It was starting to look like the Lakers had all but locked up the door and thrown away the key to the third seed in the Western Conference playoff standings. But suddenly, an injury to their top two options, MVP candidate Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves, could put their remaining five games in jeopardy.
And thanks to the Nuggets' clutch 136-134 victory over the Spurs, they're within striking distance of slipping through the door to the third seed, which up until a few days ago, looked held shut.
First, it was Doncic who went down with a hamstring injury in a blowout loss to the Thunder. Doncic injured the left hamstring early in the game but was cleared to return. He'll miss the rest of the regular season.
Doncic will now be joined on the bench by Reaves, who will also miss the remainder of the season with an oblique injury. Reaves is expected to miss four to six weeks. It's an unfortunate loss for the Lakers, losing their top two scorers. But the Lakers' misfortune could benefit the Nuggets.
It's a long shot, but long shots happen
The odds could be stacked against the Nuggets, but that doesn't mean they can't rally to the third seed. Nobody gave Leicester City a chance to win the English Premier League in 2015-16. They opened the season at 5,000-1 odds and still shocked everyone.
The Nuggets are a half-game back and do not have the tiebreaker against the Lakers, but they have momentum, having won eight in a row, their longest streak of the season. And despite having the third most difficult remaining schedule, the Nuggets could have an easier road than it appears on paper.
The Nuggets have games against the Thunder and Spurs left, but both of them could be resting their stars or playing them dramatically less because their playoff seeds could be decided already. The other two games are against the Blazers, whom they've had no problem with, and the tanking Grizzlies.
The Lakers drew an easy schedule to finish the season
The Lakers have the 21st-most difficult schedule remaining, which could be the difference. Losing your top two scorers makes it difficult enough, but the Lakers will have games against the tanking Jazz and Mavericks, two games they should still win. But the Warriors, Suns, and Thunder will obviously present much more difficult challenges.
If the Lakers go 2-3 and the Nuggets finish 3-1, the Nuggets leapfrog the Lakers into the third seed, into a likely date with the Timberwolves, a team they know all too well in the playoffs. But the important caveat is that they would get the Spurs in round two if they advance instead of the Thunder,
That's important. The Nuggets are 5-2 in seven career meetings between Nikola Jokic and Victor Wembanyama. Putting the Thunder off until the Western Conference Finals is the scenario the Nuggets want most.