Who will Denver face if playoff teams are seeded 1-16?

The Denver Nuggets wouldn’t benefit from changing how teams that reach the NBA playoffs are seeded.

The Denver Nuggets could be in trouble.

According to ESPN’s Brian Windhorst (h/t Forbes Sports’ Chris Grenham), the NBA could seriously opt to resume NBA play with a 16-team playoff format, skipping over the remainder of the 2019-20 regular season. If this becomes the route that the league decides to take, there’s the possibility that teams will be seeded 1-16, rather than the familiar process of seeding teams 1-8 in their respective conferences.

This would mean that rather being the third seed in the Western Conference, the Denver Nuggets would become the sixth seed in the 2020 NBA Playoffs.

Here’s the full ranking of teams in this hypothetical playoff format:

1. Milwaukee Bucks (53-12)
2. Los Angeles Lakers (49-14)
3. Toronto Raptors (46-18)
4. Los Angeles Clippers (44-20)
5. Boston Celtics (43-21)
6. Denver Nuggets (43-22)
7. Utah Jazz (41-23)
8. Miami Heat (41-24)
9. Oklahoma City Thunder (40-24)
10. Houston Rockets (40-24)
11. Dallas Mavericks (40-27)
12. Indiana Pacers (39-26)
13. Philadelphia 76ers (39-26)
14. Memphis Grizzlies (32-33)
15. Brooklyn Nets (30-34)
16. Orlando Magic (30-35)

This would result in the Denver facing Dallas in the first round of the playoffs.

In the following round, they would face the winner of the Raptors and Grizzlies. If the Nuggets should defeat the winner of that matchup, they would face one of four teams — the Lakers, Nets, Rockets and Jazz in the semifinal round. The Lakers and Nets will face each other in the first round, pitting LeBron James against former teammate Kyrie Irving, while the Rockets and Jazz would play each other in the first round.

Defeating the team that made it to the Semifinals to face them would allow them to reach the NBA Finals.

The Nuggets went 1-2 against the Mavericks in the 2019-20 regular season, including the last game that either team played before the NBA stoppage, so this may not be the best matchup for them.

In the only game that Denver won against Dallas, Mavs star Luka Doncic went 3-12 from the field and scored just 12 points. In order for the Nuggets to actually defeat the Mavericks in the first round, they’ll have to do a much better job of corralling Dallas’ star, who scored 55 total points (with 19 total assists and 15 total rebounds) in their other two matchups.

As Denver shot above 47.0% from the field in each of those games, with at least four players scoring in double-figures, offense isn’t the issue for the Nuggets against the Mavericks (who rank 17th in defensive rating; 110.6). Defense is.

However, if they can manage to turn escape from Doncic and company, the next round won’t be any easier. Out of the Lakers, Nets, Rockets and Jazz, the only team they had a winning record against in the regular season was Utah.

Due to the All-Star duo of Anthony Davis and LeBron James, Los Angeles (who they were 1-2 against) has the best chance of entering the Semifinals from that group. With AD having proven himself to be even more dominant than Nikola Jokic and Denver not having any perimeter player on their roster as dominant as LeBron, this would be another tough matchup for them.

Frankly, it would be best if the Nuggets could avoid a playoff format where teams were seeded 1-16. Though they would face Houston in the first round in a traditional playoff format (if the league decided to skip the regular season), and the Rockets have two former MVPs in Russell Westbrook and James Harden dominating in the backcourt, neither of Houston’s stars are known for their defense nor will they have the size to slow Jokic down low.

Denver went 2-2 against the Rockets in 2019-20 and though it may seem like they should prefer facing the Mavericks, history shows that this isn’t the case.

Unfortunately for the Nuggets, no matter what format the league decides on, it won’t be easy.