The offseason is nearly finished for the Denver Nuggets and the team pretty much kept the team together, barring a few changes. That stability should give us an insight into what we can expect for next season, more importantly, what to expect in the next fantasy basketball season.
The injury to Jamal Murray throws a spanner in the works, both for the team’s title hopes, and their fantasy projections. But unlike the team on the court, there might be some real value adds on the Denver Nuggets as multiple players look to pick up some of Jamal’s production.
For the purposes of this article, I’ll be viewing players through the lens of head-to-head categories. What categories do you ask? Well, I’ll try and keep it as broad as possible so it helps across the board.
Denver Nuggets Fantasy Basketball rankings: Nikola Jokic should go number one
This has been the case for a long time, but the 2020-21 NBA MVP, Nikola Jokic, should be going near the top of everyone’s fantasy draft.
Not only does he rack up stats across every category while shooting extremely efficient, he’s as durable as they come and has played in nearly every game for his entire career. Through six seasons, Jokic has played in 453 of a possible 473 games – that’s the kind of consistency you want from your first-round pick.
If you compare him with some of the other players atop the fantasy rankings, he’s the only one without some form of injury concern. Plus, he doesn’t rest often, so you’re not missing crucial games down the end of the season when you really need to squeeze out some wins.
This past season, Jokic averaged 26.4 points a night alongside 10.8 rebounds, 8.3 assists, and 1.3 steals while shooting 56 percent from the floor, 39 percent from 3-point range, and 87 percent from the free throw line.
This isn’t really even a discussion anymore, I’m just listing his stats because I love to read them.
Denver Nuggets Fantasy Basketball rankings: Monte Morris should rise
The first major beneficiary from Jamal’s injury will be Monte Morris. Whether he’s starting on opening night or not, Morris will be the main perimeter ball-handler for the Denver Nuggets and likely closing point guard.
He has always excelled in his limited bench minutes, clearly a favorite of head coach Michael Malone as he trusts him to finish games or even handle the ball in crunch time situations.
Morris is currently ranked 182nd in ESPN‘s early fantasy basketball rankings but it seems extremely low given how much Denver will be relying on him. Do these rankings assume he’ll be playing a similar role in similar minutes? If so, they’re wrong.
With these buy-low players to keep an eye on, make sure you’re not drafting Morris too early. Yes, he might give you the value of a sixth-round pick, but that doesn’t mean he should be drafted in that round, if you can try your luck at getting him in the eighth, ninth, or tenth rounds, that’s where the value is.
Denver Nuggets Fantasy Basketball rankings: Michael Porter Jr. as the second option on a playoff team
I’ve written about this ad nauseam, but we can learn a lot from Michael Porter Jr.‘s hot finish to the 2020-21 season. If he’s going to step up and take the reigns as a second option behind Nikola Jokic for an entire season, he’ll be an incredibly efficient scorer.
Some might look at the Jamal injury and think the Denver Nuggets should replace his production with a guard. Since Tim Connelly and the team didn’t go out and add new guards (outside of drafting Bones Hyland, I’m cautious to say a rookie will fill the hole), Murray’s scoring punch will have to come from elsewhere.
The first place is probably the option behind Murray before he went down – to MPJ.
Similar to how Monte Morris is getting a jump in draft rankings, MPJ should be even higher.
Since the Murray injury in April, MPJ averaged 22.8 points a night while hitting 55 percent from the floor, 45 percent from 3-point range, and 86 percent from the free throw line. He took the reigns as the second option behind Jokic and excelled.
In that same time frame, with only a 20 percent usage, MPJ scored 141.8 points per 100 shot attempts, one of the best marks in the league according to Cleaning the Glass. He was making 59 percent of threes from the corner and 82 percent of his shots at the rim – whatever Michael wanted, Michael got.
MPJ will almost definitely fall down a few rounds in fantasy basketball drafts, but whoever picks him up could be getting an elite scorer on a playoff team for the price of a role player.
Denver Nuggets Fantasy Basketball rankings: Don’t draft Jamal Murray
If Jamal Murray simply returns a calendar year after his injury, it’ll naturally be later in the season, and assuming Denver is in the playoff race again, it would be a big ask to get Jamal back to playoff shape, let alone regular season shape, when his knee heals.
It might be too big of an ask to bring Jamal back right before the playoffs, so maybe the Denver Nuggets will err on the side of caution and keep him out for the entire season, prioritizing the 2022-23 season.
In terms of fantasy basketball, Jamal should be on the waiver wire for the entire season and can probably be brought into an injury slot if one happens to open up for your team late in the season. Don’t spend a draft pick on Jamal, even if it’s the final round. He will be available for free later on.