Denver Nuggets: How will Michael Porter Jr. look on return?

The Denver Nuggets are without Michael Porter Jr. who had back surgery early in the 2021-22 NBA season. Back injuries are weird and they are very hard to predict their severity or length of absence.

Porter Jr. recently returned to the court, shooting warm-ups alongside his teammates before games and looking natural while doing it, not limited in any capacity. He is, of course, limited but the early progress is promising and it asks the question: can we expect to see Michael Porter Jr. back on the court this season?

MPJ was officially listed as out indefinitely after undergoing lumbar spine surgery and rumors of an injury were flying around the Nuggets camp after an extremely slow start for the former Missouri forward.

The Nuggets recently applied for, and successfully got, a disabled player exception (DPE) according to Shams Charania, The Athletic. This exception, which is only given if the player is definitely out for the entire season, gives teams a portion of the injured player’s salary back to improve the roster in-season.

After signing a max contract this past offseason, MPJ will be paid just under $29.8 million next season. The Nuggets are going to need more than question marks and sore backs if this team is to compete for a title.

Based on the history of back injuries, what can the Denver Nuggets expect when Michael Porter Jr. returns to the court?

Denver Nuggets: A short history of Michael Porter Jr.’s back

There was once a time when MPJ was considered the number one draft prospect in the 2018 NBA Draft, above players like Luka Doncic, Trae Young, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander among others.

He slid out of the top of the draft after a back injury limited his time at Missouri to two games. As Jonathan Givony, ESPN wrote before the draft:

"“Concerns about the long-term outlook of Porter’s health following back and hip issues have him potentially sliding out of the top ten, according to sources.“Porter came into the season with hopes of making a run at being the number one pick in the draft.”"

That surgery was an L3-L4 microdiscectomy that treated herniated disks in his back and it was followed up by another not long after.

MPJ missed his entire rookie season after being drafted by the Denver Nuggets. He was in a unique situation because Denver, who had only just snuck into the lottery after sharply missing the playoffs, didn’t desperately need a rookie coming in immediately.

Fast-forward two seasons, Michael Porter Jr. had played 55 and 61 games in his first two seasons in the NBA and it looked like his back concerns were in the past. He and the team had done the right thing, played the slow game, and his back was back to full strength.

In the playoffs of his third season, in Game 1 of the second-round series against the Phoenix Suns, MPJ “tweaked” his back according to Michael Malone’s postgame availability:

"“Michael [Porter Jr.] was out there trying to give us everything he could.“I just was concerned with the way he was moving out there, didn’t look right on either end of the floor — trying to run him off screens, trying to get him open knowing that we need his scoring punch.”"

Chris Paul, being the player he is (this is a compliment), saw a weakness in the Nuggets’ defense and decided to attack MPJ every time down the floor. Porter is a poor defender at the best of times but with his mobility limited, he was a weak link CP3 could target each time down the court.

At the time, it was a massive shame that his back flared up again and was getting in the way of the playoffs. The injury didn’t disappear in the offseason and lingered long enough for him to trigger something in an uncontested layup against the Houston Rockets.

And here we are today.

Denver Nuggets: What can we expect from Michael Porter Jr.?

When you hear about back injuries and surgeries in the NBA, you think of the worst-case scenarios: Larry Bird, Steve Nash, and Yao Ming. I even remember a quote from Steve Kerr, who has had his own back issues, that surgery is an absolute worst-case scenario:

"“I can tell you if you’re listening out there, stay away from back surgery. I can say that from the bottom of my heart. Rehab, rehab, rehab. Don’t let anyone get in there.”"

Well, MPJ didn’t stay away from surgery, in fact, this most recent one is his third back surgery.

But before the slow start to this season, MPJ spent two full seasons at full strength, growing and proving enough to warrant a max extension. Some people criticized the move, saying it was too much of a risk, but nobody could argue with Porter’s output when he was on the court.

In 17 games without Jamal Murray, MPJ averaged 23.5 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 1.5 assists while shooting 56 percent from the floor and 49 percent from the 3-point line. He took the reigns as the scoring option behind Nikola Jokic and excelled.

Entering this season, many thought the wing would flourish with with a full season as the second option to score.

Speaking with Dan Devine, The Ringer, Markus Howard said that Porter Jr. wasn’t even fully healthy yet, warning the NBA world that there was more to come:

"“The scary thing is: He’s not even 100 percent. That’s the thing that blows my mind. He was playing last year and had a historic season, and he was a shell of what he really is.”"

The article adds that Howard spent most of last season crashing in MPJ’s spare bedroom so he was fully aware of his health off the court. The article stipulates that MPJ was healthy enough to play, but that doesn’t always mean fully healthy.

He was able to play as well as he did without being fully healthy.

Unlike the back injury horror stories, MPJ is still only 23-years-old, much younger than the players who had a career-ending back injury. Yes, the third back surgery is concerning but we saw MPJ come back at a level that wasn’t full strength and play at a near All-Star level.

You have to trust that this surgery was a final option and that the Nuggets had to choice. The last time he had a major back surgery, he rehabbed, took a season off, and came back to be the player he was. That took a redshirt and a calendar year. A calendar year now would place him returning early in the 2022 season.

But we have to remember, that redshirt season was extra precautionary. Teams didn’t want to touch him in the NBA draft because they thought he wouldn’t play in the league. Now, he’s a consistent player when he’s on the court and this surgery is to fix another issue that has developed.

An optimist would say that this is it – this is the final surgery he needs. A pessimist would ask if this is the last time his injured back will get in the way?

Either way, after applying for the DPE, Michael Porter Jr. will miss the remainder of this season. Yes, he may be healthy and shooting in warm-ups, but the last time he had a similar surgery, the Nuggets rested him for an entire season.

There’s nothing to be gained out of playing him this season, one without Jamal Murray for likely the rest of the year. If he’s healthy enough to return this season, then maybe the team should consider bringing him back into the roster.

The past is the best predictor for the future and the Nuggets were extremely patient with MPJ the first time, so my bet would be that they’re operating with an abundance of caution this time. Michael Porter Jr. will miss the entire 2021-22 season but should be at full strength for the 2022-23 season.

Note: This article has been edited to include the news of a DPE. The article was written before the exception was granted and while it didn’t include the fact that the DPE will sideline him for the remainder of the season, it predicted that he wouldn’t play another game in the 2021-22 season.