Will the Denver Nuggets play fast this season?

This upcoming season for the Denver Nuggets will be different to past years with Jamal Murray sitting out with his torn ACL. There will be a range of different options taking on the lead guard role, will the Nuggets be playing at a faster pace? And if so, should they be?

In the 2020-21 season, the Denver Nuggets were the fourth-slowest team when using Basketball-Reference’s Pace Factor stat. Denver spent just under 80 percent of their offensive possessions in a halfcourt setting, the eighth-most mark in the league and were 14th in transition frequency per Cleaning the Glass.

And when the Nuggets got into their offensive sets, they took their time with an average of 15.1 seconds per offensive possession according to Dunks and Threes. Denver was only slower than New York, Dallas, and Cleveland.

Those figures pass the eye test and fit Denver’s personnel. With Nikola Jokic anchoring the offense, starting plays at the top of the 3-point line or out of the post, it’s in the Nuggets’ best interest to slow things down.

The offense worked well as it is, Denver scored the fifth most points per 100 possessions in 2020-21 and they had the sixth-best point differential in the league using Cleaning the Glass’ metrics.

Despite making strides on the defensive end in recent seasons, this roster has always been an offense-first team and it has worked wonders for the Nuggets, finishing with at least a top-four finish in the past three seasons.

But with a major cog in that successful machine out for most, if not all, of the 2021-22 season, will the Denver Nuggets make alterations to the way they get their baskets or keep things as they are with different players?

Denver Nuggets: What will the team look like without Jamal Murray?

We got a small glimpse into a world without Jamal Murray at the end of the 2020-21 season. Michael Porter Jr. shot the lights out, Facundo Campazzo started at point guard, and Nikola Jokic solidified his Most Valuable Player case.

Following that unfortunate day on 12 Apr. 2021, the Nuggets went 13-5 and held on to a respectable eighth-best offensive rating in that sample size. Porter Jr. stepped up as a second scoring option behind Jokic and Denver cruised past the first round in the NBA playoffs.

A loss in the second round at the hands of the Phoenix Suns hurt but while not at full strength, it’s completely understandable.

Their diet of shots didn’t change considerably either. Denver didn’t spend much more time in transition or in the halfcourt, it was all relatively the same without Murray.

But that’s also at the end of the season, a shortened season at that, where coaches didn’t have much time to change or adapt schemes. If Michael Malone did want to change something up without his elite guard in Murray, it’d be instituted this season with a full training camp to prepare.

Monte Morris is likely going to take over as the full-time starting point guard and his steady, pass-first mentality could open up more opportunities for the rest of the team next season.

When Monte was on the court this past season, the team took 1.5 percent more shots in transition, an extremely high number for guards per Cleaning the Glass. When Denver did get out and run with Monte, the team scored nearly two points more per 100 possessions, a top tier mark.

It’s a stark difference to Facundo Campazzo, the default starting point guard following Jamal’s injury, who wasn’t as good at getting out in transition, scoring less in those opportunities and not sparking any runs. That’s not a knock on Facu as a guard, his bread and butter is just in the halfcourt.

Another element of the fastbreak Morris did excel at was scoring off of live rebounds. He fills the Gary Harris role perfectly when leaking out and looking for easy buckets off a Nikola Jokic full-court pass. Monte scored 1.3 more points per 100 live rebound transition buckets, worlds better than Jamal’s -0.3 this past season.

Jokic is still healthy and still a lethal touchdown passer, so with Monte at the lead guard role for most of the game, we could be seeing more leak out opportunities. Pair that with another quick guard in Bones Hyland as well as Will Barton who could find his own leak out opportunities, the Denver Nuggets might have a secret weapon.

Something the New Orleans Pelicans did so much of in 2020-21 was encouraging Zion Williamson to leak out after a rebound (or sometimes even made basket). Even if it didn’t lead to a made basket immediately, it forced whoever was guarding the fastbreak to pick up Zion, creating mismatches.

No, Morris and Barton aren’t going to dominate their matchup physically, but if they can force a very early switch before the offense gets set, Denver could start plenty of possessions with a matchup, not needing to call a play or hunt mismatches in pick-and-rolls.

If a guard can pull a big man away from the paint, there’s probably a smaller player guarding Jokic. A nightmare for opposing teams.

Should the Denver Nuggets push the pace next season?

Think about why teams push the pace. They do it if they have players that excel in the open court, they do it to get more offensive possessions, and they do it if it’s a weakness of the defense.

The Denver Nuggets don’t have bad offensive talent and they’ve proven they can be one of the deadliest offensive teams while still being one of the slowest. It’s one of the luxuries of having a player like Jokic on the roster – he is an offensive hub all to himself.

With Monte Morris starting at the lead guard spot, there may be a few more touchdown passes, but there’s no reason for Malone to ask this team to push the pace.

If Jokic isn’t in the offensive possession, it’s probably not the best option.

When Nikola is on the bench, it’s much more interesting. The backup center options are JaMychal Green, Jeff Green, Zeke Nnaji, and Bol Bol, all of whom are faster than their counterparts bar Bol. There’s the possibility the second unit focuses on running up and down the court, but overall, the Denver Nuggets are better when slowing the game down and outclassing opponents.