The 2020-21 season for the Denver Nuggets was a success. No, it didn’t end in a title, but the team was able to replace Jerami Grant’s departure with a mid-season trade, and still win a playoff series without Jamal Murray, the team’s second-best player.
A sweep at the hands of the Phoenix Suns stings, but without Jamal, this team isn’t a title contender and at least we got to see the MVP Nikola Jokic torch the Portland Trail Blazers.
The end goal for this team is to win its first NBA championship and as team president of basketball operations Tim Connelly said in his end-of-season press conference; “until we’re having this press conference after we win a championship, we’re falling short”.
Jamal’s injury couldn’t have come at a worse time. The COVID-shortened 2020-21 season crammed in as many games as they could this year, meaning Murray’s possible 12-month recovery timeline could see him missing the entire following season.
Because of this, the Nuggets will likely change their outlook on this offseason. With a healthy Jamal, the goal would’ve been to retool and build around this core to contend in 2021-22. With Murray sidelined, Denver can focus on competing in the 2022-23 season, after which Murray should be ramping back to full strength.
This ideology of focusing on the 2022-23 season puts Connelly and the Nuggets brass in an interesting position. It’s a terrible fate to miss a year of contention, but Denver can spend this season developing and testing out some players to see if they’re worthy of being on the roster.
Let’s get into the first order of business in the 2021 offseason:
Denver Nuggets dream offseason: What to do with Will Barton?
So much of the Denver Nuggets’ offseason starts with Will Barton and his impending Player Option decision.
Two weeks ago, Barton hired a new agency to represent himself which likely signals there is some contract work to be done. The deadline for his Player Option worth $14.6 million is 1 Aug. and even if he declines it, it doesn’t necessarily mean he’s leaving Colorado.
Will the Thrill is the longest-tenured Nugget on the roster and has been on this team throughout the entire rebuild. His role has changed over the years as he’s moved in and out of the starting lineup many times.
Entering his age-31 season, Barton is in the twilight of his prime and his next contract might be his last above the minimum. He posted averages of 12.7 points and four rebounds this past season but health issues again sidelined him in the playoffs until the final few games against Phoenix.
He could full-well pick up his option and then test free agency the following offseason, but he could also opt out and resign with Denver for more money across more years.
Head coach Michael Malone said in his postseason press conference that he wants Will back next season:
"“He means a ton to this team and everything we’ve been able to accomplish these last six years. … Me, personally, I hope he’s back here for a long time.”"
With Jamal’s injury, there are more touches on the wing going around and while Denver will have to address his absence this offseason regardless, asking more of Barton is something he can do.
The two pathways I see here are either Will opts out and resigns for a longer deal or he leaves Denver altogether.
If he stays, he’ll take more shots next season but be relegated to the bench when the team is at full strength. If he goes, it opens up a lot of cap space under the tax line for Denver to go shopping in free agency. Speaking of:
Denver Nuggets dream offseason: Replace Jamal Murray’s regular season production
When this team is competing for a title, it’s because Jamal Murray is one of the starting guards. Until then, Connelly will have to find a stopgap, someone to soak up the minute load.
Building off the Will Barton section, if he decides to return on a long-term deal or via his Player Option, Denver will be both short on cap space to sign a Jamal replacement as well as have an internal answer.
If Barton leaves, some of the free agent guards out there aren’t too shabby. There aren’t many top-tier players that Denver could afford, but there are sturdy veterans and stable young players out there.
Some of the names that could be in Denver’s price range are Derrick Rose, Bryn Forbes, Lou Williams, Elfrid Payton, Cam Payne, Rodney Hood (non-guaranteed contract), Josh Richardson (Player Option), and Cory Joseph.
Rose and Lou would be best-case scenarios as players who can help the offense but be happy taking a backseat when Murray returns. The major issue with those two is they mean a lot to their current teams, New York and Atlanta, and those two teams have more than enough cap space to bring them back.
If the original team wants to overvalue their own players, they’ll likely win the bidding war. If the money is even – Denver can offer a bigger role on a better team next to a pass-first MVP. Hard to turn down.
The less-sexy names on the list like Joseph and Forbes will always be around but they’re very one-dimensional and better off as role players. That’s in a perfect world and if Denver can’t afford one of the favorable signees, they might have to settle for an imperfect fit.
Another way Denver can fill the Jamal void is through the NBA Draft. Drafting late in the first round gives the team a choice of one of the lesser valued players, but there is always the potential for a steal like Denver has been able to do with players like Monte Morris, Malik Beasley, and Nikola Jokic to name a few.
Denver Nuggets dream offseason: Hit on the 2021 NBA Draft
After losing a tiebreaker with the LA Clippers, the Denver Nuggets own the 26th pick in the 2021 NBA Draft.
Nugg Love has been through some of the potential options with this pick including Usman Garuba, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, and Jared Butler. Martin Znasik also went through some of the NBA-ready and high-ceiling prospects available.
Tim Connelly had an interesting comment during his press conference which looks like he’ll be prioritizing the draft before moving on to free agency decisions:
"“We’re always trying to get better. Certainly, we have a handful of free agents that we’re hopeful we can retain, but we won’t have real certainty about what our roster might look like until post-draft.”"
With the draft literally before free agency, yes, it makes sense. It’ll also be interesting to see if the front office thinks the 26th pick (or higher) can be the player who fills in Jamal’s production.
Assuming the team is working on a timeline of competing in 2022-23, the player Denver drafts this offseason will have a full year of development under its belt. If the draftee can be an actual contributor to winning, they’ll be on a rookie scale deal for the span of Denver’s title window, an important piece to a winning roster.
The draft is too far away to truly narrow down which prospects will be available and where, but this one is incredibly important if it gives Denver a contributor.
Denver Nuggets dream offseason: Add perimeter defense
If these playoffs showed us anything, it was that the Denver Nuggets are in desperate need of a perimeter stopper.
This role has been Gary Harris’ in the past and Jerami Grant in a pinch (or against bigger wings) but with Grant leaving and Harris with the Orlando Magic after the Aaron Gordon trade, the Nuggets need a new 3-and-D role player.
Unfortunately for Denver, all 30 teams need more 3-and-D role players and the pool of players is few and far between.
AG was able to help in the Portland series, switching out against Damian Lillard and sometimes being the primary defensive option. It worked against Portland but didn’t in the Phoenix series where they had lethal shooters around their pick-and-roll action.
Some of the best defensive wings in this year’s free agency class who might be in Denver’s price range are alright fits. There’s Wesley Matthews, Trevor Ariza, Avery Bradley (Team Option), Kent Bazemore, Otto Porter, and Abdel Nader.
None of those players are true difference-makers on that end, just solid role players, but if Will Barton picks up his option or declines and extends with Denver, those are the kind of names the Nuggets will be looking at.
That, unfortunately, is the problem with committing so much money to poor defensive players like Nikola Jokic and possibly Michael Porter Jr (more on that in the next slide).
If the Nuggets want to jump a tier and sign one of the better defensive wings on the market while keeping their core intact, the best way to do that is to trade Will Barton. I wrote about a potential Kelly Oubre Jr sign-and-trade a few weeks ago and maybe Denver can get in the conversation with a Justise Winslow (Team Option) or Jae’Sean Tate (potential non-guarantee) but it’s difficult.
Premium wing defenders don’t grow on trees. This will be the hardest piece of the puzzle for Tim Connelly but with Jamal’s injury, the team will have two seasons to try and find a good fit.
Denver Nuggets dream offseason: Extend Michael Porter Jr
Michael Porter Jr is extension eligible this offseason, meaning he can sign an extension to his rookie deal this offseason if both he and the team want to.
Connelly has said it’s a priority in his postseason press conference and it’s on-brand for this front office to retain its in-house talent:
"“We know how bad [Michael Porter Jr] wants (a title). We want it just as bad. … He’s basketball-obsessed. His work ethic is an A-plus. It’s fun when you see guys like that where he had to battle through adversity and all the injuries. We’ll sit down with Michael’s representation. Our M.O. is when we can, we try to lock guys up and reward them for what they’ve done. “We’ve had a lot of luck getting things done early rather than later, and I think it’s helped with our culture. These guys are colleagues, they’re not assets. The more proactive we can be with trying to build a sustainable roster, the better.”"
If an extension is on the way, MPJ and his representation would surely be asking for the maximum, meaning this Nuggets team is going to get expensive soon with three players on their max (Jokic and Jamal).
By not extending him this summer, MPJ will still be eligible to be included in trades under the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. If he were to extend, then the team would lose that ability until three months after the trade – eliminating them from most early season trades if that’s on their mind.
At the end of the day, it doesn’t look as though there is a star on the move worthy of holding out on a Porter extension. Last season, James Harden had publicly requested a trade that didn’t occur until the season had started. This season, there doesn’t appear to be anyone of that caliber out there (yet…).
The safest and most likely move here is to come to an agreement with MPJ, locking him up on a multi-year contract, and confidently moving forwards knowing that the core of Jokic, Murray, and MPJ is here for the foreseeable future.
What does that extension look like? Check out this article to see Nugg Love break it down.
Denver Nuggets dream offseason: Be patient
This Denver Nuggets team doesn’t skip steps. The Connelly mantra has been to build slowly and through the draft.
If it weren’t for Jamal’s injury, maybe Denver would have beaten Phoenix, go on to beat the Kawhi-less LA Clippers, and would be in the NBA Finals right now. It sucks.
These are the circumstances the Nuggets find themselves in and there’s no reason for Connelly to push this team ahead. Next season, Jamal will be 24, Jokic will be 26, MPJ will be 23, and Monte will be 26.
There is plenty of time to grow with these players and Denver will have next season to build chemistry, refill the talent pool through the draft and free agency, and make a hard push for a title in the 2022-23 season.
The best part about this timeline is that it might age out some of the current contenders. Denver’s young core is only getting better while the Golden State Warriors, LA Lakers, and Brooklyn Nets are only getting older.
There’s a new crop of teams coming through and there’s all the reason to believe that the Denver Nuggets can be the best of those teams. I don’t know about you, but I’m super excited to watch it happen.