Why the Nuggets should sign Serge Ibaka

The Denver Nuggets could fix a couple of glaring issues if they convince Serge Ibaka to sign in free agency.

Serge Ibaka would provide the Denver Nuggets’ with a big man who impacts the game on both ends of the court. With the team’s issues in rim-protection, as well as their need to add to their overall toughness and veteran leadership, he could turn out to be just what the doctor ordered in Denver.

An 11-year pro, Ibaka has made stops in Oklahoma City, Toronto and Orlando, winning an NBA championship and reaching the NBA Finals twice in his career (he’s went the Western Conference Finals on three other occasions). His experience and veteran status will allow him to be a knowledgeable team leader for the Nuggets and to enhance the culture as well, as he knows what Denver needs to step forward as a franchise.

Looking at Ibaka’s regular season and postseason stats from 2019-20, the numbers that stand out the most for the 31-year-old are his rebounds, blocks and 3-point percentage.

2019-20 regular season stats

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/16/2020.

2019-20 postseason stats

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/16/2020.

With four of the Nuggets’ frontcourt players — Jerami Grant, Paul Millsap, Torrey Craig and Mason Plumlee — expected to become free agents this offseason, Ibaka would be a worthwhile replacement for one of them

Where Denver needs the most help

The Nuggets ranked 19th in the NBA with 4.6 blocks per game in the regular season and 8th (out of 16 teams) in the NBA with 4.0 blocks per game in the postseason.

Of course, blocks aren’t the only statistic that can paint a picture of the interior defense, which is why it’s notable that they allowed their opponents to score 48.2 points in the paint per game in the regular season (ranked 16th in the NBA) and 45.8 points in the paint per game in the postseason (ranked 14th in the NBA).

Denver also ranked 24th in defensive rebounds (33.4 per game) during the regular season and 15th in defensive rebounds in the postseason with 31.4 per game.

In short, one of their issues could be size (no pun intended) and athleticism in the frontcourt.

To that point, Millsap is undersized as a 6’7″ power forward and his athletic ability is declining rapidly. In addition, Grant was seemingly allergic to rebounds, despite being a fluid athlete and 6’8″.

How Ibaka fared in those areas

Ibaka, though only averaging 0.8 blocks per game in the regular season, did so in a reserve role while upping his block average to 1.3 per game in the playoffs. Whether in the regular season or postseason, Denver didn’t have any player who averaged at least 1.0 block per game.

In addition, Ibaka held opponents to 51.5% shooting within six feet of the rim in the regular season (9.2% below their average percentage) and 52.6% shooting within six feet of the rim in the postseason (6.6% below their average percentage). For comparison, opponents shot 62.6% from the field within six feet of the rim against Nikola Jokic in the regular season and 61.4% in the playoffs.

Although not commonly thought of as a form of interior defense, defensive rebounds close an opponent’s possession and, as a result, they are.

Ibaka averaged 6.1 defensive rebounds per game in the regular season and 6.2 defensive rebounds per game in the postseason.

For comparison, Millsap averaged 3.8 defensive rebounds, Plumlee averaged 3.6 defensive rebounds and Grant averaged 2.7 defensive rebounds per game in the regular season. They averaged 3.3, 1.6, and 2.9 defensive rebounds per game in the playoffs, respectively.

Who Ibaka should replace

Because of the position he plays and his skillset, Ibaka would work equally well as a replacement for Millsap or Plumlee.

If replacing Millsap, he’ll enhance the team’s ability to protect the rim and crash the glass but if he’s replacing Plumlee, Ibaka will be able to space the floor in ways that Plumlee couldn’t imagine. In fact, his shooting ability would make Twin Tower lineups that have him playing beside Nikola Jokic instead of Plumlee feasible options.

Whether he replaces either player, he’s going to be a better scoring threat.

That said, I’m intrigued by the idea of letting both Millsap and Plumlee walk and adding Ibaka to a frontcourt rotation that features Grant, Jokic, Michael Porter Jr., Bol Bol.

With Grant, Porter and Jokic starting, Ibaka and Bol could come in off the bench for Porter and Jokic. As both of the African big men are able to play either power forward or center, such an adjustment would increase the Nuggets’ size, athleticism and skill from where they were in 2019-20.

In the event that Bol isn’t physically ready for the increased workload, Ibaka can be the full-time backup center while a player like Keita Bates-Diop enters the second unit.

What the Nuggets can offer

All Denver can offer Ibaka is the full mid-level exception of $9.3 million. After being paid $65 million over the last three seasons, it’s an amount that the veteran may not be comfortable with for more than a one-year or two-year deal but with career earnings of $118.4 million, there’s hope that he likes what he sees from the Nuggets enough to sign with them.

As with many veterans, Ibaka’s main priority could be competing for an NBA championship; Denver’s pitch would have to convince him that he had a better chance of that with them than with other teams interested in his service.

*All stats gathered from NBA.com and Basketball Reference