We’ve officially passed the All-Star Break for the 2022 NBA season, the unofficial halfway point in the season. Nikola Jokic was selected to the All-Star game for his fourth-straight season, joining a select group of Denver Nuggets‘ players to accomplish this feat.
But for fans and media, the All-Star Break also signifies the true beginning of the MVP race. This past year, the MVP conversation came down to the two best centers in the NBA, and the same race looks to continue again this year.
In ESPN‘s latest MVP mock poll, Joel Embiid led the poll with 789 total points, including 45 first-place votes. Jokic followed closely behind with 754 total points and 43 first-place votes, but was shockingly left off of five voter’s ballots altogether.
Will these two big men continue to dominate the MVP conversation? Or will newcomers like Giannis Antetokounmpo or DeMar DeRozan make a late push for the award?
Before taking a deep dive into who truly deserves MVP, let’s compare stats for the two big men in the MVP discussion:
Nikola Jokic has played 52 games, he averages 26 points, 13.8 rebounds, 7.9 assists, and 5.6 free-throw attempts a night while putting up a 116.8 offensive rating, 106.7 defensive rating, and 7.1 plus-minus with 30.5 percent usage. His Denver Nuggets hold a 33-25 record, good for sixth in the Western Conference.
Joel Embiid has played 46 games and averages 29.6 points, 11.2 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and 11.3 free-throw attempts per game with a 114.1 offensive rating, 107.1 defensive rating, and 4.7 plus/minus. He has a 37.7 percent usage rating while his Philadelphia 76ers hold a 35-23 record, third in the Eastern Conference.
The raw numbers paint a strong picture for Jokic’s case for MVP. The Big Honey has improved from his 2020 MVP season and has been truly dominant this season.
Like Jokic, Joel Embiid has been the anchor for his team. Embiid holds a higher usage rating than Jokic, and the numbers show that Embiid has been a dominant force as a scorer this year. While Embiid isn’t the “offensive system” that Nikola Jokic is, Embiid has certainly been the driving force behind the 76ers success this season.
Embiid’s dominance as a scorer has caught the eyes of MVP voters and media members all season.
However, I believe Jokic’s numbers back up his case as the best player in the NBA, one who contributes to winning in numerous ways and elevates the floor of his teammates. Jokic’s dominance doesn’t stand out like an Embiid poster-dunk, but I would argue Jokic has contributed to overall team success more than Embiid.
Denver Nuggets: Which MVP candidate has had more help?
While basketball is most certainly a team sport, both big men in the MVP race have helped carry their teams to their respective positions. But which player has had more help this season?
With 25 games played and 460 minutes this season, the lineup consisting of Monte Morris, Will Barton, Aaron Gordon, and Jeff Green along with Jokic is the most consistent starting lineup for the Denver Nuggets this season.
For the Philadelphia 76ers, their starting lineup consisted of Tyrese Maxey, Seth Curry, Matisse Thybulle, and Tobias Harris along with Embiid. This unit has played 21 games together, and 256 minutes total.
On the surface, the two groups look comparable in their collection of talent. For Denver, Monte Morris and Aaron Gordon have been their two best players outside of Jokic, with Barton falling slightly behind the two. Jeff Green has been a solid player who knows how to play alongside Jokic, but often looks his age on the court at 35 years old.
For the Sixers, Tyrese Maxey has been an excellent surprise, showing that he can be a long-term piece as a scorer and facilitator. Thybulle continues to be a shut-down perimeter defender while providing mixed results on the offensive end of the floor, and Seth Curry was finding his rhythm from beyond the arc before being traded in a blockbuster deal at the trade deadline.
However, both teams have been sorely missing their secondary stars. A healthy Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. would instantly vault the Nuggets into contention for the Western Conference. For the Sixers, the Ben Simmons saga came to end at this year’s trade deadline, and ultimately hampered the team for the first part of the season.
We can assume that both Jokic and Embiid will be getting their running mates back sometime this season, but who has had to carry the load more for the first part of the year?
While Embiid has been a one-man show as a scorer for the Sixers, I would argue that Nikola Jokic has carried his team more than Embiid. Jokic leads the NBA in triple-doubles this season with 15, four more than the next highest rank.
Included in his impressive resume of games this season is a monster 49-14-10 game earlier this season against the Los Angeles Clippers, arguably one of the best games of the season.
Additionally, the 76ers have managed to win four of twelve games without Joel Embiid in the lineup, as opposed to Denver’s one of six games without Jokic. Both teams have struggled mightily without their MVP candidates, but the Nuggets have simply looked hapless without the help of Jokic.
The argument could be made for the Sixers having the lesser supporting cast, but along with the eye test, the numbers show that the Nuggets have relied on Jokic’s talents more this season.
Denver Nuggets: Who deserves the award more?
Even after putting up jaw-dropping numbers with a less-than-ideal supporting cast, it feels like Jokic is in the backseat behind Joel Embiid in the race for the MVP this season. But why?
Simply put, Joel Embiid’s game is flashier than Jokic’s. The argument for Embiid’s MVP candidacy is simple, look at the points he’s scored and some of the monster scoring games he’s put up this season. Embiid’s dominance has been compared to Shaquille O’Neal, who won the MVP award in the 1999-2000 NBA season.
While Embiid is dominating as a scorer, Nikola Jokic is single-handedly keeping his team afloat. Embiid’s usage percentage is higher than Jokic’s, but Denver’s offense truly runs through The Joker. Very few scoring possessions come without Nikola handling the ball while he’s on the court for Denver.
Nikola Jokic’s all-around game contributes to winning more than Embiid’s scoring output, but both players’ games are worthy of MVP candidacy. While I believe that Nikola Jokic should join the select group of back-to-back MVP winners, it feels likely that Joel Embiid will run away with the award.
While Jokic will be getting his second and third-best players back in Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr., the move for James Harden will transform Philadelphia from fringe contender to potential title favorites in the East. The two-man game between Harden and Embiid should lead to even more explosive scoring nights for the Sixers’ big man, and the national attention should be on Philadelphia for the rest of the season.
Unfortunately for Nuggets Nation, barring a catastrophic collapse from the Sixers, I think Jokic will come up just short in this year’s MVP race.