Nikola Jokic’s MVP odds signal massive advantage to win third straight MVP

Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports /

Denver Nuggets big man Nikola Jokic is attempting to become the first player since Larry Bird to win three straight league MVP awards, and it’s looking like he’s on track to do so.

Jokic is a massive favorite in the latest MVP odds, moving from +350 a few months ago to -250. I may have signaled this could be coming given his numbers early on in the season.

The two-time MVP has led Denver to the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference, and the Nuggets have a healthy five-game lead on the Memphis Grizzlies for the top spot with the league at the All-Star break.

Jokic’s on/off numbers have been something to behold the last few seasons, posting a +16.4 on/off split for the Nuggets per 100 possessions last season. Somehow, even with Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. back, Jokic is going even more this season.

The Nuggets are +13.7 points per 100 possessions when Jokic is on the floor and -10.5 points per 100 possessions when he’s off, making his net rating an insane +24.2 this season.

Just give the man the MVP.

ESPN’s straw poll, which switched in Jokic’s favor last season before he won the award, recently came out with Jokic receiving 77 of the first place votes. The only player to have double-digit first place votes outside of Jokic was Milwaukee Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Here’s a look at the latest odds, and why fans should brace for another MVP for the Joker.

Odds to win MVP in 2022-23 NBA season

Nikola Jokic given 71 percent chance to win MVP

Jokic is set as a massive favorite to win the league’s MVP at this point in the season at -250 odds.

Based on implied probability, oddsmakers are giving Jokic a 71.43 percent chance to come away with the award.

Since ESPN’s poll actually targets people who vote for the MVP, it’s a key indicator of how the official vote will go down at the end of the season.

If Denver finishes with the best record in the West and maintains the No. 1 offense, there’s no choice for MVP this season but Jokic.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.