When analyzing the NBA and trying to project forward, there isn’t much that people agree on, but it does seem clear that there are a top two in the Western Conference: the Thunder and Spurs. But after that, there are plenty of varying opinions about the next group of teams, which features the Rockets, the Timberwolves, the Lakers, and the Nuggets.
Depending on who you ask and what the question is, you’re liable to get four different answers in terms of which of those teams has the best chance of success in either the regular season or the playoffs.
But according to ESPN’s Basketball Power Index, a metric that takes into account currently available players, players who should be available for the playoffs, win totals, schedules, and other factors to evaluate teams and project results, there shouldn’t be any debate.
BPI likes Nuggets over T-Wolves, Rockets, & Lakers
The BPI numbers have the Nuggets as the 7th-best team overall, third in the West, slightly ahead of the T-Wolves (8th), Rockets (10th), and Lakers (13th). They project Denver for 48.7 wins and an offensive BPI of 4.1, which is first in the entire NBA.
They also have Denver as the team with the third-highest odds of making the playoffs in the West, with a 96.9% chance, with the Wolves, Rockets, and Lakers behind them in that order.
And there’s no difference in the order when it comes to projecting success in the playoffs, as the BPI also pegs the Nuggets as the West team with the third-best chance of winning the title. The Thunder are heavy favorites with a 28.4% chance of winning it all, with the Spurs just behind them at 22.3%.
Nuggets have third-best chance to win the West
The drop-off from there is massive, as they list the 76ers as the next most likely team to raise a banner, at 8.6%. But the next West team is the Nuggets, with a 3.4% chance of winning the 2027 championship. After that, it’s the Wolves at 2.7%, the Rockets at 2.1%, and the Lakers at 1.7%.
Obviously, these percentages aren’t massive, the gaps aren’t that wide, and at the end of the day, they are just projections, but still, it’s telling that Denver leads the way in every version of the system. This takes out the human element and just focuses on what’s tangible, and that’s all saying that the Nuggets are squarely in the mix.
The offseason was ugly at times, the ending to last season was extremely ugly, the depth is highly questionable, and the stars aren’t getting any younger. And still, when you lay it all out like this, the Nuggets are clearly the third-best team in the Western Conference, and if anyone other than the Spurs or Thunder is going to reach the promised land, Denver is still the safest bet.
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