The Denver Nuggets are one win away from an NBA Championship game, which means that it could be the last time for us to bet on NBA games until October.
While you can check out our full game preview for Game 5 here, this is going to focus on prop bets for two Nuggets role players in Bruce Brown and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope as well as Heat star Bam Adebayo.
Here’s my three favorite props for Game 5.
Best prop bets for Heat-Nuggets Game 5
- Bruce Brown UNDER 17.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-115)
- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope OVER 1.5 Three’s (+110)
- Bam Adebayo OVER 14.5 Rebounds and Assists (-110)
Bruce Brown UNDER 17.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists
Brown had a monster fourth quarter in Game 4 that felt like the difference in the game, but I’m going to fade him in Game 5. He finished the game with 21 points, four rebounds and two assists, including 11 points in the final five-plus minutes. However, prior to that, he stayed under in the three prior games despite playing similar minutes.
If not for Brown’s monster fourth, he likely would have stayed under this prop bet, so I’ll bank on some natural regression and fade the trendy name following his heroic Game 4.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope OVER 1.5 Three’s
We were on this bet in Game 4, and the odds haven’t changed heading into Game 5 despite him clearing this number. Back at home, I like the wing to get over this mark yet again. KCP took more three’s in Game 4 than in any other game (5) and got the necessary two three’s.
Caldwell-Pope has shot over 45% from beyond the arc in home games during the postseason after shooting 43% in the regular season at Ball Arena. With his typical volume, I can’t stay off this prop at + money.
Bam Adebayo OVER 14.5 Rebounds and Assists
Adebayo cleared this mark in two of four games while posting totals of 18, 13, 20 and 14. With Miami’s backs against the wall, I expect a full serving of minutes from the team’s lone viable big man and for him to go over this mark.
It boils down to the amount of chances Adebayo has at both rebounds and assists. The big man is second to Nikola Jokic in rebound chances this season with nearly 19 per game, per NBA.com, and is also getting nearly eight assist chances per game. While Miami needs to cash in on shots from the perimeter to help get Adebayo the necessary assists, I believe that an adjustment from Miami will be for Adebayo to look to facilitate more given that Denver has been daring the big man to shoot.
Adebayo has averaged nearly 20 shots per game, well above his season average, with zero three-point attempts. I’m sure Erik Spoelstra would rather turn those shots into three’s for role players based off Adebayo’s facilitating and screen setting.
I think this is the best way to play the big man.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.