To win Coach of the Year, Mike Malone must help Denver Nuggets meet expectations

Denver Nuggets head coach Mike Malone should be the favorite for Coach of the Year in the 2019-20 season. To win COY Malone doesn’t need to exceed expectations, he must simply meet them.

Last season the Denver Nuggets made their first playoff appearance since 2013. They finished with 54 wins, marking their second-straight season with at least 45 wins. In 2018 they only missed the playoffs because of a (regular season) game 82 loss to the (then Jimmy Butler-led) Minnesota Timberwolves, a tough way to end a season in which they finished 10 games above .500. It is safe to say that the Denver Nuggets are no longer a “sneaky” team and opponents will bring their ‘A’ games when they line up against Nikola Jokic and co. That is why I believe Mike Malone should be the favorite for Coach of the Year. To win COY Malone doesn’t need to exceed expectations, he must simply meet them.

Out of the Nuggets’ first 32 games, nearly 60% of them are at home. The Nuggets enjoyed great success at the Pepsi Center in the 2018-19 season, finishing as the best home team in the league at 34-7. The Nuggets will be able to get off to a good start and that should allow them to weather the storm when the tough road trips come calling.

The biggest key for Malone’s case for the award is to keep the Nuggets beating the teams they should while fending off the heavyweights enough to keep Denver in the top 3 in the Western Conference.

Coach of the Year usually goes to the head coach who is a first-time coach and acquires success at a rapid rate, the coach who leads an all-time regular-season effort or the leader of a successful group that finally gets over the hump, snagging a No. 1 seed or a high win total. Malone has a clear path to becoming the latter.

The Denver Nuggets were the No. 2 seed last year. They racked up 54 wins behind a strong defense and great depth, and I believe those two things will be even better this season.

Malone’s handling of the rotation is what will make or break his case for COY. In 2018-19, Will Barton was the starting small forward on the Nuggets, with Torrey Craig, Juan Hernangomez and even Malik Beasley getting some burn at the 3. How he approaches that spot will obviously have huge ramifications on the rest of the roster, including whether or not polarizing rookie Michael Porter Jr. will get playing time to start the year or at all for that matter.

Malone will be juggling all of these rotations decisions against the backdrop of 2020 free agency, with multiple tough decisions coming on young talents that the Nuggets have helped develop. Beasley (11.3 PPG, 40.2% from 3-point range), Juancho Hernangomez and defensive specialist Torrey Craig will all be restricted free agents in 2020, while veteran bigs Mason Plumlee and Paul Millsap will be unrestricted free agents.

Malone won’t be worrying about the 2020 offseason during the year but specifically, how he manages the playing time of the aging Millsap and Beasley, who would start for likely any other team, could determine if they are even interested in returning. But to this point, Malone and the Nuggets have done everything they can to convince players Denver is the best place for them to continue their development and Jerami Grant—who has a player option on his contract in 2020—will be a good litmus test for if Denver’s team culture is appealing to a player who is new to the group.

Even amid a brutally tough Western Conference, the Denver Nuggets are a safe bet to win 50 games in the 2019-20 season. Look for the squad to get off to a quick start and improve in defensive rating for (potentially) the third-straight season. Malone’s defense (in 2018-19) emphasized a bit more pressure at the point of attack, with the big man guarding the screen coming up hard to hedge, knocking the ball handler off his determined path. Nikola Jokic excelled in this system last season, having the best defensive season of his career by far.

Malone’s crowning achievement in Denver so far has been taking a franchise that has seemingly always been tied to high-scoring, fast-paced offense and changing their identity over four seasons. The Nuggets will be a top-10 defense again in 2019-20 and they will have as good of a shot as any team of making the Western Conference Finals after coming one home victory short of that feat last season. Malone was a finalist and deserved Coach of the Year in 2019 but Mike Budenholzer (fairly) won the award for his leadership over the league-leading 60-win Milwaukee Bucks.

Malone will be a finalist for the 2019-20 COY but he won’t need 60-wins to get it, he won’t even need the Nuggets to lead the league in wins to capture the elusive award. All Malone needs to take home the COY hardware this upcoming season is meet expectations and that includes Jokic having (another) MVP-caliber season, another sterling home record at the Pepsi Center and a top-3 finish in the Western Conference. It won’t be easy but the path is clear.