Denver Nuggets: Assessing Michael Porter Jr’s second full season

Michael Porter Jr has almost completed his second full season in the NBA and at 22-years-old, he has established himself as one of the more efficient scorers in the league. Let’s dive deeper into his year.

At the end of a loss against the Los Angeles Lakers last Monday, Michael Porter Jr had an up-and-down game. In the first half, he scored only three points and was negative-seven overall for the half.

In the second half, MPJ came out aggressive, he kept looking for his shots and made seven of his 11 attempts en route to a +11 second-half showing.

It would’ve been a little bit better if his three-point make in the last two minutes wasn’t waived off because of a Facundo Campazzo moving screen on Anthony Davis (but oh well).

While it still ended in a loss for the Nuggets, one in which they would’ve much rather had for seeding implications, it’s a snapshot of how far the 22-year-old has come despite only playing in his second full NBA season.

How Denver Nuggets rising star Michael Porter Jr. has done on offense

Porter is averaging 19.2 points and 7.4 rebounds per game while shooting 55 percent from the floor and 45 percent from behind the arc. These are all elite counting stats in their own right and since the Jamal Murray injury, MPJ’s averages have leapt to 26.7 points on 56/49/84 shooting splits.

On the season, he’s taking nearly as many 3-point attempts as he is two-pointers and it’s an easy life being a shot-happy wing when operating around Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. Scratch that, it’s easy being a human being when operating around Jokic and Murray.

His 3-point percentage is in the 93rd percentile among all forwards according to Cleaning the Glass and using the same metrics, he’s making 78 percent of his shots at the rim, which is only behind Gary Clark out of players who have played more than 300 minutes this season.

For a further reference, his rim shooting is slightly higher than Kevin Durant and Kawhi Leonard while his 3-point shooting is better than Khris Middleton and Paul George per Cleaning the Glass.

Now, it’s not a complete translation in terms of efficiency, all the other players I mentioned have larger offensive roles on their respective teams, but it bodes well that Porter can stay so efficient for the entire season.

When he steps on the court, the Nuggets’ offensive rating jumps up to 126, an elite mark according to basketball-reference.

It’s not long now until Kirk Goldsberry makes a graphic on MPJ’s production…

Losing Jamal Murray to a season-ending injury is extremely unfortunate and almost eliminates Denver’s title hopes for this season but a silver lining for it is that we’re going to see MPJ jump up to a permanent second option, especially in the playoffs.

In the bubble last season, MPJ’s production dropped as he took a huge step away from the scorching hot Murray and Jokic combo (and fairly so) but there was always this thought that he could do more, especially when nailing game-clinching shots against the LA Clippers.

Now is the time to do more. As the number two option behind presumptive MVP Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets currently sitting in the fourth spot in the Western Conference, we’ll likely see a few rounds of production. With a heavier focus on him and other teams getting a couple of chances trying to guard him, it’ll be the biggest hurdle of his young career thus far.

How Denver Nuggets rising star Michael Porter Jr. has done on defense

The biggest knock on Porter’s resume thus far has been his defense. Through two seasons, his effort on that end has ranged from disinterested to carefree.

Now, I’m all for a care-free life, especially during these COVID-19 times when mental health is at a premium but when it comes to guarding your player, less so.

For all the defensive schemes in the world, at the end of the day, it comes down to how hard a player wants to try on that end and get out get a hand in a player’s face. A good example of this is Stephen Curry, a player who has been targeted on the defensive end his entire career but his consistent effort on that end helps him be passable on that end and it has done wonders for his career (see NBA Finals results from 2015 through to present).

When Porter is on the court, opposing teams have a +1.3 percent effective field goal percentage and hit 2.7 percent more of their three-point attempts according to Cleaning the Glass. While only tiny improvements overall, those numbers are in the 26th and 15th percentile among all like-sized players this season – pretty bad.

On a random night in the regular season against the Houston Rockets, it might not matter that much. If the Nuggets end up facing the Dallas Mavericks in this first-round, having an elite offense shoot 2.7 percent better from behind the arc could be the difference between winning and losing.

Expect to see some icky media moments after a playoff game if Porter isn’t giving maximum effort on that end. Growing pains.

At only 22-years-old, there’s room for improvement and he isn’t the first young player to not defend that well. For all his defensive mishaps and as highlighted early in this piece, he more than makes up for it on the offensive end.

He’ll be getting some help in the form of Denver’s trade deadline acquisition Aaron Gordon. With similar body types, Gordon will be tasked with the ‘better’ offensive forward while MPJ can hide on the ‘worse’ player which is nice to have.

It’s fair to say that the Nuggets 2018 NBA Draft ‘risk’ of picking an injured player who was going to miss his rookie season has paid off. What other teams can say they’ll likely win a playoff series after their second-best player tears an ACL?

Let’s sit back and watch as a young scorer gets his first real look at carrying a load in the playoffs. It’s only up from here.