlee, Lyles is a stingy defender. On pick-and-roll situations, opponents shot just 30.5 percent when Trey played the defending big man role. He also limited opponents to 33.9 percent in spot-up shooting situations. (NBA).
Offensively Lyles is well ahead of Mason. He averaged 25.0 points per 48 minutes (ESPN) versus Plumlee’s 17.5 points per 48 min (ESPN).
Someday, Trey Lyles will be a starter in this league. He is good enough on both sides of the ball. If Trey plays 30-33 minutes, watch him average 18-20 points.
If he stays, Denver’s future may sport the following starters: Murray, Harris, Porter, Lyles and Jokic.