The Denver Nuggets are one of the best teams in the NBA, but they won’t have a chance to win the Larry O’Brien Trophy without a rejuvenated Gary Harris.
The Denver Nuggets are approaching the most unpredictable postseason in NBA history. Success in the regular season has lost some of its meaning as home-court advantages has been removed, but we’ve also witnessed a virtual leveling of the playing field.
No one knows what to expect from the restarted 2019-20 season, but one thing is clear: If Denver is going to win its first NBA championship, Gary Harris will need to step up.
Denver is in the midst of what was on pace to be its second consecutive 50-win season. The Nuggets won 54 games and came within a Game 7 of reaching the 2019 Western Conference Finals, and have actually increased their win percentage from .659 to .662 in 2019-20.
Denver may or may not reach 50 wins due to the COVID-related circumstances, but its status as a contender is generally agreed upon.
Nikola Jokic is a favorite to make the All-NBA First Team for a second consecutive season. 2018-19 breakout star Jamal Murray has regressed from beyond the arc, but has also drastically improved his conversion rate from within the three-point line.
Furthermore, Denver has benefited immensely from rotational additions such as Jerami Grant and Michael Porter Jr., as well as the improved health of Will Barton.
The one area in which Denver continues to face absolute uncertainty, however, is figuring out what to expect of Harris.
It wasn’t long ago that Harris was a legitimate contender for Most Improved Player. In 2017-18, he averaged 17.5 points per game while shooting .485/.396/.827 and earning the reputation as one of the better two-way players in the NBA.
Harris continues to be regarded as one of the better defenders at his position—fourth amongst shooting guards in Defensive Real Plus-Minus—but his offensive output has suffered.
Justifiable or otherwise, that needs to change for Denver to have a legitimate championship window.
Harris battled injuries over the course of the 2018-19 season, missing 25 games due to hip, groin, and hamstring injuries. He’s struggled to get back on the right track in 2019-20, shooting just 42.0 percent from the field and 33.3 percent from distance despite playing in all but nine games.
Thankfully for Harris, the pause placed on the 2019-20 season provided him with a unique opportunity to address any lingering issues with his past injuries.
It’s worth noting that Harris was beginning to turn things around after the All-Star Break. In the 10 games that followed All-Star Weekend, Harris shot 53.2 percent from the field and 57.7 percent from beyond the arc, albeit on a limited number of shots.
That’s an undoubtedly encouraging sign for a Nuggets team that invested rather heavily in the idea of he and Murray becoming an elite backcourt tandem.
Harris is in the second season of a four-year, $84 million contract that doesn’t include a player or team option. Beyond the money, a healthy and productive Harris not only makes the game easier for Jokic and Murray, but adds an entirely new element to Denver’s system.
Harris is highly regarded for his defensive prowess, but his athleticism translates to both ends of the floor—which inevitably heightens the impact of his shooting.
Between 2015-16 and 2017-18, Harris shot 55.1 percent from two-point range and 38.0 percent from beyond the arc. He utilized his agility to blow by defenders, his explosiveness to finish above the rim, and a combination of the two to become a transition nightmare.
Harris slightly improved his two-point field goal and free throw percentage from 2018-19 to 2019-20, which at least implies that progress is being made.
The key will be Harris returning to the borderline marksman he’d become from beyond the arc. Leg injuries generally limit a player’s ability to get enough under their shot, which is likely the issue that Harris has been facing over the past two seasons.
It’s a return to the high 30s, if not low 40s, that will determine just how ready Harris is to play the role that’s required of him.
Unfortunately for Harris, the Nuggets are on pace to have a rather brutal path to a championship. Based on the current state of the standings, Denver is most likely to match up against the Dallas Mavericks or Houston Rockets in Round 1 of the NBA Playoffs.
In other words: If the Nuggets are going to work their way through the postseason, it could start with Luka Doncic or James Harden.
Daunting as that may be, if the Denver Nuggets get the real Gary Harris, the title drought could end.