Denver Nuggets’ Jarred Vanderbilt could be difference maker next season
The Nuggets season ended in disappointment, but it is very easy to get excited about the heights a roster so young could reach, but the young player being slept on is former Kentucky Wildcat forward Jarred Vanderbilt.
Vanderbilt didn’t get much playing time amid an injury-ridden 2018-19 season (17 games). In the few games he did play, he hustled enough to grab 12 rebounds per 36 minutes, second to only [Editor’s note: First Team All-NBA] center Nikola Jokic among Nuggets players.
That is to be taken with a grain of salt because he played such a small number of minutes. But even with limited data and game tape, it isn’t hard to see how well Vanderbilt’s game should mesh with what Mike Malone has the Nuggets doing on both side of the ball.
On offense Vanderbilt has always shown that he is an effective cutter, capable of using his 7-foot-1 wingspan and 8-foot-10 standing reach to catch difficult passes and finish around the rim with ease. But if Vanderbilt is allowed to step into the void that could be left by Trey Lyles—or at least step into a bigger role—and play on the Denver second unit with Mason Plumlee and in occasional stints with Jokic at the beginning of fourth quarters, we will see a lot more wide open baskets like the one below for Vanderbilt. He is quicker than most bigs he will be matched up against on second units, and even some starters depending on the matchup.
For a player like Vanderbilt, who at 20 years old is a bundle of energy but still has lots of fine tuning to do to his game, playing with Plumlee (19.5 percent assist rate) and Jokic (37 percent assist rate) will do wonders for his game. And I don’t say this just because I am thinking about all the alley-oops Vanderbilt will catch. I am also envisioning the play style of the pass-happy Nuggets rubbing off on him even more once he is fully immersed.
Denver was seventh among teams in passes made in the regular season, and second in passes among playoff teams. Scouting reports from when Vanderbilt was coming out of high school and college both describe his ability to make high-level passes, and a willingness to attempt those types of passes when the opportunity presents itself. That ability is still there and can be expanded upon next season.
Even if the playmaking potential isn’t there, Vandebilt figures to become a Mike Malone favorite for his rebounding prowess that I briefly mentioned earlier. The Nuggets led the league in offensive rebounding percentage (30.8) and even if one of both of Millsap (team-option) or backup PF Trey Lyles were to be let go [Editor’s note: hopefully not], Vanderbilt figures to be a worthy fill-in.
Vanderbilt played about 65 minutes over four NBA G League contests. Though we yet again have the small sample size to deal with, his rebounding numbers held up. Over four games with the Delaware Blue Coats, Vanderbilt posted a 22.3 percent rebound rate that would’ve ranked third in the entire G League if he qualified, playing time-wise. He posted similarly absurd rebound rates in college playing 238 minutes over 14 games.
The point being, we know Vanderbilt should be able to rebound with the best of them at the NBA level. But the untapped potential lies on the defensive end, where the wingspan and standing reach really come into play.
A player can obviously get better at defense, but having great instincts on the side of the ball makes the path to becoming a great defender much easier. Vanderbilt averaged 3.3 steals per 36 minutes in the G League, and at Kentucky flashed the ability to breakdown plays in real-time and wreak havoc in passing lanes.
In Malone’s revamped Denver system, Vanderbilt would not doubt be able to effectively hedge on pick-and-rolls, and frustrate even some of the league’s best guards with his physical tools.
In the Game 7 loss to Portland that ended the season, the Nuggets had trouble keeping Enes Kanter and Mo Harkless off of the offensive glass. Plumlee was a -7 on the floor in that tough loss, and Malone didn’t have any other big men he trusted off the bench, choosing to go with a trio of guards due to the nature of the matchup. But—with a year of soaking up the NBA game from up close behind him—Vanderbilt could be a great option for Malone in a tough game like this in the future. One peek at the 2018-19, 2-man lineup data for the Nuggets, and it easy to see how plug-and-play of a prospect Vanderbilt may be.
In the 2018-19 season, these were the net ratings of a few specific Jarred Vanderbilt pairings:
Vanderbilt-Juan Hernangomez: +10.6 in 65 minutes
Vanderbilt-Malik Beasley: +4.6 in 37 minutes
Vanderbilt-Torrey Craig: +9.4 in 59 minutes
light. Related Story. Paul Millsap should’ve made the NBA All-Defensive second team
Playoff value is likely far off in Vanderbilt’s future. For now, becoming a consistent part of next year’s rotation should be Vanderbilt’s main goal, and how Nuggets President of Basketball Operations Tim Connelly attacks this offseason will let us know how likely it is that he becomes an impact player next season.
Vanderbilt has all the makings of a surprisingly effective bench player, who also happens to be on an extremely affordable contract. A team in Denver’s financial situation needs extract as much value as they can from a talent waiting in the wings like Vanderbilt.