Two months have gone by since the start of the 2022-23 NBA season, and the Denver Nuggets are now beginning to hit their stride.
After a solid 10-7 start to the campaign, the Nuggets have won ten of their last 14 contests to capture the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference standings. However, their hold on the top spot is far from secure.
The race out west is as competitive as ever. At 20-11, Denver is one of six teams in the conference with at least 19 wins on the season and one of three who have cracked the 20-win mark.
Denver currently ranks top three in the league in offensive rating, field-goal percentage, and three-point percentage. On Nov. 13, the Nuggets were shooting a league-best 49.7 percent from the field, five weeks later, the team is somehow shooting even better at an absurd 50.3 percent clip.
Despite their elite offensive production, the Nuggets still have improvements to make before they can become a clear-cut title contender. In the spirit of the holiday season, here are three gifts Nuggets fans should be wishing for this Christmas.
Improved play from lineups without Nikola Jokic
A common theme from past seasons has carried over to Denver’s 2022-23 campaign – the Denver Nuggets need to step up their play when Nikola Jokic is out of the lineup.
As usual, Jokic’s incredible play has served as Denver’s primary catalyst this season as the Serbian superstar is averaging 24.9 points, 10.9 rebounds, and 9.3 assists on a career-best 61.5 percent clip from the field.
When he recently earned Western Conference Player of the Week honors, the Joker put up ridiculous averages of 36.0 points, 17.3 boards, and 8.7 dimes over a three-game span, including a 43-point outburst against Washington in which the big man sunk 17 of his 20 shots from the field. Jokic didn’t slow down as he rounded out the week with a historical 40-27-10 stat line in a dominant performance against Charlotte.
Unfortunately, when Jokic leaves the floor, the Denver Nuggets go from one of the best offenses out there to one of the least effective units in the entire league. Denver suffers a dramatic dip in production across several different categories when Jokic takes a seat on the sideline.
For starters, Denver’s offensive rating plummets by a whopping 18.5 points with their star center on the bench. With Jokic in the game, the Nuggets hold an offensive rating of 123.6, seven points better than the league-leading Phoenix Suns. When the Big Honey is missing from the lineup, Denver dips down to a 105.1 offensive rating, good for worst in the league by far.
On top of the significant swing in offensive rating, Denver’s assist percentage also takes a huge hit with Jokic off the floor. Jokic commands one of the best passing offenses in the league, fueled by a remarkable 69.3 AST%, a number that falls to 55.7 with Jokic off the court, on par with a bottom-five assist percentage in the NBA.
Jokic has missed only three games this season, but in those three games, the Nuggets went 1-2 overall and averaged a porous 100.0 points per game on 44.4 percent shooting from the field and 34.7 percent shooting from deep. In those three games, albeit a small sample size, Denver was outscored by a total of 30 points.
In the 27 games where Jokic has played, the Nuggets have averaged 17 more points per contest and shot close to seven percent higher from the floor.
Defensively, the team has also struggled without Jokic. Thanks to a five-point dip in defensive rating, the Nuggets own an awful -13.5 net rating without the Joker. Furthermore, Denver’s net rating increases by an enormous 23.5 points with Jokic in the game, perhaps the most mind-boggling stat of them all.
The bottom line is that Denver struggles to stay afloat when the back-to-back MVP is not on the floor. The sheer volume of open layups and three-pointers the Joker creates for his teammates on a nightly basis cannot be understated and Jokic’s ability to set up everyone around him for high-quality shots is as incredible as it is overlooked.
Moving forward, Michael Malone needs to experiment with new second-unit lineups. Out of five lineups without Jokic that have seen at least 20 minutes of action this season, only one has recorded a positive net rating thus far.
If the Denver Nuggets can at least become an average group when their best player is off the floor, fans will be satisfied.
Full health for Michael Porter Jr.
Following a 14-game absence with a heel strain that kept him sidelined since Nov. 22, Michael Porter Jr. finally returned to action last night against the Portland Trailblazers.
A long stretch of full health for MPJ could serve as the most satisfying Christmas gift of all for Nuggets fans. After all, fans have had to endure the injury woes of Porter ever since Denver drafted the talented wing in 2018.
The versatile scorer started this season on fire from beyond the arc, nailing 42.7 percent of his treys through 16 games before the heel injury halted his momentum.
Since he entered the league, MPJ has missed more games for Denver than he has played, so If he can stay healthy, Porter Jr. will help Denver in more ways than one.
Aside from the obvious scoring boost he can provide with his 16.4 points per game, MPJ also impacts the Nuggets on the other side of the ball. Despite his early history of struggles as an isolation defender, MPJ has actually contributed to the Nuggets defense in a big way this season.
While Bruce Brown has filled in valiantly during Porter Jr.’s absence, the starting five has taken a defensive hit with Brown in the unit. In 11 games together, the original starting unit of Jokic-Murray-Gordon-MPJ-Caldwell-Pope has recorded an impressive 101.7 defensive rating, as opposed to a 112.2 rating when Brown replaces MPJ. The starting five with MPJ excels on offense as well, posting a fantastic 18.5 net rating.
In order for the Nuggets to eventually reach their peak as a championship-caliber team, they will need the talent of MPJ present and healthy, which, based on early indicators, could come as soon as this spring.
The gift of a fully healthy Michael Porter Jr. could go a long way in securing the greatest gift of all: a first-ever championship for the Denver Nuggets.
More aggression from Nikola Jokic
Nikola Jokic is currently averaging just 15.0 field goal attempts per game, his lowest amount in three seasons. However, he has begun to ramp up his shot attempts in recent weeks.
Over his last ten games, the reigning MVP is taking 18.6 shots per contest on 59.7 percent shooting with per-game averages of 28.9 points, 12.9 rebounds, and 9.8 assists. Jokic’s last two campaigns saw him average 17.7 field goal attempts and 18.0 field goal attempts, respectively. So, clearly, Jokic can provide as much value as anyone without shooting.
While displaying MVP-level basketball with the best record in his conference, Jokic sits outside of the league’s top fifty players in field goal attempts per game. After all, the gifted big man does more with his touches than just about anybody else in the league.
Even so, Denver thrives when Jokic is aggressive with the basketball. Since drafting Jokic, the Nuggets have won 61.1 percent of the games in which the Joker takes 15 or more shots, although, the team has won a slightly worse 55.3 percent of games when Jokic attempts less than 15 shots.
When Nikola Jokic initiates the offense with an added level of aggression, the floor opens up even more for himself and his teammates. Whether he is doubled in the post or challenged in an isolation situation down low, Jokic typically finds a way to produce a bucket for his team.
The two-man game between Jokic and Jamal Murray has remained effective during the Blue Arrow’s comeback campaign. This proven one-two punch highlights the impact an aggressive version of Jokic can have on Murray and other guards beside him.
After all, it is no coincidence that Bruce Brown is putting together a career year in scoring while Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is posting career-highs in field goal and three-point percentage.
Nikola Jokic brings out the very best in the Denver Nuggets when he plays with an aggressive mindset. While Jokic’s version of high aggression doesn’t always come in the form of isolating and shooting in high volume, the two-time MVP certainly gets the job done.