The Denver Nuggets ended their stalemate with Peyton Watson by sending him to the Cavaliers in last week's sign-and-trade. He signed a four-year, $88 million deal with Cleveland, averaging $22 million per year. That's not the $25 million he hoped for, comparable to what Christian Braun received, but it's still quite a payday for the 23-year-old.
The Cavaliers hope the contract will prove a steal, given Watson's skill set and the higher price tag for players of his archetype. What they don't want to happen is for the smaller sample size they paid him off of to look more like an outlier in retrospect.
Watson had a hot January, averaging 21.9 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 3.0 assists per game, shooting 49% from the field and 46.2% from three as a starter. That happened over 15 games, less than 20% of an 82-game regular season. Outside of that stretch, he averaged 7.7 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 1.2 assists, shooting 47.4% from the field and 34.2% from deep.
Cavs hope Watson will be who he was in January
The above numbers are part of what put Denver in an even more difficult position when negotiating with Watson's camp. The Nuggets were already strapped financially entering the offseason, and paying P-Wat would've put them over the second tax apron. However, that happened anyway when they matched the Thunder's offer sheet for Spencer Jones.
Of course, Denver could've traded one of its other players, like Cam Johnson, to relieve some financial pressure, but the front office believed its best route was to move on from Watson. By doing so, they avoided the potential regret of paying him largely based on a 15-game stretch.
It was worth the gamble for Cleveland, even with the price it paid, as the cost of two-way players around the NBA has only gone up. The Cavaliers have long been searching for an addition who fits that bill, and they bought a player early whose value can keep rising.
He'll get to start in Cleveland, as he did during the stretch that resulted in his new contract, so there's reason for the Cavaliers to believe that, with a starting role, he'll continue on that trajectory. But if he isn't the two-way contributor he was for Denver during the winter, the $88 million he will make, which includes a $23.5 million player option in 2029-30, won't look so good.
This isn't to argue that the Nuggets were right to let Watson go, as that's another issue in itself, but they don't have to worry about it being another financial decision they wish they could have back.
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