There is a lot to learn from the Denver Nuggets‘ playoff series victory versus the Portland Trail Blazers last week, and but there was one consistent theme in every game that swayed the series and kept Portland from gaining momentum: capitalizing with Jusuf Nurkic off the floor.
It was noticeable in every game, but the close-out matchup is where this issue shined the most. In Game 6, Portland led with command for most of the first half and the start of the third quarter. They were able to escape Nurkic’s time on the bench in the first half unscathed and he somehow had zero fouls until the 7:03 mark of the third quarter.
However, just five long minutes later, that number had climbed to four. This forced Portland head coach Terry Stotts to take out Nurkic with a 97-89 point advantage and two minutes to go in the third.
Just as it seemed Portland would squeak out with a win and force a Game 7, the Nuggets were able to turn things on versus the Blazers’ weaker defensive unit, and they closed the third quarter on a 9-4 run.
Nurkic didn’t re-enter the game until the seven-minute mark of the fourth quarter when the Blazers still had a one-point lead. Unfortunately for the Portland faithful, it was too late. The Nuggets already had too much momentum going, and putting Nurkic out there did nothing to stop the offensive onslaught that would continue.
Damian Lillard is one of the toughest players to contain when the series is on the line and it’s late in the game, but even he couldn’t counter what Denver was bringing at them on the offensive end to close the game.
It was getting to the point where taking Nurkic off the floor was like having one of your players sent to the penalty box. Collin Sexton and his Alabama team that had to play 3-on-5 against 14th-ranked Minnesota in 2017 were able to put up a better fight than the Blazers’ defense without their starting center.
Enes Kanter was basically non-existent inside and with Zach Collins still injured, there wasn’t any other big force to guard the paint effectively. With Nurkic on the floor this series, Denver posted an offensive rating of 115.1, but with him on the bench, the number soared to 137.7.
Besides fatigue, there was another factor influencing Head Coach Terry Stotts’ minute allocation with Nurkic: fouling out.
Nurkic averaged only 2.8 personal fouls per game over 36 contests this regular season. However, in the series against the Denver Nuggets, that number jumped to five. He fouled out in three of six games and played less than 25 minutes in two of those because of foul trouble. The Blazers lost both of those games.
When you have a big man like Nikola Jokic who has a ridiculous toolset in his post game, the entire opposing defense will fall apart if the man in the middle can’t hold his own. And because Joker is such a talented passer as well, the threat of him tossing a pass to an open teammate behind the arc is almost as dangerous as trying to score himself.
And the Blazers’ problems with interior defense didn’t go away when Jokic sat, either. Out of the three Nuggets lineups that saw more than 25 minutes total this series, the one featuring Monte Morris, Markus Howard, Michael Porter Jr., JaMychal Green, and Paul Millsap was the only one to have a positive net rating at 33.7.
What can the Denver Nuggets learn from their last series: How does it apply to the Phoenix Suns?
The second-seeded Phoenix Suns are up next in the second round, and their center, Deandre Ayton, just played some of the best basketball of his career in the first round versus the Los Angeles Lakers.
With the purple and gold missing their star big Anthony Davis, Ayton was able to feast inside, averaging 15.8 points and 10.7 rebounds per game on 79.6 percent shooting, which is absolutely ridiculous.
Like the Blazers, the Suns also feature a lethal guard duo and a talented man inside. Chris Paul has been battling a shoulder injury that seems to be affecting him, so it will be interesting to keep an eye on how he matches up with Facundo Campazzo and Monte Morris. Devin Booker has now proven himself as one of the most vicious scorers in the league, so limiting him and his 29.7 points per game
Getting Nurkic into foul trouble was key for limiting his minutes, so trying to get Ayton some whistles will be key to getting some extra easy buckets inside while he’s off the floor. Dario Saric and Frank Kaminsky are both solid pieces off the bench but aren’t the same force Ayton is. Millsap and Green match up well with both of them, so watching the second units fight it out will be a fun battle to watch.
Similar to the Blazers series, the Denver Nuggets may have a chance to capitalize in the paint against the Suns when Ayton is off the court.
One scary thing to think about for Nuggets fans is that Jokic revealed just a few days ago that Ayton is the matchup that has given him the most trouble this season.
In their three games against each other this year, Jokic’s true shooting percentage with Ayton on the court is 51.8. With Ayton off? 75.8.
This definitely warrants some concern, but the Nuggets will be sure to try and switch Jokic onto any other Phoenix starter whenever possible and exploit other weak points in their defense, who ranked sixth in the league in defensive rating and seventh in defensive efficiency.