Denver Nuggets: What does this FA period mean for Aaron Gordon?

The Denver Nuggets have been active in the 2021 free agency period, re-signing key players in Will Barton, JaMychal Green, and Austin Rivers as well as bringing in Jeff Green on the open market.

With these moves and assuming that Paul Millsap, P.J. Dozier, Markus Howard, and Shaq Harrison are brought back on small deals, this is likely the entire roster for the Denver Nuggets next season.

The first thing to notice is that Green’s contract has an early termination worth $8.5 million (Shams Charania, The Athletic reports it as a player option) and it’s unclear whether Barton’s second year is fully guaranteed, partially, or an option of sorts.

While the entire NBA community is likely still processing what just went down in the past few days, figuring out who’s wearing what jersey next season, the details of these free agents matter to Denver because of Aaron Gordon.

Gordon, who was acquired by the Denver Nuggets from the Orlando Magic at last year’s trade deadline for Gary Harris, R.J. Hampton, and a protected 2025 first-round pick, will be an unrestricted free agent this time next season.

There’s a cohort of Nuggets fans who criticized the move following his disappointing play in the Phoenix Suns series, but with assets invested in him and his defensive ability, AG is a necessity moving forwards.

Gordon’s ability to guard on the perimeter, switch on pick-and-roll action, and help take some of the inside pressure off Nikola Jokic is crucial.

Outside of defense, one of the best parts of the AG trade was how didn’t need to carry such a heavy load on offense. Orlando’s offense wasn’t keeping any coaches awake at night and a lot of the time it devolved into your turn, my turn isolation possessions. That’s not what Gordon excels at.

His counting stats took a hit when coming to Colorado, racking up averages of 10.2 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 8.2 shots a night in 25 games with the Nuggets. Despite that, those 25 games saw the Nuggets go on a 19-6 run, including a 9-1 stretch, and even finding success after Jamal Murray went down with a torn ACL.

Gordon gave Denver all the fun, bouncy elements of Kenneth Faried playing with Jokic, but brought a lot of the defensive prowess Jerami Grant did.

Even if you cringed hard after every ugly missed shot against Phoenix, there isn’t much of an alternative. With max contracts in the books for Jokic and Murray as well as one likely in the pipeline for Michael Porter Jr., Tim Connelly doesn’t have much wiggle room to improve this team in free agency.

AG is entering the final season of his four-year, $80 million contract he signed with Orlando. He’s earning $16.4 million in 2021-22 with one million tied up in unlikely bonuses (All Star and All-NBA).

When he becomes a free agent, JaMychal Green’s deal can be removed from the books and Barton will be in the final year of his. If Tim Connelly has to, he could move on from both or one of those deals and prioritize re-signing Gordon.

Denver Nuggets: What will Aaron Gordon’s next contract look like?

Before wondering how Connelly will finagle the space, what will the asking price be for the athletic forward?

Gordon will be 26-years-old next offseason and his production will likely see an increase with Murray sidelined for most, if not all, of next season. He’ll be the one with the leverage in the situation, knowing that the Nuggets need him defensively more than he needs them.

Or will he?

Denver walked into the 2020 offseason with a set number for Jerami Grant. He ended up spurning the Nuggets and signing with the Detroit Pistons, expanding his game in a bigger role elsewhere.

It was a blow for Denver but half a season later, he was replaced by Aaron Gordon. While it worked this time, hoping an equally talented forward is on the trade market (and Denver has the best offer) is a stressful position to be in.

Connelly told reporters in his postseason press conference that there are no financial constraints when building this team, alluding to the luxury tax that Denver hasn’t paid in Kroenke’s entire tenure:

"“We have no financial restraints in terms of trying to further develop a championship-level roster.”"

If that’s the case, Denver can have its cake and eat it too next offseason.

This offseason, with Jamal’s injury, we probably won’t see Denver dip into the luxury tax. But next season, we’ll know almost right away if the team is still tax-averse. If AG gets given a similar contract to the one he’s on now, maybe even in the Jerami range of three-years, $60 million or more, we’ll know the team is content paying the tax.

If the Nuggets try and find a cheaper alternative, the on-court product will probably decline and we’ll all have to cross out fingers there’s another athletic, defensive forward out there by the trade deadline.

Denver’s 2021 offseason moves have set the table for welcoming Aaron Gordon back in next year’s free agency, it’s now up to the player, the decision-makers, and the owners to get it done.