No matter how this season ends for the Nuggets, there are going to be a lot of huge stories to follow this offseason in Denver. Nikola Jokic’s supermax extension is obviously the biggest and most important thing to watch for, but that feels like a borderline certainty barring some sort of complete crisis.
But in terms of things that are not certain, the future of Peyton Watson is the most intriguing situation to watch. In the fall, the team had a chance to agree to rookie extensions with players entering year four. In a move that seemed understandable at the time, Denver chose to sign Christian Braun to a five-year, $125 million extension, but didn’t reach a deal with Watson.
Fast forward a few months, and Watson looks like a budding star, clearly one of the best two-way players on the Nuggets, and perhaps a better and more important player on both ends of the floor than Braun. It’s clear that P-Wat should be a core part of this team moving forward, but thanks to past financial decisions, that’s not going to be easy.
That task got even tougher on Monday as Shams Charania of ESPN reported that the NBA salary cap is now projected to come in $1 million lower than previous projections. That applies to the luxury tax line, first apron, and second apron as well. Based on past comments from Josh Kroenke, it’s fair to assume the Nuggets won’t be in the second apron next year, so they now have a million dollars fewer to fill out the roster
Nuggets must get creative to keep Watson this summer
With Watson set to hit restricted free agency, he’s going to be a hot commodity on the open market, and with Denver’s ballooning payroll, they aren’t going to be able to match offers without going into the second apron, which they are wont to do.
Denver is already on the hook for over $198 million next season in guaranteed contracts for just their five starters: Jokic, Braun, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, and Cam Johnson. They also owe Zeke Nnaji $7.46 million and have a non-guaranteed $10 million for Jonas Valanciunas.
Even if they manage to shed both of those deals, they’ll be at almost $200 million for five players, with the second apron now projected at $222 million. That leaves under $24 million to spend on at least nine players.
You don’t have to be a math genius to realize that doesn’t leave nearly enough money to make a competitive offer to Watson. The only way they are going to be able to keep him is if they trade one of their starters. This was already the case before the cap projections came in even lower, but the further financial crunch just means this is now more true than ever.
Ben Tenzer, Jon Wallace, and the rest of the Nuggets’ front office are going to have their hands full this summer, and they can’t afford to mess this up.