The way Nikola Jokic has started the 2024-25 season for the Nuggets should lead people to assume he’s a virtual lock to win the league’s MVP award. His play has been head and shoulders above his contemporaries and he’s among the league leaders in almost every statistical category - both advanced and traditional.
The numbers for Jokic almost seem to defy logic. Despite the fact that he has won three of the last four MVP awards, he’s setting his own personal bests across the board. He’s averaging a ridiculous 32.3 points, 13.6 rebounds, and 10.2 assists per game so far.
On top of that, he’s near the top of the league in steals per game and he has raised his three-point shooting volume as well as his efficiency to an unsustainable 50% on 4.4 attempts per game. If Jokic keeps this up (or even if he falls off a bit), he should be the runaway leader in the clubhouse for MVP.
He’s the undisputed best player in the world right now and he’s playing better than he ever has. And yet, it’s still going to take a lot of things to go right for him to actually capture his fourth MVP award in five years. Here are three major reasons why it may not be a foregone conclusion.
1.) Team Performance
One thing that could derail Jokic’s campaign would be the performance of his team. Historically, the award has gone to a player on a top-tier team, but lately, the Nuggets are trending toward being a .500 team.
They’re struggling to stack wins together and ultimately, if the team can’t get a top 4 seed or win 45+ games, it’s going to be very hard for the voters to reward Jokic even if he’s clearly the best player in the league.
2.) Voter Fatigue
At a certain point, human nature takes over for the voters and they are drawn to something new and different. We saw it happen with Michael Jordan and LeBron James. Recently we even saw it happen with guys like James Harden and Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Once you’ve won the award, the bar is raised. Fair or not, Jokic will be held to a higher standard because he’s won the award three times already. He’s not only competing against his peers, he’s competing against himself. Don’t be surprised if the voters are blinded by a flashy new toy like Luka Doncic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, or Jayson Tatum.
3.) Legacy Tax
And the other main reason that voters may opt for change is the historical precedent. Another MVP award would make four for the Joker, which would put him into elite company with only five other players; Kareem Abdul-Jabbar has 6, Bill Russell and Michael Jordan have 5, and Wilt Chamberlain and LeBron James have won the award 4 times.
Voters are only supposed to be deciding on the league’s most valuable player for the 2024-25 season, but these are basketball historians and they know what’s at stake. They are going to be asking themselves whether Jokic is worthy of entering a conversation with the top 5 players in league history.
Right or wrong, that’s what’s at stake and you can bet that it will be on the minds of voters in a few months. I don’t think it should matter; if he deserves the award he should get it. But that’s not always the case, and the reality is that Jokic is going to have to go above and beyond to bring home this trophy again.