Should the Denver Nuggets buy low on Collin Sexton?

With one year remaining on his rookie contract, Collin Sexton might be traded from the Cleveland Cavaliers. Is there a rationale behind the Denver Nuggets making a move for the young guard?

Before getting into Denver’s reasoning, let’s look at the rough past couple of weeks Sexton has had.

It all started on 24 Jun., the Cavaliers made it clear that they’ll explore the trade market for their young guard – Young Bull, if you will – via Jeremy Woo, Sports Illustrated.

This must have come from Koby Altman and the front office and it came after many talking heads (myself included) wondered if Sexton would receive a contract extension as he enters the final year of his rookie deal.

Five days later, on 29 Jun., Collin reportedly has the “impression” he’ll be the Cavs for the long-term according to Chris Fedor, Cleveland Plain Dealer.

Two clashing reports, no word from either party for nearly a fortnight.

Then Altman doubles down on his trade intent, says that the Cavs are “definitely looking into [trading for the number one pick]” per Cleveland.com.

As one executive put it in the report: “[It would cost the Cavs] probably the number three pick and an unprotected future first, maybe even one of the young guys (Collin Sexton, Darius Garland, or Isaac Okoro) drafted recently.”

Two days later, another outlet, The Athletic, coming in the image of Jason Lloyd’s report writes that Sexton is “very available” (a change from the previous exploratory conversations) and that his contract situation with one year remaining is hurting his value.

Then it all blew up, those specific words; ‘very’ and ‘available’ must make teams forget the whole ‘bad for winning’ stuff and skip right to the ‘scored 40-plus on Kyrie Irving early in the season’.

The New York Knicks are now making an “aggressive” pursuit of Sexton per Shams Charania, The Athletic.

Additionally, the Miami Heat, New Orleans Pelicans, Indiana Pacers, OKC Thunder, and LA Lakers are among the teams evaluating a Sexton trade via Sam Amico, Hoops Wire.

Collin went from hoping to stay in Cleveland for the long-term to right in the thick of trade rumors before the playoffs even finished. He has one year remaining on his rookie-scale contract, making $6.3 million next season.

Why would the Denver Nuggets want Collin Sexton?

The Denver Nuggets are without Jamal Murray for most, if not all, of next season and Denver will have to find a regular season replacement. The issue with replacing Murray is that the Nuggets are right up against the tax line and have little cap space to add a significant player via free agency.

Turning your head to trade options, with Jamal and Nikola Jokic on their respective max contracts, there aren’t many trades out there to get a difference-maker without including one of those players. Jokic and Murray appear to be untouchable in any trade discussions.

By virtue of the rookie scale contracts, Sexton is an underpaid player, and Denver wouldn’t need to move one of their starters to get a starting-level guard in Collin.

Denver can bring in Collin, slot him into the starting lineup, and see how far it takes them next season.

Also, I’m fully aware that my Cleveland friends just cringed at the sight of that mock trade. Just for your sake, throw in an additional future first-round pick, maybe slap protection on it.

Without worrying about salary matching and assuming Denver won’t want to move on from Michael Porter Jr, Denver will have to go the draft pick route, not players. This hypothetical trade gives Cleveland Monte Morris, a solid point guard with three years remaining on his contract, Bol Bol, a prospect, and two future first-round picks.

After the 2021-22 season, Tim Connelly and the front office would have an interesting situation on their hands with Collin looking for a new contract. Maybe a year as a third option on a contender makes him realize he isn’t a max-level player and wants less. Most likely not.

The main argument for trading for Sexton would be to compete next season, while Jamal rehabs. Is it worth it for the Denver Nuggets to cobble together a last-minute contender in 2021-22?

Why wouldn’t the Denver Nuggets trade for Collin Sexton?

Sexton is nowhere near as good as Murray. He isn’t the shooter that Murray is, he isn’t the passer, he isn’t the defender, and he doesn’t have the same chemistry with the rest of this team.

While the trade argues that Denver is just one piece away from contending, that final piece happens to be rehabbing a torn ACL.

Sexton’s time with Cleveland has been tumultuous. This past season looked like it was going to be a turning point in his career and this post-LeBron Cavs team, but unfortunately, that was a flash in the pan.

While the 2020-21 season was Collin’s best in terms of on-court effect and counting stats, when using Cleaning the Glass’ garbage time filter, he brought the team down one expected win, down 2.3 points per 100 possessions on defense, and only a +1.6 on offense, good for the 65th percentile among guards in the league.

If the Denver Nuggets don’t trade for Sexton, or anyone for that matter, this core team will be competing for a title in the 2022-23 season. That chance at a title is higher and safer than if Denver moves for Sexton or any next season Murray replacement.

It’s an interesting thought exercise about the potential fit-out there of a rookie scale player, instead of some of the bigger names on the trade market.