The Denver Nuggets entered this offseason with the goal of re-signing key free agents and bringing in some help for the injured Jamal Murray.
After the first couple of days, the Nuggets are almost at the player limit and with limited financial flexibility, the roster we’re looking at now should be the one entering the 2021-22 season. There were no splashy moves or trades, is that enough to replace the in-season production that Jamal Murray brings?
While it’s impossible to replace a max-level star in free agency without a high enough draft pick or enough cap space to throw at the best free agents, have the Denver Nuggets done enough?
Denver Nuggets: Firstly, how did they replace Jamal Murray’s production?
The first move the Nuggets made was draft combo guard, Nah’Shon ‘Bones’ Hyland with the 26th pick in the 2021 NBA Draft. Hyland is a crafty guard who comes out of VCU with a scoring acumen that should translate directly into the league.
As NuggLove contributor Andrew Phipps describes Bones’ game:
"“He possesses palpable confidence and swagger on the court, he has a chance to be a high-level scorer in this league. He is a very reliable shooter off the bounce and seems to be even better when given the opportunity to catch and shoot.”"
The best part about adding new players to this Denver Nuggets team is that they get to play next to Nikola Jokic. Not only might Jokic be the greatest passer in NBA history (I’ll keep typing it as I keep watching it), but he makes life so much easier for those around him. I have no doubt that Bones will thrive working alongside Nikola as an off-ball shooter and cutter.
Will Barton was happy with the pick, taking to Twitter to congratulate his friend and new teammate:
Let’s get it lil bro you made it to the show! This ya moment! They don’t know we been locked in since you was in high school!
— Will Barton (@WillTheThrillB5) July 30, 2021
And that’s the next move the Denver Nuggets made to replace Jamal Murray’s production, bring back Will Barton on a two-year deal. All signs pointed to Barton re-signing after he declined his player option, but it’s nice to know that the deal is done and Will the Thrill is staying in Colorado.
We don’t know the particulars of the contract yet, whether there’s a non-guarantee or option in the second year, but Barton will be an option for Michael Malone on the wings.
The final move Tim Connelly made was re-signing Austin Rivers on a one-year, likely minimum contract.
Denver Nuggets: Can this rotation make up for Jamal Murray while he recovers?
On top of retaining free agents and drafting Hyland, the Nuggets’ guard rotation still features Facundo Campazzo, Monte Morris, and P.J. Dozier (pending his free agency). There are a lot of cooks in this kitchen, none at Jamal’s level, but is it enough?
The goal for the Denver Nuggets in this upcoming season should be to aim for a top-four seed in the Western Conference. Can Denver get away with that with a starting backcourt of Will Barton and Monte Morris?
Short answer: yes.
Denver’s most successful lineup this past season featured Morris, Murray, Barton, Michael Porter Jr., and Jokic per Cleaning the Glass. The second-most effective had Rivers, Campazzo, Aaron Gordon, MPJ, and Jokic, scoring +17.1 points more than its opponents over 100 possessions.
Since Jamal went down, the Nuggets went on a 16-8 run to finish the season, and Jokic solidified his position as the league’s Most Valuable Player. The team faltered in the second round of the playoffs when a superior Phoenix Suns team blew them out of the water.
But the strong finish to the season and the fact that a non-Jamal team could beat the Portland Trail Blazers team shows that Nikola Jokic is a regular season winning machine.
Yes, Denver was able to bring back Barton and Bones projects to be a solid contributor at the guard positions, but Denver wins games by surrounding Jokic with competence.
The Nuggets will struggle against some of the league’s elite, losing Jamal means there isn’t a perimeter guy who can pierce through the D and open up shots for the other guys, but not every team is elite.
Denver will easily outclass the lesser teams in the league and, barring injury, will waltz into a winning record.
This is even before mentioning the absolute molten hot shooting we saw from MPJ after the Jamal injury as well. If Porter Jr. happens to be a 20-plus point per game scorer for the start of next season, the Nuggets will be in fine shape.
Michael Porter Jr averaged 22.8 points a night while hitting 55 percent from the floor, 45 percent from 3-point range, and 86 percent from the free throw line after Murray went down. He took the reigns as the second option behind Nikola Jokic and excelled.
In that same time frame, with only a 20 percent usage, MPJ scored 141.8 points per 100 shot attempts, one of the best marks in the league according to Cleaning the Glass. He was making 59 percent of threes from the corner and 82 percent of his shots at the rim – whatever Michael wanted, Michael got.
It’s a bit much to expect that kind of shooting for the entire season, but it’s promising that he was able to succeed so much since Jamal went down.
Denver Nuggets: Jamal Murray’s production is made up elsewhere
A cohort of Nuggets fans were down on this offseason, looking at it as treading water, not bringing in a solid replacement for Murray, someone who can take his portion of the offense until he’s back healthy.
But that would go against everything we’ve learnt from the Tim Connelly era of basketball. Connelly and this Nuggets team has prioritized development and internal improvement at every stage, hoping to build slowly and not skip any steps.
There’s no reason rush into free agency, try and get another Jamal when it’s near-impossible. Connelly even hinted at this himself in his postseason press conference:
"“You’re always trying to get better. We have a handful of free agents that we’re hopeful we can retain. We won’t have real certainty of what our roster will look like until post-draft. We really enjoyed this group and the more guys we can keep, the better.”"
Denver will be fine, they have an MVP in Jokic, a young scorer in MPJ, and plenty of shooting around the tandem to have an elite offense.
It won’t be long until this article changes its angle from ‘how to replace Jamal’ to ‘how to re-integrate Jamal’.