Christian Braun extension will have shocking, painful consequences for Nuggets

The Nuggets were able to come to an 11th-hour agreement with Christian Braun on a very reasonable (arguably even team-friendly) five year, $125 million extension. On the surface, this is great news for Denver, but the underlying issues will come next summer when they’ll have no choice but to split up the core.

Jake Fischer reported that sources are telling him the Nuggets have indicated that ownership does not want to pay the tax next year. But after adding Braun’s $21.5 million hit, the Nuggets will owe over $193 million to six players, their starting lineup plus Zeke Nnaji.

With the tax line projected at $201 million, that leaves the Nuggets with roughly $8 million to fill out the roster with at least eight more players. In other words, that’s not happening. Even with minimum deals, the team would be well over the tax.

Just picking up the options on DaRon Holmes, Julian Strawther, and Jalen Pickett - which should all be no-brainers - that’s another $10.6 million, which would put Denver over the tax with just nine players on the roster. 

That would include turning down team options for Jonas Valanciunas and Hunter Tyson, allowing Peyton Watson to walk in restricted free agency, and saying goodbye to Bruce Brown and Tim Hardaway Jr.

Nuggets will be forced to trade key player

Realistically, even if they filled out the roster as cheaply as possible, gutting the team’s depth, they’d be well over the tax, likely over the first apron ($210 million), and possibly even trending toward the second apron ($223 million). And that would significantly lower the talent level of the team, an unforgivable sin going into what will be Nikola Jokic’s age 31 season.

There are essentially two possible outcomes that can play out. The first, and more favorable one, is that the Kroenkes suck it up and pay the tax, delivering on their message of doing everything to win in the Jokic era. Sadly, that’s the less likely outcome, as we know how badly they want to avoid the repeater tax.

The more likely, and upsetting outcome, is that the Nuggets will trade away a big piece to clear salary and get below the tax. Jokic will be making over $59 million, and he’s obviously not going anywhere. So that leaves Jamal Murray $50+ million), Aaron Gordon ($32 million), or Cam Johnson ($23+ million).

Frankly, Johnson’s $23 mill may not even be enough to accomplish the team’s financial goals and allow them to keep any depth. Amazingly and unfortunately, that means there’s a very real chance that this is the last season of Jokic, Murray, and Gordon together. It’s a grim reality, but it’s the most probable path, all things considered.

We’ll have plenty of time to lose our minds over this if, and when it plays out (and we will), but for now, let’s take a breath, be grateful the Nuggets signed Braun on such a nice deal, and get ready to savor every second of this season, that hopefully ends with another title.