With the Denver Nuggets playing meaningful hoop starting on Wednesday, we thought it would be a good time to take a look at what the bookies and sportsbooks think the Nuggets can do this year.
Last season league MVP Nikola Jokic led the squad to 47 wins in just 72 games. Now, with the schedule back to a normal 82, the line on Denver’s total wins for this upcoming campaign sits at 48.5.
So, what do we think? Over, or under? One thing’s for sure: those bookies know what they’re doing when they set these win totals. I went through the Nuggets schedule with several different scenarios and they all had the Rocky boys winning between 46 and 50 games.
However, I do think they will just get over the top, maybe even on the final day of play so get ready to sweat and shed a few hairs over this wager. We advise taking the OVER on Denver’s 48.5 season win total as we expect them to go 50-32, but, oh boy, is it going to be close.
With Jamal Murray missing for god knows how long—he said recently that he’s got a long ways to go and president of basketball operations Tim Connelly doesn’t have a timetable yet—it will be tough, but I believe the Nuggets have the platoon to make up for the Blue Arrow’s extended absence.
What the Nuggets will need is Monte Morris in the starting lineup, Facundo Campazzo pestering in more limited but even more energetic bench minutes, Austin Rivers and Jeff Green sliding into their new roles comfortably, Gordon and MPJ living up to their contracts, Bones Hyland playing significant rookie minutes, and perhaps a late-season addition on the buyout market.
And, of course, a repeat performance from Jokic is not a hope but almost a necessity this season. If Murray can come back at 100 percent at some point before the playoffs, the Nuggets could even exceed our predictions. Let’s dive in and see how the Nuggets should fare by their month-to-month schedule.
Denver Nuggets win prediction Oct-Nov: 12-8
The Denver Nuggets will take on the Phoenix Suns in Arizona on opening day in what promises to be a chippy affair (hopefully the Joker’s brothers will be there again), but after that, their October slate is pretty soft.
The Nuggets can easily get off to a 4-2 or 5-1 start in October if they can win one or two of their three games at Phoenix, at Utah Jazz, and hosting the Dallas Mavericks. I think Dallas-Denver games will be appointment viewing this season as well.
November gets a little tougher, but the Nuggets have always been a great home team under Michael Malone, so a five-game homestand early in the month should help them make the most of this section of their schedule.
If they don’t, they could be in a deep hole early this season, because they finish off the penultimate month vs. Miami Heat, vs. Indiana Pacers, vs. Atlanta Hawks, vs. Portland Trail Blazers, at Dallas, vs. Philadelphia 76ers, vs. Chicago Bulls, at Phoenix, at Portland, vs. Milwaukee Bucks, and at Miami. Yikes.
That is about as tough a stretch of schedule as you’ll find in the NBA, so if the Nuggets can win about half of those and find success in Memphis to start the month, they could come away with a record like 8-6 or 7-7 in November.
Denver Nuggets win prediction Dec: 9-6
If November was tough because of the opponents, the Nuggets schedule in December will definitely test the will and determination of this team. This could be the month that makes or breaks this season for Denver: they play 11 of their 15 games on the road to close out the year 2021.
Malone will hope to keep the momentum they had away from the Rockies last season when they went 22-14 on the road—they were just 55-63 away from Ball Arena over the three campaigns before that.
Thankfully, the roadie brings them to places like San Antonio, New Orleans, and Orlando where they should be able to get easy wins. If they can snag a W in Chicago or New York that would be an extra little treat on a gruelling six-game road trip to open the month.
Coming back home to dates with the Washington Wizards and Minnesota Timberwolves means that they could very well start the month 6-2 or 7-1 despite playing just a pair at home.
Tough trips to Brooklyn and Atlanta follow and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Joker and friends drop both. They should bounce back in Oklahoma City before another tricky game the day after back home against the sprightly Hornets.
They get New Year’s Eve off to par-tay, and I think they’ll have something to celebrate. They finish 2021 off with a three-game California voyage where they should be able to beat the Kawhi Leonard-less Los Angeles Clippers and at least split a home-and-away series with the likely Klay-less Golden State Warriors.
Denver Nuggets win prediction Jan-Feb: 15-12
January, along with November and March, sees the Nuggets and the reigning MVP play five times on national television, two of which are on NBATV, so thank god for the resolution of that pesky TV deal.
The Nuggets should start out 2022 with a win in Houston on New Year’s Day, but I think they drop their next two at Dallas and vs. Utah after that. They should grab a couple of wins after that before heading back to see the Clippers, who I think the Nuggets beat again.
Riding a three-gamer into a six-game homestand at Ball Arena is a pretty good position to be midway through January. The first four games are no picnic, however, with the Blazers, Los Angeles Lakers, Jazz, and Clippers (all of which are on national TV except the Utah game) all paying them a visit in the span of a week.
If the Nuggets can get a split there and then hold the fort against the Grizzlies and Pistons to finish the stand 4-2, that would be a lovely result, but I believe they could drop one to Memphis. The Nuggets should be able to scrape together a 9-6 January record with wins at Detroit and New Orleans before falling to the defending champs to cap off the month.
Denver will start February 3-0 as they finally get the best of the Jazz, but they could lose their next four straight after that vs. Nets, vs. New York, at Boston, and at Toronto. In fact, they could very well fall to the Magic in a trap game after that before a loss to the Klay-infused Warriors.
Heading into the All-Star break on a six-game skid should push management to seek reinforcements, and the progress of Murray’s recovery will be key to what moves are made as well. They should be able to sweep the Kings in a home-and-away following the break, and I think they’ll win in Portland to finish the month 6-6.
Denver Nuggets win prediction Mar-Apr: 14-6
I honestly think March is the month where we see Murray worked back into the team, and by the time April comes around, I really believe he’ll be back to the weapon he was pre-injury. And he will need to be, because the Nuggets are going to be making a mad dash down the stretch.
This should also be around the time that the Nuggets could add a piece, and hopefully, Bones will have progressed nicely into a significant rotation piece by this point as well.
With a start to the month that includes a homestand against the Thunder, Pelicans, and Rockets followed by a trip to Sacramento, the Nuggets should start March off 4-0 no problem. After that, we like them to get retribution against the Dubs and Raps at home in Denver after losses to the pair on the road before the ASG.
That 10 Mar. matchup with the Warriors will be on TNT and could be the game to watch for the Nuggets this season: we could very well see these two Western Conference contenders playing at full strength with both Klay and Murray in the lineups for the first time in several years.
That six-game winning vibe will be huge to lift the Nuggets out of the play-in crowd, which they will have fallen into after that rough stretch heading into the ASB. A loss in the City of Brotherly Love and a hiccup in the capital against the Wizards could follow, however.
They will bounce back in Cleveland with a win before a tough three-game stretch against the Celtics, Clippers, and Suns during which I expect them to drop two of three at home. After that, they should beat the Thunder in Denver and win one of two away games against the Hornets and Pacers to finish the month a strong 10-5.
No jokes will be made on 1 Apr. as they take care of business against the Timberwolves at home. The Nuggets will then likely lose at Staples to the Lakers before finishing with a three-game homestand where I expect them to beat the Spurs, Grizzlies, and Lakers to go a lovely 4-1 in April and head into the postseason on fire.