Every possible playoff scenario for the Nuggets entering last day of regular season

Believe it or not, the final day of the NBA regular season is here. Through ups and downs, the Nuggets find themselves in a solid position, all things considered. Since firing head coach Michael Malone and GM Calvin Booth on Tuesday, Denver has gone 2-0 with David Adelman acting as interim coach.

The Nuggets enter Sunday with a 49-32 record as they sit in fourth place in the Western Conference. The top three seed have been clinched; the Thunder are the one seed, the Rockets are the two seed, and the Lakers are the third seed. Everything beyond that is completely up for grabs.

If Nuggets beat the Rockets, they clinch the #4 seed

The simplest scenario on Sunday is if the Nuggets win at Houston. The Rockets have already wrapped up the two seed and will be resting players. If the Nuggets just win this game, they will clinch the four seed in the West and homecourt advantage in the first round.

Their most likely opponent in this scenario would be the Los Angeles Clippers, but there are a few possibilities that could see the rival TImberwolves move up to fifth and face Denver in round one. But if the Nuggets and Clippers win on Sunday (playing the Warriors), they will face off in the 4/5 matchup, with Denver being fourth.

If Nuggets lose to Rockets, chaos ensues

That part is all pretty straightforward and reasonable, but if the Nuggets lose, that’s when things get interesting. For one, a loss on Sunday would automatically eliminate them from any chance at the four seed, guaranteeing they’d be on the road to start round one.

If the Nuggets lose and the Clippers win, the Clippers will be the four seed. If the Nuggets lose and the Timberwolves win (playing the Jazz), Minnesota will be the fourth or fifth seed. So if Denver loses, and the Clippers and Timberwolves both win, then the Nuggets will be the six seed and take on the Lakers in the first round.

Play-in tournament still on the table for Nuggets

If the Nuggets lose, but the Timberwolves lose as well (not likely), the Nuggets would be the five seed and take on the Clippers in round one. If the Nuggets were to lose, the Warriors beat the Clippers, and the Timberwolves win, then Denver would fall all the way to seventh and be forced into the play-in tournament where they’d have to fight just to make the playoffs.

In that scenario, the Nuggets would host the 7/8 game against the Grizzlies. Getting out of OKC’s bracket and drawing the Rockets in round one wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world, but it’s a lot to risk for one game against a pretty good team. If the Nuggets lost that game, they’d play the winner of the Mavericks/Kings 9/10 game with the loser being eliminated before the playoffs even begin.

There’s still a tremendous amount to play for on the final day of the regular season. Win and get the four seed is the simplest and most likely outcome on the table. If they lose, they’ll be the five, six, or seven seed. It’s a lot to process as you watch the games this afternoon. In a pinch, reference this handy chart for any last-minute queries.