Nikola Jokic is the presumptive MVP for the 2020-21 season and in the home stretch of the season, he has solidified his position. Nugg Love looks at some of the better arguments for the Serbian to take home the highest individual award.
Entering this season, many were hyping up the young stars in the league like Luka Dončić or Jayson Tatum to take the next leap to an MVP-level season or even wondering if old candidates like Stephen Curry or LeBron James had what it took to win one more.
James Harden entered the season as a Houston Rocket and was traded to the Brooklyn Nets after eight games. He was on track to get in the conversation but injuries have limited his case.
Giannis Antetokounmpo has put together an MVP-worthy season but after failing to make a serious impact in the playoffs in back-to-back years, voters are likely going to shy away from awarding him again.
Then we move on to the top seeds of the conferences: the Phoenix Suns brought in Chris Paul but it’s a hard sell for that MVP discussion and the Philadelphia 76ers’ big man Joel Embiid (stop me if you’ve heard this before) might not have played enough games.
What we’re left with is the best offensive center in the NBA and possibility the history of the league, sitting all by his lonesome on the small market of Denver – Nikola Jokić.
Here are four reasons why Jokić will eventually attain the title of the 2020-21 NBA Most Valuable Player.
Why Denver Nuggets C Nikola Jokic deserves MVP: Offensive firepower
This season, Nikola Jokić is averaging 26.4 points, 8.5 assists, and 10.8 rebounds per contest, all career highs, and he’s doing it on 57-40-86 shooting splits. This is while opposing teams know exactly who’s going to have the ball in their hands for the majority of the time and without a hope in the world of stopping it.
He’s near the top of the league in usage (sitting at 29.4 percent) and when he’s on the court, the Nuggets have a 130 offensive rating and 109 defensive rating. For reference, the best overall offensive rating this season is Brooklyn with 118.1.
His 60.5 effective field goal percentage is actualized with some of the more back-breaking shots I’ve ever seen a player take. It seems like time and time again, other teams play solid defense for a whole 24 seconds, all for a flaming bag of poop to end up in Jokić’s hands before flying through the net.
On top of that, it seems like he and the rim are in cahoots sometimes; he’ll take an off-balance shot, he’ll throw in a quick put-back, or floater and the only reason he jumps up to “contest” the rebound is to make us mere mortals think he doesn’t know it’s going to bounce around and roll in.
The numbers support that as he’s in the 95th percentile and 87th percentile for his mid-range and three-point shots respectively per Cleaning the Glass. The only big men with a better shooting number from the mid-range with more than 1,000 minutes are Robin Lopez and Richaun Holmes.
But what’s impressive is that this is the most selfish Jokić has ever been in his career yet he still shares the ball as much as 20-year-old taking photos on their first trip to Europe.
When he’s on the court, the Nuggets’ offense jumps +12.9 points per 100 possessions according to Cleaning the Glass and his teammates shoot astronomically higher from nearly everywhere when sharing the court with the Big Tipper (I love that nickname).
I don’t often want to bring myself into articles because I’m very bad at basketball but I think if I shared the court with Jokić, I’d be set for at least nine points and they’d be some of the easiest ones I’ll ever get.
Pairing that passing ability with cutters, shooters, and elite athletes is a deadly combination, and Nuggets fans are lucky enough to get to watch it every night. Plus, fans of other teams would be lying to themselves if they didn’t get a wandering eye on NBA League Pass sometimes.
Why Denver Nuggets C Nikola Jokic deserves MVP: Improved defense
The biggest chink in Jokić’s armor has always been his defense. The talented big man can score with anyone in the league, but when he’s asked to defend in space, it gets tricky.
It’s also harder for the simple fact that Jokić plays the center position, the position that’s often the last line of defense for most trips down the court. While poor defensive players have won this trophy in the past, they’re usually not big men who have to stick their hands up under the rim most times.
Tim Connelly and the Nuggets brass have done an incredible job at surrounding Jokić with the right kinds of players: Paul Millsap and Aaron Gordon – two athletic, defensive-minded big men who can cover for Jokić and sometimes take the harder matchup from him.
But at the end of the day, if it’s big versus big, Jokić will have to sit there with the armbar in the back and then rotate over to protect the rim when needed.
This slide doesn’t exist to say he has done a full 180-degree turn, but he has shown progression on that side of the court, so much so that he’s not a gaping hole anymore.
Nuggets fans will remember the ‘Euro fouls’ he used to commit when he simply couldn’t shuffle his feet fast enough to stay in front of the player which not only gave the other team an advantage, it also put another foul on Denver’s best player – not good.
The aforementioned 109 defensive rating from basketball-reference is a solid number but when looking at other outlets measurements, it jumps to a 114.4 per PBP Stats and +8.2 points worse via Cleaning the Glass.
What he does do well is rebound the ball, an underrated component of defense. Using the same Cleaning the Glass numbers, he pulls down 23.1 percent of opponent misses, an elite number, and this season he has stayed out of foul trouble to a career-high 3.1 percent.
When limiting those numbers to just two-point field goals, he pulls down 27.1 percent of those rebounds according to PBP Stats. Rudy Gobert’s number is 26.5 percent on two-point misses.
By no means is Jokić a perfect defender, but he has made strides in the area and his offense far outweighs his defensive shortcomings. “Quickly, change the slide,” yells Denver fans.
Why Denver Nuggets C Nikola Jokic deserves MVP: Availability
The Denver Nuggets are currently the fourth seed in the Western Conference with a 44 and 24 record in this COVID-shortened season. Jokić has played in every single one of those games and plays rain, hail, or shine.
It might be unfair to critique players for missing time due to injury (the push back on Embiid and Harden) but in a league where all you can do is play who’s in front of you, Jokić has played everyone in front of him and has been the best player on the court for nearly the entire time.
That’s impressive and a credit to his durability.
And as they say, the best ability is availability.
Also, fun fact, the last MVP to play in every single game was Kobe Bryant in 2007-08, playing the full 82. While a shortened season, Jokić can still have appeared in every game.
Why Denver Nuggets C Nikola Jokic deserves MVP: Storyline (it matters)
As the 41st overall pick in the 2014 NBA Draft, Nikola Jokić wasn’t supposed to be this good. In fact, the Nuggets were starting Jusuf Nurkic at center, hoping he would grow into the full-time starter and in his first couple of seasons, Jokić shared his time between center and power forward.
He quickly grew into an edgy NBA League Pass owner’s favorite player with Zach Lowe constantly praising the Serbian.
From there, the Nuggets further empowered him, moving on from Nurkić in a trade with the Portland Trail Blazers back in 2017 to open up more opportunities for Jokić to grow and grow he did. This is all building on ‘Jokić Day’, the day Jokić officially became the Nuggets starting center and (hopefully) official public holiday in Colorado soon.
Since then, it has been strength-to-strength and the Nuggets past few seasons have included spots at second and third in the Western Conference and some deep playoff runs, some short playoff runs, and some harsh lessons on a final night of the season play-in with the Minnesota Timberwolves in the 2017-18 season.
Oh, and we got to experience skinny Jokić. Before the NBA Bubble, Jokić came into the training camp skinnier than his usual cuddly self and some people thought it would be a bad thing. Wow, hindsight is 20-20.
David Thorpe re-shared his excellent take on the topic in his most recent piece:
"“Some suggested losing weight would sap his essence. I say weighing more worked like a training exercise. Not being able to run fast or jump high absolutely led Jokic to innovate crafty moves. He had to develop incredible touch on his paint shots, because he just couldn’t run past or jump over defenders. He created special tools for himself to survive in a sport that favors the incredibly athletic. Now that he has all those tools and can move, he has played better than anyone in the NBA so far this season.”"
And here we are, a second-round pick who wasn’t even considered a backup center on his own team is now the best center in the league and about to become the best individual player while doing so.