Denver Nuggets: The case against extending Michael Porter Jr

Michael Porter Jr is eligible for a contract extension from the Denver Nuggets this offseason and while it might be a no-brainer to extend the 23-year-old, there are some benefits in waiting.

The Nuggets got possibly the steal of the draft in 2018 as the Missouri product fell to the 14th pick with concerns around his health. Luckily for the Denver Nuggets, they didn’t need immediate help and could slow play his injury, letting him sit out an entire season.

That gamble has paid off in buckets as this past season, MPJ averaged 19 points with a 66 true shooting percentage, lighting it up from all over the court.

The most Denver can offer MPJ is a five-year, $168 million extension. That’s the highest number but Tim Connelly and the front office could offer him anything below that or include several clauses like games played or minutes played to safeguard the team from a catastrophic injury.

Keeping in mind as well, this iteration of the Nuggets front office has been eager to lock up their players earlier. We saw this with Jamal Murray’s extension a year before it was needed and Nikola Jokic signing as soon as he could.

Connelly echoed this thought during his postseason press conference:

"“We’ve had a lot of luck getting things done early rather than later, and I think it’s helped with our culture. These guys are colleagues, they’re not assets. The more proactive we can be with trying to build a sustainable roster, the better.”"

But what if Denver doesn’t offer him his extension this offseason?

Entering the final year of his rookie deal, MPJ would remain with the team next season and could sign the exact same contract at the end of next season. The only benefit for signing Porter now is to remove any possibility of him signing a shorter offer sheet with another team, potentially cutting into his time with the Nuggets.

We haven’t heard of any major issues between MPJ and this front office. At face value, there’s no reason why they wouldn’t want an extension in Denver, especially since it’s very hard for young players to gain leverage and request a trade in the league.

The benefit for Denver not offering an extension is that he will be eligible to be traded for the entirety of next season. I’m not writing that to say ‘move MPJ, the sky is falling!’, I’m writing it to say ‘rookie contracts are easier to move and include in bigger packages’.

In any scenario where the Nuggets make a splash on the trade market for a star, MPJ’s negligible salary (in the grand scheme of things) can be thrown into a possible trade as a sweetener.

If Damian Lillard is truly available, MPJ would be a max-level player being paid next to nothing. He’d likely be the centerpiece of a trade that makes life easier for the receiving team since they won’t need to match an exorbitant salary.

Yes, he can be traded by the deadline (he can be traded three months after signing an extension) if MPJ does sign an extension, but what if the receiving team thinks they can play hardball and lock him up for a smaller number. They then lose the ability to decide what MPJ’s next contract will be.

You can make this same argument for Bradley Beal and the Washington Wizards. They might see MPJ as the best returning asset if they want to move on from their scoring guard, this means Denver can trade MPJ and matching salary, it doesn’t limit them to just moving Jamal Murray.

Those two examples might not work if the players are still happy on their team. But what if they show up to training camp and realize it isn’t for them.

James Harden played the start of this past season clearly unhappy and wanting out of town. If there was a similar situation next season with an unhappy star, Denver would be immediately out of trade talks since MPJ, their best trade chip, just signed an extension.

At the end of the day, trading core players isn’t something the Denver Nuggets have done, or have said they plan to do.

Expect both sides to come to an agreement this offseason, but also keep an eye out for disgruntled stars at the start of the season and think about what could’ve been.