Previewing a first round series between Nuggets and Rockets
By Evan Siegel
The Denver Nuggets were slated as the third seed when the NBA suspended its season. The Rockets were penciled in as the third seed, leaving the two as first round opponents.
The Denver Nuggets have plenty to prove when play resumes. The Houston Rockets, while inconsistent and unpredictable, can be dangerously dynamic on any given night with their two superstar guards.
Russell Westbrook and James Harden pose a tough challenge for Denver’s backcourt. While experienced, Jamal Murray and Will Barton are still relative unknowns when it comes to postseason play. The team is still reeling from a gut-wrenching seven game defeat to the Portland Trail Blazers, and has yet to have a chance to exact revenge on the rest of the conference.
Between Nikola Jokic and Paul Millsap, the Rockets should be able to outmuscle the Rockets in the paint. The Rockets do not even use centers in their rotation and instead rely solely on their deep rotation of guards and wings to shoot other teams out of games and run up the score regardless of how it might cost them on the defensive end.
Houston ranks 16th in the league defensively, which is good enough for a team that pays as little attention to the defensive end as much as they do. Denver comes in at 12th, but has the perimeter defenders to make a tough impression on a game that might not necessarily show up on a stat sheet.
They only sit two tenths of a point outside the top ten. The Rockets, for all their three point shooting attempts, only rank 23rd in the league in 3-pt percentage. Denver sits at 15th at 36 percent, right in the middle of the pack for the entire league. Paul Millsap leads the team in three point percentage at 44 percent, which is an uncomfortable reality for a team rich in guard and wing talent.
In an unusual development, the Nuggets’ top three three point shooters happen to all sit in their front court. Michael Porter Jr., Jerami Grant, and Millsap happen to all shoot 40 percent or better from beyond the arc, while also standing 6”10 or taller in the front court. Denver is in need of more three point shooters with consistent range, whereas the Rockets need more shots to fall from beyond the arc.
Denver would have home court advantage in a first round series, and as a result would be able to have their mile-high advantage against the Rockets in the higher altitude. Denver could try to use Houston’s high-octane offense against them and hope that Houston’s high-flying style could be their undoing.
Once play stopped, Houston posted a road record of 18-14 on the road, compared to 22-10 at home. Denver, on the other hand, sits at 25-8 at home, and 18-14 on the road. Should these two teams face off in the first round, the Nuggets would have the clear edge in a seven-game series that could ultimately end in the Nuggets outlasting the Rockets better than they were able to outlast the Trail Blazers.
Portland shot just 33 percent from three point range in the series, but Denver managed only the same number. However, Denver’s half-court offense stalled considerably down the stretches of games two and six, when they managed just 90 and 96 points. Against Houston, Denver will have to adjust to the small-ball lineups better than they did against Portland, who were already missing Jusuf Nurkic by then.
Denver is well positioned to take on the Rockets from a personnel standpoint and with home court advantage. But they are going to have to be more consistent from the three point line and will have to a better job of adjusting to a team significantly smaller than them. Should they get past Houston, Denver will be one of just eight teams remaining, and likely the deepest roster left.