Michael Porter Jr. is entering the 2022-23 season at full strength. After sitting out essentially an entire season following back surgery, the Denver Nuggets are whole, but what can they expect from the young wing?
It seems like a very long time ago, but just before the 2021-22 NBA season, Porter Jr. was one of the favorites to win the Most Improved Player award.
In 61 games the season prior, MPJ was awarded a starting spot by Michael Malone and he rewarded this promotion with an efficient 19 points per game. While shooting 54 percent from the floor, 46 percent from the 3-point line, and 79 percent from the free throw line, MPJ also pulled down 7.3 rebounds.
Michael Porter Jr. was also essential in the Nuggets’ first-round win against the Portland Trail Blazers with his combination of shooting and size proving too much, despite missing Jamal Murray. He was eventually picked apart by a veteran-laden Phoenix Suns team but it didn’t matter, MPJ was realizing his potential and he was here.
Before the 2021-22 season, some were wondering if Porter Jr. could handle a heavy scoring load for an entire season. Yes, he could put the ball in the basket, but after averaging more turnovers than assists (1.3 to 1.1), could the Denver Nuggets trust him with the ball in his hands?
Unfortunately, we never found out. After underperforming in nine games, MPJ was pulled from the lineup with a back injury and had to watch the rest of the season from the sidelines.
Fast-forward to today and MPJ is hoping to build on the same flashes that made him a Most Improved Player candidate, but now he’ll be alongside a fully healthy team with title aspirations.
Calvin Booth has wasted no time in shaping this Denver Nuggets roster to how he sees it: shooting and defense around the big three of Nikola Jokic, MPJ, and Murray. Instead of leaning on other ball-dominant players like Monte Morris and Will Barton, one of the big three will be on the court at all times and they’re the focal point.
While the process makes sense, the two injured stars have a lot to prove when they return on opening night. So what can we realistically expect from Michael Porter Jr.?
Realistic expectations for Michael Porter Jr.: Right back into form
After essentially missing an entire season, there’s a world in which MPJ comes right back as the player he was. If he had played the entirety of the 2021-22 season, MPJ would’ve just finished two of the fastest seasons due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
While Nikola Jokic hasn’t slowed down, in fact, he has won back-to-back MVPs, a player like Michael Porter Jr. without the same conditioning as the Big Honey could do with the rest.
Porter Jr. was in line to average 20-plus points this past season and by adding 3-and-D role players around him, he’ll have the opportunity to do the same in 2022-23.
At the start of this past season, Michael Malone was staggering MPJ and Jokic’s minutes, ensuring there’s at least one elite creator on the court at all times. Assuming he does the same next season, there may be bench combinations where Porter is the lone scorer on the court, buffing up his counting stats.
Whenever I think about MPJ’s potential, I always think back to an article by Rob Mahoney, The Ringer that featured this quote from Markus Howard:
"“The scary thing is: He’s not even 100 percent. That’s the thing that blows my mind. He was playing last year and had a historic season, and he was a shell of what he really is.”"
If 19 points per game on extreme efficiency is a “shell”, I can’t wait to see what the best-case scenario is.
Realistic expectations for Michael Porter Jr.: Slow-playing the return
Since Jamal Murray is also returning to the court on opening night (fingers crossed), the Denver Nuggets should have enough offensive firepower to be a top seed in the Western Conference. Throw the plug-and-play offensive engine that is Nikola Jokic and things should be fine in the regular season.
Because of this, the Nuggets can afford to slowly ease their stars into health. The training staff will likely be resting both of the stars throughout the season for injury management and they will get the opportunity to round into form by the playoffs.
This is the most likely outcome for Michael Porter Jr. as he wouldn’t have played an NBA game in a long time, it’s unfair to expect him to step right into prime form.
For a similar trajectory, look at how careful the Golden State Warriors were about Klay Thompson’s return. When he did make his debut against the Cleveland Cavaliers, he wasn’t allowed to play back-to-backs for months. It hurt his overall efficiency but he was ready to go in the Finals with no issues.
Realistic expectations for Michael Porter Jr.: Disaster
Back injuries are scary and extremely unpredictable and can be potentially career-ending.
It’s not like knee injuries that are much more predictable with a 12-month recovery schedule and ramp-up to playing. Players like the aforementioned Klay or Zach LaVine are able to come back from a serious knee injury and regain their form, even grow after it.
Michael Porter Jr. has now dealt with several back issues and while we’d like to say this is the last one, it’s too hard to predict.
All we know is that when he’s healthy and on the court, the Denver Nuggets are a title contender. Let’s hope he can stay healthy.