With home court advantage just about sealed, the Denver Nuggets can start to scheme for their first-round opponent. The 5-7 seeds in the Western Conference are separated by just one game, so the Nuggets will have to prepare for three very different series’.
Denver will surely finish in the third or fourth spot, which practically guarantees them a matchup against either one of the Dallas Mavericks, Portland Trail Blazers, or the Los Angeles Lakers. Either one of these opponents would definitely result in a hard-fought series that could very well go the distance.
Whoever they play, the Nuggets will have to focus on cultivating their strengths to be successful. After Jamal Murray’s injury, the Nuggets offense will have to run through Nikola Jokic that much more. Statistically speaking, the Nuggets offense is far less efficient when Jokic is on the floor without the Kitchener, Ontario native. This leaves a lot of room for players like Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, and Will Barton to step up.
Let’s take a look at how Head Coach Michael Malone can attack each one of these possible matchups.
How the Denver Nuggets match up with the Dallas Mavericks
A matchup that will have every European basketball fan salivating as it features three of the continents’ biggest stars. Luka Doncic had MVP expectations this season that he hasn’t quite lived up to. Instead, it’s been Nikola Jokic who’s become the front-runner in that conversation. Nevertheless, Doncic will surely look to prove his dominance in the post-season.
The expectations were sky-high for the Mavericks this year, and they have somewhat not lived up to the hype. The issue has been on the defensive end as the Mavs hold the 19th best defensive rating in the league, behind teams like the Chicago Bulls and the Detroit Pistons.
Considering the Nuggets hold the sixth-best offensive rating, Dallas could find it hard to keep the ball out of their basket.
Offensive focal point: Luka Doncic
Luka Magic is special, everybody knows that. He’s so crafty with the ball in his hands that you don’t even notice that he’s not that athletic.
He isn’t scared to shoot it from anywhere, but he’s also an excellent playmaker. Despite just turning 22, he has averaged over 28 points, eight rebounds, and almost nine assists this season. It’s baffling how he hasn’t been in the MVP conversation more often this season.
Defensive stopper: Josh Richardson
Not much to choose from here. Josh Richardson‘s first season in Dallas has been somewhat disappointing. He’s averaging his second-lowest PPG total in his career (12.2) but still holds a lot of value on the defensive end.
He is by far the best perimeter defender on the Mavs and he would likely be tasked with slowing down Michael Porter Jr. In a potential series. However, at only 6-foot-5 and just 200 pounds, that might be a very tough ask of Richardson.
X factor: Kristaps Porzingis
The third of the elite euro-boys, Kristaps Porzingis has endured another injury-ridden campaign. However, when the unicorn is healthy, he is an absolute headache for opposing coaches.
An athletic 7-foot-3 frame with legitimate 3-point range, Porzingis also has an under-rated ability to protect the rim, which was evident last year when he was tied for sixth in blocks. If healthy expect 20-plus points a game from him. It’s also worth noting that the three-to-four inches he has on Nikola Jokic could cause the Serbian some problems scoring the ball.
Matchup to exploit:
The health of Porzingis will no doubt be key to slowing down Nikola Jokic. Anybody who thinks that Dwight Powell or Maxi Kleber can shut down the Joker must be senile.
Despite his height disadvantage against Porzingis, Jokic has more than 40 pounds on the Latvian. He must use his strength in this matchup and play some bully-ball against the lanky Porzingis, showing him who the top European big-man is in the process.
How the Denver Nuggets match up with the Portland Trail Blazers
Probably the most favorable matchup of the three, the Portland Trail Blazers really don’t strike fear into many teams come playoff time. However, it would be foolish to underestimate Damian Lillard and the rest of this Trail Blazers team, as they have built arguably the most solid supporting cast that Lillard has ever had. The deadline day deal for Norman Powell and a healthy Jusuf Nurkic help the Blazers put a dangerous starting five onto the court.
Powell is having a career year, averaging 18.7 points per game, although his numbers have dropped slightly since moving from Toronto to Portland.
Nurkic is a double-double machine and he’s sure to see the court a lot in the playoffs since he’s only averaged just over 20 minutes per game since coming back from his wrist injury.
Enes Kanter did an adequate job as his replacement, giving the Blazers a real one-two punch at center.
Offensive focal point: Damian Lillard
Dame D.O.L.L.A. has been an underappreciated star in this league for a long time. He is the only player that can hold a candle up to Steph Curry’s shooting range.
Combine that with elusive quickness and elite handles and you get a bonafide superstar. Lillard’s offensive abilities only seem to get stronger late in games (no wonder they call it Dame Time) and nobody can argue about his clutch gene. His downfall has always been his defensive ability, but on offense, he is a tantalizing talent.
Defensive stopper: Robert Covington
If you thought that the Mavs had a terrible defensive rating, just wait until you hear Portland’s. The Trail Blazers are 29th in the league in defensive rating, beating out only the Sacramento Kings.
The Blazers have always been defensively challenged but they are hoping that veteran Forward Robert Covington can add some stops on that side of the floor. Ro-Co was an undrafted free agent who made his name on the Philadelphia 76ers as a 24-year-old.
Now in his seventh season, Covington does a good job on both the perimeter and inside. He should be assigned to slow down either one of Michael Porter Jr. or Aaron Gordon.
X factor: CJ McCollum
CJ McCollum is another magnificent scorer the Trail Blazers have. He is known primarily for his mid-range game, but really does a good job at scoring consistently from anywhere.
Considering that Monte Morris may not be healthy to start the playoffs, the two guards on Portland might be too much for the Nuggets to handle. PJ Dozier must bring his A-game defensively to try and slow down the Blazers’ attack.
Matchup to exploit:
As mentioned, the Blazers are an easy team to beat on the defensive end. They also play very small as Norman Powell is their starting small forward at 6-foot-4.
Considering the Nuggets Starting small forward is MPJ at a handsome 6-foot-10, this gives the Nuggets a chance to attack the Blazers’ shaky defense. Now Robert Covington might be assigned to try and nullify MPJ, in that case, Aaron Gordon will have to take it on himself to try and punish Norman Powell.
How the Denver Nuggets match up with the Los Angeles Lakers
A rematch of the Western Conference finals in last year’s bubble is undoubtedly the toughest matchup of the three.
Despite LA’s shaky form down the stretch of the regular season, they are still widely regarded as one of the favorites to hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy. With both Anthony Davis and LeBron James getting back up to speed after missing large portions of the season, the Lakers will be undoubtedly ready to go once the postseason commences.
Although the Lakers disposed of the Nuggets in five games last season, that series was a lot closer than people think. Who knows how that series could have looked if Mason Plumlee stayed on Anthony Davis in the dying seconds of Game 2 and didn’t allow the big man an open shot to win the game. Nikola Jokic also seems out for revenge after stating that he would welcome a rematch against the Lakers.
Offensive focal point: LeBron James
Absolutely no surprise here. Count on LeBron dictating the series just like he’s dictated every playoff series he has ever been in.
Mistakes will be at a premium as LeBron possesses one of the highest basketball IQs in NBA History. Who’s going to guard him? Aaron Gordon? Paul Millsap? MPJ? Good Luck.
The best bet is to try and limit his influence as much as humanly possible.
Defensive stopper: Anthony Davis
The skillset of a small forward in the body of a center, Anthony Davis is a force anywhere on the court. On the defensive end, he has the rare ability to be equally as dominant guarding the perimeter as he is protecting the rim.
This defensive prowess is second-to-none in a league where having a big man who can switch onto anybody is a rarity.
How he has never won a Defensive Player of the Year award is absolute ludacris. This is undoubtedly the toughest matchup for the Joker.
X factor: Dennis Shröder
The German guard can fill the bucket up in a hurry, and with the Nuggets lacking any real defenders at point guard, Shröder might be able to take advantage of Denver’s defense.
He averages over 15 points and almost six assists per game so far this season. This is also Shröder’s first time playing for a real contender, plus he’s on a contract year, so he really needs to show what he brings to the table.
After turning down a massive contract extension, he undoubtedly thinks of himself as a star in this league, which is questionable, to say the least.
Matchup to exploit:
This is a tough one to pick out, but the Lakers don’t have many great defenders playing at guard.
Alex Caruso and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are above-average defenders but Dennis Shröder is far from that.
In an ideal world, Jamal Murray would be the man to exploit this weakness, however, with that not being an option, the Nuggets need to get a superstar performance or two from their current guards. Whether it’s Facundo Campazo, PJ Dozier, Monte Morris (if healthy), or even Austin Rivers, Denver needs somebody to step up in Murray’s absence.