Denver Nuggets: Heavy bonuses make a Duncan Robinson trade realistic

Just 12 months ago, I wrote about a potential Duncan Robinson fit with the Denver Nuggets. He eventually re-signed with the Miami Heat on a five-year, $90 million deal but after falling out of the playoff rotation, is he a viable target again?

That $90 million price tag might seem like a lot for a shooter who couldn’t defend well enough to stick in the playoff rotation but recent reporting from Ira Winderman, South Florida Sun-Sentinel found that there are several metrics and marks Robinson needs to hit if he’s to be owed that full title.

One of the bonuses in Duncan’s contract is worth $10 million and it only triggers if his team wins an NBA championship. While the Heat got close this season, saving that much on his team makes it much more tolerable, especially for other teams looking for shooting.

At the 2022 trade deadline, the Nuggets clearly needed shooters with the absence of Michael Porter Jr. and Jamal Murray. While the answer this season was the cheap pickup of Bryn Forbes, new GM Calvin Booth might want to aim a little higher in his first offseason.

The Denver Nuggets could swap Will Barton for Robinson and run out a lineup of Jamal, Robinson, MPJ, Aaron Gordon, and Nikola Jokic. The trade doesn’t help Denver’s perimeter defense issues but it might end up being one of the best offensive lineups in the NBA.

This past season, Duncan shot 37 percent on his 7.9 3-point attempts and averaged just over ten points a night. Considering he’s one of the worst defenders in the league, that’s not great value for his contract so this deal would be a buy-low on the 28-year-old shooter.

In 2021-22, Duncan Robinson took 85 percent of his shots from behind the arc and he was assisted on 96 percent of them. His role is extremely well-defined and at 6’8″, he’d slide right into the Forbes role for this team.

Jokic is one of the best passing big men of all time and it’d be exciting to see the number of open looks the two-time MVP could find Duncan. At the moment, Forbes does a fine job at getting open and stretching the defense but as a taller, faster and deeper shooter, Robinson could warp the defense in ways Denver hasn’t seen before.

Barton is the longest-tenured Nugget on this roster (and all-time leader in 3-point field goals made for the Denver Nuggets) but as this team has grown, his role has shrunk, and with the emergence of Bones Hyland as a bench scorer, who knows what role he’ll have on this team next season.

Michael Malone would at least have a better offensive fit in the starting lineup and the ability to go offense-defense with Jeff Green or whoever else the Nuggets bring in this offseason.

Why would the Miami Heat trade Duncan Robinson to the Denver Nuggets?

The best answer to this question might not be on the basketball court. After losing to the Boston Celtics in Game 7, the Miami Heat need to find a way to improve on their run this season and run it back.

In these playoffs, Robinson played 13 games and averaged 12.2 minutes a night. Max Strus played in all 18 playoff games and averaged 29.1 minutes a night as well as shot the biggest shots down the end of games (outside of one Jimmy Butler pull-up).

Strus is on a non-guaranteed minimum contract next season which is just over $15 million less than Duncan Robinson’s number. That’s incredible.

It’s clear that Erik Spoelstra only trusted one of the shooters to be out there at the one time and Strus won out with the starting and closing minutes. It’s in Pat Riley’s best interest to move on from Robinson since his salary is eating into Miami’s playoff rotation.

That’s not to say Robinson is useless in the regular season, but if this season is all about fine-tuning the playoff roster for another push, there’s no need to have Duncan be the fifth-highest earner on this team.

Will Barton might not be the perfect answer for Riley and the Miami Heat but entering the final year of his contract next season, the money would come right off their books a season later. Or even better yet, they could find a role for him in Miami and want to re-sign him to another deal this time next year.

With Denver’s supreme need for shooting and Miami’s need to get off the Robinson contract, a straight swap between the two might be the best way to solve two problems at once.

Or, it could result in more problems for the Nuggets than it’s worth, if Denver makes the Conference Finals, they might end up benching Robinson themselves and run into the same problem this time next year. Is it worth the risk?