Legendary coach Phil Jackson once secured nine NBA titles in the span of 12 seasons between 1991 and 2002. He secured his first six with Michael Jordan and the Chicago Bulls and then added the Los Angeles Lakers three-peat with Kobe Bryant and Shaquille O’Neal. In all of those runs, his teams satisfied what he calls the 40-20 rule. The Denver Nuggets no longer satisfy the rule.
What is the 40-20 rule? It is pretty simple. Historically, in order for a team to win the NBA championship in any given season, they need to win 40 games before they reach 20 losses. While it is an arbitrary rule created by Phil Jackson, it has been a fairly accurate one when looking at the results, even counting the 2023 Denver Nuggets who did abide by the rule.
Since the 1983-1984 NBA season, when the playoffs were expanded to 16 teams, 76% of teams that made the NBA finals abided by this 40-20 rule. Even more staggering, a whopping 90% of teams that won the NBA championship satisfied Phil Jackson’s requirement of 40 wins prior to 20 losses.
The only exceptions to title teams that did not hit 40 wins in their first 59 games were the 1995 Houston Rockets, who traded for Clyde Drexler mid-season, the 2004 Detroit Pistons who traded for Rasheed Wallace mid-season, the 2006 Miami Heat, who began the season 30-20 before winning 10 games in a row to hit 40-20, and the 2021 covid-season Milwaukee Bucks.
Despite uphill climb, Nuggets can still easily become exception
Entering Saturday night, the Nuggets were the hottest team in the NBA, winning 9 games in a row. They sat at an impressive 38-19 record and the #2 seed in the Western Conference. Sadly, the Los Angeles Lakers and their newest star, Luka Doncic, tore the Nuggets to pieces and handed them their 20th loss with a 123-100 win. Is this an actual issue for Denver’s championship odds though?
Despite not satisfying the 40-20 rule, no other team in the west has satisfied the Phil Jackson math equation either, outside of the Oklahoma City Thunder, who sit at 45-10. The Memphis Grizzlies are still pending, as they find themselves at 37-19, but must win three straight to add themselves to the club.
The Nuggets should still be in a great spot to make the Western Conference Finals, but it gets tricky after that if they do indeed face off the Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the young but uber-talented Thunder team. Surely Denver will be up for the challenge and once you get into the conference finals and/or finals, anything can happen.
Eastern Conference teams that qualify for the 40-20 rule consist of the Cleveland Cavaliers (40-16), Boston Celtics (40-16), and potentially the New York Knicks (37-19). Denver can in theory hang with any of these teams if given the chance, but Nuggets fans would be feeling a lot better if the team had the Phil Jackson stamp of approval.