Should the Denver Nuggets trade for Ben Simmons?

After a disappointing second-round playoff exit at the hands of Trae Young and the Atlanta Hawks, Ben Simmons‘s days with the Philadelphia 76ers might be numbered. With the assets primed to make a move, should the Denver Nuggets push their chips in and trade for the forward?

Simmons hasn’t officially requested a trade, nor has 76ers president of basketball operations Daryl Morey said he’s fielding calls. If we rewind to the start of the season when James Harden was about to be traded from the Houston Rockets, Morey said he’s not trading Simmons, and that he’s “an important part of our future”.

The loss to the Hawks exposed Simmons’ weaknesses and played a major role in Atlanta’s victory.

After being intentionally fouled for most of the series, Simmons finished hitting 33 percent of his free throws, making a total of 15 out of 45. With him and the team scared to see him get the ball and end up on the line, he failed to make an impact, only averaging 9.9 points in the seven games.

It gets even harder when looking at the 76ers roster. Their best player, Joel Embiid, prefers to spend most of his time under the basket, just like Simmons. Embiid, runner-up for the 2020-21 MVP, is simply much better at it.

With NBA Twitter and the rumor mill in full swing, should the Nuggets look to trade for Simmons? He’s still an elite playmaker, defender, and generates some of the best shots for his teammates, is that upside worth the risk?

Denver Nuggets: What would a Ben Simmons trade look like?

Assuming that both Denver wants to keep Jamal Murray and Philadelphia wants no part of a guy who’s missing most of next season, the Nuggets would have to cobble together a collection of players.

The first piece of business here is that it involves Barton picking up his Player Option for the 2021-22 season. From there, it’d leave Denver with about $6 million below the tax line to replace the three players going out, re-sign Paul Millsap, and make any other moves.

It’d really hurt Denver’s depth, especially if they were hoping to draft a rotation piece in the upcoming draft. But the starting five would be elite when healthy with Murray, Simmons, Michael Porter Jr, Millsap, and Nikola Jokic.

For Philadelphia, they essentially refill the asset base with a couple of draft picks and some matching salaries. Even if they decide to keep the players, AG would fit right in at the four next to Joel Embiid, Morris is one of the best guards off the bench, and if he can stay healthy, Barton can be another scoring option on the wing.

This would be selling at an all-time low for Philly. Ben’s trade value might not be lower than it is right now, so it’s unlikely they would want to move him now, rather than when he recoups some value.

Denver Nuggets: Why would we want Ben Simmons?

Simmons is an offense all unto himself, ironic considering his offense was what landed him in trade rumors this offseason.

This season, he averaged 14.3 points while tallying 6.9 assists a night, shooting 56 percent from the field. The points and assists are actually a career-low but he accepted his role as the second option behind Embiid as he rose to an MVP level.

Philly had the tenth-best offense and 13th-best defense this season per Cleaning the Glass and Simmons was essential to both those figures. They had the fifth-most transition opportunities at 16 percent of offensive possessions using Cleaning the Glass and they were in the upper echelon of the league at scoring off steals.

When Simmons was on the court, the 76ers scored 3.3 more points per 100 possessions and held opponents to 3.1 points less than when he sat according to Cleaning the Glass.

With Simmons on the court, his teammates shoot 4.3 percentage points better from three than when he’s not and 12.4 percent (!) better from the corner. He also serves the shots to his teammates on an ideal shot profile with most of his assists coming on threes and short mid-rangers/floater range.

He also starts a lot of transition opportunities for his teammates. His +4.6 percent of shots on the break is only eclipsed by Danny Green and Giannis Antetokounmpo with Cleaning the Glass’ garbage time filter. Not bad at all.

Outside of those pretty numbers, where it gets gross is obvious. He can’t shoot. Out of his 538 field goal attempts this season, 15 of them came from outside of 15-feet.

Denver Nuggets: Is a Ben Simmons trade worth it?

The combination of scoring and getting his teammates for a big man is matched only by… Nikola Jokic. The Big Honey is also much better on offense and that’s an understatement.

There would be questions about Simmons’ fit alongside another star big man, but with Jokic’s quick passing and skill as a shooter, he’d immediately be a smoother fit than Embiid who wants to hold the rock in the post.

Unlike Embiid, Jokic doesn’t necessarily need the playmaking Simmons provides. Jamal Murray is a sub-par playmaker for Denver and the offense has flowed fine through Nikola. If a Simmons-Jokic pairing devolves into my turn, your turn, then we’re wasting perfect Jokic opportunities.

Where this trade shines is the defensive potential. Embiid is a perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate and, understandably, Philly wants to focus their defense on the big man.

Jokic is… putting it nicely, not a perennial DPoY candidate. The beauty of the Gordon trade is that he’s a big wing who can switch any pick-and-roll if needed but is sturdy enough to take bigger matchups if needed. Simmons has a similar defensive ability but on steroids and it’d be interesting to see what Michael Malone could do on defense with Ben as the primary focus.

Instead of Chris Paul and Devin Booker dribbling into a backpedaling Jokic each time down, they’d have Simmons hounding them over screens and bothering the guards with his length.

And imagine transition, Jokic already dazzles with his pinpoint passing to guards leaking out (see Harris, Gary about twice a night). Now substitute that for the much taller Simmons with a wide-open run to the rim or the ability to make a smart decision.

Once Jamal returns from his ACL injury, Denver will look to its bread and butter down the end of games: the Murray-Jokic pick-and-roll. In that set, Simmons is either sitting under the rim, pulling in another defender, or sitting in the corner, being unguarded.

At the end of the day, no matter how much he helps on defense, no matter how many more transition opportunities there are, if Simmons can’t shoot, and the ball’s out of his hands, he hinders more than helps.

Maybe he learns to shoot, maybe he improves, but if that’s the case, Philly isn’t trading him.

It’s not worth the risk.