Bill Simmons and the Ringer are shifting gears and starting to ramp up for the upcoming NBA season, and in his most recent pod with Zach Lowe, Simmons called the Nuggets the best bet to win the title. He waxed poetic about their offseason, praising the added depth and emphasizing how vital that is and was just proven to be with the Thunder/Pacers Finals matchup.
This was exactly the point of the offseason and exactly what the Nuggets needed. Fans have watched the team run out of gas in back-to-back playoffs because Nikola Jokic and the rest of the starters were ground into dust.
Part of that can be blamed on the coaching staff, and part can be blamed on the front office. But now, both parties have been fired, and the new regime has gone all in on stacking the roster with an extremely versatile bench.
Thunder still favorites, but value on Nuggets
The Nuggets aren’t favored to win it all; that honor still rightfully belongs to the Thunder. OKC just won the title, then proceeded to lose no meaningful players, while adding another lottery pick. Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams should be a year older and a year better, and there’s no reason the reigning MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, should slow down at all.
OKC deserves to be favored, but Simmons’ point was based on value and odds. DraftKings currently has the Thunder as +235 favorites to win it all, with the Nuggets’ odds all the way down at +650. That’s a pretty massive difference considering that Denver just took the Thunder to game 7 a few months ago with a one-armed Michael Porter Jr., a one-legged Aaron Gordon, and an extremely heavy dose of Russell Westbrook, and not much else coming off the bench.
The Thunder may still be a better overall team and more likely to win the championship, but the gap between the two teams has shrunken dramatically, and there’s plenty of value in taking the team with much better odds.
On top of that, if things get tight, the Nuggets still have the best player in the world in Jokic. He was simply overmatched last season, but now he has a whole cavalry of reinforcements that should allow him to stay fresh during the regular season and play his best in the playoffs when the chips are on the table.
It’s an exciting proposition, and it’s nice to hear some of the national media catching on to what an offseason it was in Denver. I’m not advocating for gambling, and people should always be responsible, but if you’re so inclined, the Nuggets seem like a pretty solid value right now.