Denver Nuggets free agency blueprint

The Denver Nuggets are among the most feared teams in the western conference, but are still just a hair behind the two juggernauts in Los Angeles.

Already with five salaries over ten million dollars on the books, Denver’s flexibility is a bit limited. But there are several ways in which they can create the necessary avenues to put them over the top. As unstoppable as Nikola Jokic is, the Nuggets are still in need of a bit more outside shooting around their star big man.

Jamal Murray’s development as an on-ball defender and good enough three point shooting make him the best all-around guard on the team, but the deep rotation of Will Barton, Torrey Craig, and Monte Morris is still a crowded backcourt that Michael Malone is still trying to sort through, as evidenced by the team’s surprising decision to deal away Malik Beasley.

Going forward, it is virtually impossible for the Nuggets to go into the offseason with any cap space, unless they make several big trades without taking on much salary. Paul Millsap opted in to the final year of his 3 year, $90 million deal, and will be an unrestricted free agent at season’s end.

Currently, the Nuggets will have nine players under contract for the 2020-2021 season, and only five signed beyond that. The Nuggets would be wise to let go of some of their big men in the pursuit of more outside shooting and slashing.

Paul Millsap and Mason Plumlee’s cap holds as unrestricted free agents total over $50 million. If both are renounced, Denver will have its full non-taxpayer mid-level exception, and the bi-annual exception available to them.

Torrey Craig, Noah Vonleh, Jordan McRae, and Gerald Green are the other four free agents on the team. Vonleh’s career is all but over, and Jordan McRae is only on the books theoretically, as he last played for the Pistons.

Denver could decide to create cap space by renouncing both Craig and Green and renouncing both of their cap exceptions, but this would create less than $4 million. The Nuggets should instead work out a long-term deal with Craig, the team’s best perimeter defender. At 29, Craig was a bit of a late bloomer, but is too important a piece to let go of as his defense and considerable outside range are crucial to a team whose offense revolves around a center.

Robert Covington’s contract he originally agreed to with the 76ers would be comparable for Craig. Denver can probably max out a little under Covington’s $11 million per year rate, and offer him a four year deal worth $36 million, with $8 million in year one. Having gotten off the deals for Plumlee and Millsap, Denver is well below the luxury tax and has enough room to use both of their exceptions without approaching it.

The Nuggets should jump all over Evan Fournier at 12:01 ET on July 1st, when free agency kicks off. Fournier has quietly carved out a nice career for himself as both a capable scorer and sneaky good defender. He is coming off a season in which he averaged 19 points per game and shot 41% from beyond the arc. Fournier is exactly what the Nuggets need on both ends of the floor.

His lethal shooting can spread the floor and allow Murray and Jokic to feast off pick-and-roll opportunities. Malone can also then trot out a lineup of Murray, Gary Harris, Fournier, Craig, and Jokic, which gives him a great blend of perimeter defense, passing, and shooting.

With Jokic’s surreal passing ability, Fournier can use his notable skills in moving without the ball to create some inverted offense opportunities and stress defenses into defending out beyond the three point line. A contract for Fournier wouldn’t be cheap, but his impression of someone who is on an albatross of a contract is going to keep a cap on the rise of his salary. Fournier is still just 27, and a four year contract worth a total of $43 million would probably get the job done.

Left with their Bi-annual exception, the Nuggets need to approach this with caution. They will have even less flexibility in the following offseason, and would like to have that available to them. With that said, losing both Millsap and Plumlee needs to be addressed. Ideally, the team can bring in Daniel Theis or Richaun Holmes, but they will probably be out of their price range. The team should target Mike Scott, who would solve a noticeable problem that has plagued the Nuggets for a few years.

With Millsap on the floor, Denver is undeniably tougher defensively and on the glass. But their offensive ratings have been better with other big men such as Kenneth Faried. They need to find a big man who can stretch the floor and further drag the defense away from Jokic. Scott can be had for the bi-annual exception as a player who shoots 36% from his career from three point range. That’s nothing to write home about, but enough to require defensive attention.

Denver has an extra first round pick in its coffers, and could use it to potentially trade for another rotational player. They could also try to package the pick and Craig to try and add a third star to put next to Murray and Jokic. All in all, the Nuggets need more shooting, and need to downsize some as they try to wage battle with the Clippers and Lakers.