Vegas gives Nuggets insane implied probability of winning NBA Finals

May 20, 2023; Los Angeles, California, USA; Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15) reacts in the fourth quarter against the Los Angeles Lakers during game three of the Western Conference Finals for the 2023 NBA playoffs at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
May 20, 2023; Los Angeles, California, USA; Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15) reacts in the fourth quarter against the Los Angeles Lakers during game three of the Western Conference Finals for the 2023 NBA playoffs at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Denver Nuggets have never won an NBA title, but that’s expected to change in the eyes of oddsmakers in the 2023 NBA Finals against the Miami Heat.

Denver is favored by -400 to anywhere as high as -450 against Miami, making it the second-largest favorite in NBA Finals history.

It makes sense that the Nuggets, the No. 1 seed in the West, are favored against this Miami team (a No. 8 seed), but just how likely is it that Denver hoists the Larry O’Brien trophy when it’s all said and done?

Here is the implied probability for the Nuggets to win this series:

Denver Nuggets odds to win the NBA championship

At -400, the Nuggets have an implied probability of 80.0 percent to win this series.

It’s worth noting that the Heat were actually bigger underdogs in the Eastern Conference Finals against the Boston Celtics, but they still came away victorious in seven games.

There are plenty of reasons to love Denver in this series, starting with the team’s dominance at home all season long. The Nuggets are a perfect 8-0 in the playoffs at Ball Arena and were 34-7 at home in the regular season.

That, coupled with Denver’s elite offensive attack, should make the team a nightmare to defend for Miami.

This postseason, the Nuggets rank:

  • First in offensive rating
  • First in net rating
  • First in rebounding percentage
  • First in assist to turnover ratio
  • First in true shooting percentage
  • First in turnover percentage

Denver also has a ton of shooting, with all five of the team’s starters shooting above 35.0 percent from beyond the arc in the playoffs.

The Heat have made an impressive and improbable run to make it to the NBA Finals, but only one other No. 8 seed has even made the Finals (the 1999 New York Knicks). Oddsmakers think the Cinderella run stops here for Miami with Denver set as such a huge favorite.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.