Jamal Murray is off to a great start this season, something he hasn’t been able to do in past years. All of the focus, rightfully, is on his stellar play out of the gate, but it has covered up the underlying reality that the Nuggets still go as Murray goes.
Yes, we’ve seen a revamped bench and a deeper roster make an impact; we saw Tim Hardaway Jr. score 20 points off the bench the other night in a win, and we’ve actually gotten competent center play when Nikola Jokic rests.
We’ve also seen an Aaron Gordon 50-burger and more improvement from Christian Braun and Peyton Watson. We’ve seen innovation from the new coaching staff, led by David Adelman as well. There are many reasons for optimism in Denver, and this team is clearly much better suited to navigate the grind of an 82-game regular season.
But once the playoffs start, this team is still going to need the superstar version of Murray to have any chance of competing with the elite teams.
Depth doesn’t matter without stars
We’ve highlighted the importance of depth, especially with recent success stories like the Thunder and Celtics. At the same time, the depth was only so vital because it was boosting up stars like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Jayson Tatum, and Jaylen Brown.
Those players showed up and carried their teams during their respective championship runs, and the role players stepped up and carried the rest of the load. But if the stars had faltered, the depth wouldn’t have made much difference.
That’s the case with this Nuggets team as well. The depth is great. It should allow them to win more games, to be fresher and healthier for the postseason, and to create more versatility, flexibility, optionality, and potential adjustments.
Yet, once the playoffs actually begin, it’s going to come down to the play of the top line guys. Most of the starters will likely play 35-40 minutes a night, and if those minutes aren’t extremely positive, the Nuggets will be in trouble.
Yes, the bench players will help. Yes, Jokic can carry an insanely large burden. Yes, Gordon, Cam Johnson, and Braun are extremely solid 3-5 starters. But without Murray playing like a bona fide second star, this team simply doesn’t have enough juice.
Luckily, he’s more than capable of playing that way. We’ve seen it in the playoffs time and again, and we’re seeing it right now. Hopefully, he has finally turned a corner, and this is the start of a career season. If so, the rest will take care of itself, and the Nuggets will be well-positioned to win another title led by Jokic and Murray.