Denver Nuggets: How the playoff rotation might look

Denver Nuggets: Starting five

While there were a ton of one-off starting fives used by Mike Malone over the final few games, we have a pretty good idea of how the Denver Nuggets’ starting five will look once their playoff series against the Portland Trail Blazers gets underway. Obviously, the NBA’s presumptive 2020-2021 MVP, Nikola Jokic, is going to start and be the focal point of Denver’s offense.

Jokic was among the league leaders in usage percentage over the final month of the season after sidekick Jamal Murray went down with an ACL tear, posting a 31.2 mark. We would expect the Joker to boost those numbers in the playoffs to around a 40 percent usage rate as he hoists his Nuggets teammates onto his back for what could be an intriguing playoff run.

While Jokic was averaging just under 37 minutes a night in last year’s playoff run, we’d expect the big Serb to play 40 minutes on a regular basis against the Blazers barring blowouts and the like. The Blazers rely on a pair of seven-footers in Jusuf Nurkic and Enes Kanter, so Jokic will be even more important than usual.

Joker had 21 points in just 17 minutes on Sunday night against the Blazers, 29 points, nine boards, and five dimes in an April win against Portland, and he dropped 41 in a February victory against Lillard’s squad as well.

Flanking the next NBA MVP in the frontcourt will be emerging superstar Michael Porter Jr. and shrewd trade deadline acquisition, Aaron Gordon. Along with Jokic, MPJ has been the picture of offensive efficiency since Murray went down in mid-April.

Since then, the uber-talented and extremely athletic 22-year-old has led the Nuggets with 33.4 minutes per game while scoring 23.4 points per contest on 56 percent shooting from the field and 49 percent shooting from downtown.

If Porter can drag that insane efficiency with him into the postseason, the Nuggets will be in a very encouraging spot with their top two offensive players scoring the rock at a 55-plus percent rate. That’s going to be hard to beat for anyone. We’d expect just below 40 minutes a game for the inimitable MPJ as well.

Gordon has been slightly underwhelming since joining the team, only showing flashes of his world-class athleticism. Surprisingly, it has been Denver’s defense that has seen the most improvement since Gordon’s arrival: his ability to defend the two, the three, and the four has been a real asset. Depending on how Gordon’s shot is rolling, we’d expect him to get playing time in the 25-30 minute range.

In the backcourt, we are likely to see the duo of Facundo Campazzo and Austin Rivers starting most postseason games. This would evidently change if the likes of PJ Dozier (possible) and/or Will Barton (unlikely) make a miraculous return to the lineup in the next couple of weeks.

Campazzo and Rivers both play with a chip on their shoulders, serving as some of the peskiest and most annoying backcourt defenders in the league. The Argentinian Energizer Bunny, Campazzo, has been a revelation since stepping into the starting five after the Blue Arrow went down.

Not only has he continued with his ridiculous activity-level on defense but he has improved his offensive game as well. He’s still got work to do on his jumper, but the diminutive South American does seem to drain shots at the biggest moments. Considering his EuroLeague track record, this is definitely not someone who shies away from the moment.

His improved playmaking will also help lighten the load on his Serbian comrade. Facu has averaged 5.7 dimes per game since joining the starting group, and his 3.6 assist-to-turnover ratio is by far the best on the team. We would expect Campazzo to continue playing the third-most minutes on the team, behind only MPJ and Jokic.

After draining just six triples in his first eight games with the Nuggets, Rivers seems to be catching fire at just the right time. And if you know anything about Rivers, you know he’s about as streaky as they come, so this current heater is very encouraging.

Something clicked when he took on his old team, the New York Knicks, on May 5. He dropped 25 points and matched his triple output from the previous eight outings (six) in just one game. Since that day, Rivers has averaged 12.6 points and 3.0 triples per game on 48 percent shooting from the field and 50 percent shooting from deep. As long as the jimmy is falling, you can expect about 30 minutes a game for Rivers.

If Rivers and MPJ can keep their catch and shoot efficiency up—which shouldn’t be tough considering the passers they’re playing with in Joker and Facu—and Joker continues his MVP-level of play, this starting five should be able to dominate opponents. Can the second unit give them enough support, though?