The Aaron Gordon injury is bad, but not the end of the world as long as he can come back in 4-6 weeks and put this hamstring issue behind him. That’s certainly no guarantee, but the bigger issue might be what happens to their seeding in the meantime.
The general assumption through one month of the season has been that the Thunder and Nuggets are head and shoulders above the competition and on a collision course for an epic Western Conference Finals.
The only problem with that logic is that it assumes that OKC and Denver will each finish as top-three seeds in the West. But the West is loaded at the top, and now that the Nuggets will be without Gordon and Christian Braun for at least a month, they are in serious jeopardy of falling in the standings.
The Nuggets have already dropped two games since the injuries, and they’re tied in the loss column with the Lakers and Rockets, with the Spurs and Suns breathing down their neck. If they go through a cold stretch, there’s a real chance they find themselves outside of the top three in the West.
Nuggets must secure top 3 seed in West
If that’s the case, it’s going to be an uphill battle to get back in the top three and will require good health and likely some luck elsewhere. Meanwhile, the Thunder have gotten off to a 17-1 start to the season, and their second-best player, Jalen Williams, hasn’t even played in a game yet.
They seem about as locked in to the number one seed as a team can be. So, that means if the Nuggets fall to the fourth or fifth seed, they’ll be on track to play the Thunder in round two, ahead of the conference finals.
This is what happened last season, and it ultimately led to the Nuggets’ downfall. They need to earn homecourt advantage for as many rounds as possible, and they need to make sure they face the least resistance possible before squaring off with OKC. If they have to go through a tough 4/5 matchup, only to play a well-rested, likely unchallenged Thunder team in round two, they could be in big trouble.
The Nuggets need to hold the fort and steady themselves in the standings so they avoid the same fate as last season. They can’t let other West teams off the hook, and they can’t make their path tougher than it has to be.
Beating the Thunder is going to be a massive challenge and will require the best that Denver has to offer. If they create more work for themselves in the meantime, it’s going to be an incredibly deep hole to have to climb out of.