Okay, sure. Denver Nuggets fans know that we're probably not going to see the Nuggets pull out a one-seed and have a better record than both the San Antonio Spurs and the Oklahoma City Thunder. But a three seed sounds good! However, that bar is still higher than what Nuggets head coach David Adelman has for his team. His bar is lower, and that could signal that he's going to be cautious with his players this season and put rest ahead of a few regular-season wins.
Adelman said after practice on the eve of the NBA's regular season that he was only targeting an expected top-six finish in the West for the Nuggets, which seems low, but he explained why.
"I would say that our expectation is trying to get in the top six. You're in the top six in the West, you can win the West. I'd love to be one. You know, last year we were three. Year before we were four. So if you look over the 10 years we've had here with these runs, we've been in every spot, you know. We've been in really good spots and not won, you know," Adelman said.
Adelman definitely knows he's got a good squad. The team is seemingly deeper than he thought, and he understands that avoiding the Thunder and Spurs in the first round, the likely top two seeds, is the real goal. But I think there's another reason he's being coy about that has him just aiming for a top-six seed. Rest.
Adelman could be looking to get his big three more rest
If you think about it, getting rest for the big three, Nikola Jokic, Aaron Gordon, and Jamal Murray, should be of the utmost importance over having home-court advantage against either the Houston Rockets, Los Angeles Lakers, or Minnesota Timberwolves, the likely three-through-sixth seeds along with the Nuggets. The Nuggets can handle those teams, if they're healthy, at least.
Last year, without Gordon, the Nuggets were a totally different team against the Timberwolves in the first round of the playoffs. Gordon was healthy in Game 1 of the series, a 116-105 victory that made it look like it would be an easy series win. But he didn't look the same in Game 2 when his calf got tight, and the Nuggets lost.
It snowballed with Gordon out in Game 3, and the Nuggets were cooked from there on out. Thankfully, rookie second-round athletic specimen Trevon Brazile has emerged as a capable replacement for Gordon, and it should allow the Nuggets to focus on keeping Mr. Nugget on the floor in the playoffs.
Jokic may not want to rest much, but having Murray fresh and probably even giving 37-year-old sixth man DeMar DeRozan a few extra games off towards the end of the season would do them both good. And I think that's why Adelman's bar is somewhere in the top six, and not just third. A healthy sixth-seed Nuggets is more dangerous than a banged-up third-seed.
